Tuesday, November 24, 2015

A Warming Trend Starts Today and Continues Through Thanksgiving

High pressure is moving to the east of Louisiana today, and that will shift the winds from the northeast to the east. This will start to warm us up and keep it mild for the rest of the week. Moisture is also moving back over us, and that has brought back some clouds. We will have a mix of sun and clouds today with highs in the mid 60s. 

This evening will be partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures in the 50s. If you are headed to the Canal Street Lighting Ceremony tonight, the weather will be pleasant and cool with temperatures in the 50s at 5:30 when the turn the lights on.

It will not be as chilly tonight with mostly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the upper 40s north and mid 50s south. You may still want a light jacket tomorrow morning.

The breezy winds will shift to the ESE for Wednesday, and we will have even warmer temperatures with highs in the lower 70s under mostly cloudy skies. We could see a spotty shower too, but most of you will remain dry.

The outlook for Thanksgiving has us mostly cloudy, breezy and mild with highs in the mid 70s. There will be a slight chance for a shower at 10%. Black Friday Morning looks good for all of you shoppers! It will be mostly cloudy with patchy fog and mild temperatures in the 60s on both sides of the lake.

The weekend will continue to be mostly cloudy and mild with a slight chance for rain on Saturday at 10%, but we will have a 30% chance for rain on Sunday ahead of our next cold front. Highs will be in the 70s and lows in the 60s each day. 

Be sure to watch WWL-TV and please like/follow my Facebook and Twitter feeds for your latest forecast info anytime. Hope you and your family have a Happy Thanksgiving! -Dave

Monday, November 23, 2015

Thanksgiving Week Weather Outlook...changes are coming!

We will have one more cool day before a warming trend starts across Southeast Louisiana. High pressure remains over us today and that will keep the cool northeasterly winds over us. It will be clear, but highs will only be in the upper 50s. It will stay cool and nice this evening with temperatures in the 40s, so you will will want a jacket. 

This will be the last chilly night of the week, but only a few spots may get to freezing. Some high clouds will move over us and the area of high pressure, which has the coolest air beneath it, moves to the east of Louisiana. Lows will be in the lower to mid 30s north of the lake and mid 40s south. You will want to cover or bring in your plants on the Northshore.  Also, you should have a warm place for your pets on both sides of the lake!  

The area of high pressure will continue moving east of us on Wednesday, and that will bring back east to southeast winds for the rest of the week. More clouds will develop as moisture moves in from the Pacific Ocean. Tuesday will be partly cloudy with highs in the 60s. Wednesday will also be partly cloudy, but it will be warmer with highs in the 70s. It will not be as cold at night with lows in the 40s north and 50s south.

Thanksgiving and Friday will be a mild and more humid with partly cloudy skies. A shower or two will also be possible, but most of you will stay dry. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will be in the 50s north and 60s south. 

Make sure to watch WWL-TV, follow me on Facebook and Twitter for the latest weather forecast anytime!  -Dave Nussbaum

Thursday, August 27, 2015

My latest thoughts on Tropical Storm Erika

10 AM ‪#‎Erika‬ Update:
Winds: 45 mph
Moving: W @ 16 mph
Pressure: 1006 mb
Storm remains unorganized & weak

Erika is not well organized at this time as it is in an unfavorable environment for development thanks to dry and and moderate to strong wind shear. Some storms did develop overnight, but they are still to the south and east of the center of circulation. At this time, the center is exposed and the system remains weak. Hurricane Hunters do not indicate any strengthening from their recent flight. The center has apparently reformed farther to the south of previously thought, so the forecast track from NHC had to be adjusted. 
For the next few days, Erika is forecast to move WNW to the south of a mid-level subtropical ridge. By the weekend as the tropical cyclone nears the western edge of the ridge, it is expected to turn to the NW and NNW. However, there is uncertainty as to how quickly and how sharp this turn will will be. The future forecast track of Erika also depends on its intensity. If Erika is a weaker system, then it is likely to move more to the west across the Caribbean. If it is a stronger storm, then it will track more to the east or north.
The forecast models are in agreement for the next 24-48 hours that Erika will remain weak and will track to the WNW across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The NHC is then forecasting for Erika to get stronger and turn more to the north off the East Coast of Florida. It is also worth noting that some of the models want to significantly strengthen Erika this weekend over the Bahamas and have hinted that it could become a Cat. 2+ hurricane off the East Coast of Florida by early next week. 
Due to the uncertainties, it is too early to say if Erika will make it into the Gulf of Mexico. However, most trends as of now say that it will not, but we can't rely on that. Please stay tuned to my updates for more info and watch WWL-TV for my updates too. -Dave

Monday, June 15, 2015

Tracking Invest 91 In The Western Gulf of Mexico

The Latest: Invest 91 is now in the West-Central Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Hunters continue to fly into this system, and found that it has a large elongated circulation, but is lacking a well-defined center. Thunderstorms are becoming better organized and will continue to get stronger throughout the day.  That means it is not a tropical cyclone yet, but it does still have the potential to become one before it reaches the Texas Coast.  They also found tropical storm force winds of 45 mph east of the elongated low. Upper-level winds are forecast to become gradually move favorable for development over the next 24 hours as it moves to the northwest at 13 mph. 

Forecast models continue to indicate that the system would stay on the NW track moving toward the Texas Coast.  It will stay away from Louisiana! Hurricane hunters are scheduled to fly into the area again this afternoon/evening. NHC is now saying there is a high chance for formation through 2-5 days, and a tropical depression or storm could form at any time. If development happens, the next name on the list is Bill. 

Higher southeasterly to easterly winds will keep tides running a little higher, and a coastal flood advisory is in effect through midday Tuesday.

Check out WWL-TV's Hurricane page.  Stay tuned to WWL-TV and my social media accounts on Facebook & Twitter for additional updates!   -Dave Nussbaum

Friday, April 10, 2015

Scattered storms today across Southeast Louisiana, some strong to severe

A Stormy Afternoon:  A cold front will move into Southeast Louisiana this afternoon and it will set off scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Some of the storms could be strong to even severe.  SPC has put most of the area in a Slight Risk for severe weather.  The main threats would be damaging winds and large hail.  We will also see frequent lightning strikes and heavy rain with any storm.  However, it will not be a washout tonight, so bring you umbrella to any of the festivals tonight.  High temperatures will be in the mid 80s before the rain begins.  

Tonight Forecast:  The storms, some strong to severe, will continue into the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall into the 70s.  The bulk of the rain and storms will end overnight with only a spotty shower possible as the cold front stalls along the Louisiana Coast.  It will be mild with lows in the 60s.  

Wet Weekend:  The front will remain stalled along our coast on Saturday.  Depending on how far south it goes will depend on how much rain we will get.  Right now it looks like we will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered storms developing during the afternoon.  Any storm will have heavy rain.  Again, it will not be a washout, so you can attend any of the festivals across the area.  High temperatures will be around 80 in New Orleans, but will only be in the 70s for the Northshore. 

The cold front will retreat back to the north as a warm front on Sunday.  This will bring up the chance for rain starting early in the morning and for the rest of the day.  Some of the storms could be strong with gusty winds and heavy rain.  Once again, Sunday will not be a washout, so keep your umbrellas handy if you are out and about.  Highs will be around 80.  

Outlook For Next Week: It looks to be pretty soggy.  Each day we can expect scattered showers and thunderstorms with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s/70s.  Welcome to Spring!  

Keep it tuned to WWL-TV today and this weekend for the latest on our stormy forecast and how it will impact the local festivals.  Also, follow me on Twitter and Facebook for weather updates as well.