Skip to main content

Thursday Morning Matthew Update - forecast to get stronger as it moves along FL East Coast

Hurricane Matthew is moving NW through the Bahamas and heading toward the East Coast of Florida.  It is a Category 4 storm now, but it is forecast to get stronger this afternoon and tonight. 

The forecast track shows Matthew starting to impact South Florida this afternoon with tropical storm force winds and heavy rain.  Conditions will go downhill tonight as Matthew moves right along the Florida Coast.  It is possible that it could move inland on Friday Morning, if not sooner, near Cape Canaveral, FL.  The storm could also wobble and make multiple landfalls on Friday.  This is going to cause significant damage and surge flooding to the Florida Coast. 

It is worth noting, that there has never been a hurricane like this in Florida, so you can't really compare it to any past storm!  The state is fearing the worst, but hoping for the best.  The last time a storm was this strong was back in 2007 with Hurricane Dean as it made landfall in Central America with 145 mph winds. The last major hurricane to hit Florida was Hurricane Wilma back in October of 2005 as a Cat. 3 with 120 mph winds, so Matthew will be much stronger at landfall. This would also end the drought of how long it has been since the last major hurricane hit the U.S. (Wilma 2005).

Matthew will then track back offshore near Jacksonville, FL and then move just off the GA, SC, and NC Coasts as a Cat. 2.  Hurricane conditions are expected there along with a large storm surge and plenty of coastal flooding. 

The latest forecast models continue to show Matthew curving back out to sea and then to the SE.  This is thanks to a weaker trough of low pressure.  This trough is not going to pull Matthew northward, and an area of high pressure will build in keeping Matthew off the SE U.S. Coast.  It is possible that Matthew will make a loop and head back out to sea.  

It is also possible for Matthew to turn back to the west, cross over South Florida as a tropical storm, and then into the Southern Gulf of Mexico.  It would then move toward the Yucatan Peninsula, and not be a threat to Louisiana.  It is also possible that this may no longer be much of a tropical system either, just a weak low.  Needless to say, we will keep an eye on it.  

Here is my latest video update on Matthew:

I will continue to have the latest with Matthew here and on my Facebook and Twitter feeds.  -Dave


Popular posts from this blog

The Unseasonably Cool Weather Continues

Short Term Forecast:  It is a very cold morning across the Capital City with clear skies and temperatures in the 30s.  A light freeze is expected!  I hope that you brought in your plants last night.  Take that jacket with you this morning.

An area of high pressure remains over the Southeast U.S. today.  This will keep us sunny and with the northwest winds over us, we will stay cool.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s.

Another freeze is expected tonight for the Baton Rouge area.  We will be clear with calm winds and very good radiational cooling.  Low temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.  The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor from 2 AM to 8 AM Wednesday Morning.  The freeze could last 2 to 6+ hours and that would be long enough to kill any vegetation.  Make sure you bring in your plants or at least cover them tonight!  Bundle up!

Week Ahead:  The area of high pressure will stay put through Wednesday. …

Major Snowstorm Headed To Northeast US Tomorrow

For all of my friends and family that live in the Northeast is my latest analysis of the winter storm heading your way on Friday into Saturday:

The same area of low pressure that brought the heavy rain and thunderstorms to Louisiana last night and this morning will be moving up the East Coast on Friday.  It will get much stronger and become a  Nor' Easter that will impact all the major cities from Philly to NYC to Boston as well as inland areas.

Delmarva to NJ Coastal Areas:  Winter Storm Warning in effect from Friday AM until Saturday AM!  It looks like it will start out as a brief period of snow along the coast in the morning then change into a windy rain during the day.  Then go to a heavy snow late Friday into Saturday Morning.  Snow accumulations of 4-8" are possible.  Some minor ice accumulations are possible too. Winds will be sustained around 30+ mph and coastal erosion will be possible too.

NE PA: Winter Storm Warning from 10 am Friday until 7 am Saturday! …

Deadliest and Strongest Tornadoes In Louisiana History

If you are wondering what is the deadliest tornado ever to hit in the Baton Rouge was back on April 24, 1908 in Amite, LA to Purvis, MS.  (Grazulis, Thomas P. (1993). Significant Tornadoes 1680-1991: A Chronology and Analysis of Events. Environmental Films)  143 people lost their lives.  This was part of the 1908 Dixie Tornado Outbreak.  The storm started around 11:45 AM near Weiss, LA in Livingston Parish and tracked toward St. Helena Parish.  2 people were killed in Denham Springs and 2 in Montpelier.   Then it tracked toward Amite, LA where a path of damage was around 2 miles wide.  29 people were killed there.  It then traveled on the ground to Purvis, MS where the greatest damage was and most of the lives were lost.  The damage path was around 155 miles long.  

The F-Scale and  EF-Scale didn't exist then, so it was not given a rating at the time.  However, using recent technology and assessments, the storm would have been given an F-4 or EF-4 rating.  
This tornado wa…