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Showing posts from August, 2015

My latest thoughts on Tropical Storm Erika

10 AM ‪#‎Erika‬ Update:
Winds: 45 mph
Moving: W @ 16 mph
Pressure: 1006 mb
Storm remains unorganized & weak
Erika is not well organized at this time as it is in an unfavorable environment for development thanks to dry and and moderate to strong wind shear. Some storms did develop overnight, but they are still to the south and east of the center of circulation. At this time, the center is exposed and the system remains weak. Hurricane Hunters do not indicate any strengthening from their recent flight. The center has apparently reformed farther to the south of previously thought, so the forecast track from NHC had to be adjusted.  For the next few days, Erika is forecast to move WNW to the south of a mid-level subtropical ridge. By the weekend as the tropical cyclone nears the western edge of the ridge, it is expected to turn to the NW and NNW. However, there is uncertainty as to how quickly and how sharp this turn will will be. The future forecast track of Erika also depends on its in…