Tuesday, April 22, 2014

A cold front today, but then warm weather the rest of the week

A cold front is going to move across Southeast Louisiana on this Earth Day, but it will not bring us much rain.  Actually, the front will not live up to its name!  You can expect mostly cloudy skies with only a 20-30% chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm.  Most of you will not see any rain.  Highs will be mid to upper 70s with a few spots making it to 80 if you see more sunshine.

The front will be along the coast tonight and we will not cool down much behind it.  There will be partly cloudy skies overnight with lows in the lower 60s.

An area of high pressure will build over us on Wednesday and Thursday.  Each day will have mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower to mid 60s. 

The outlook for the busy weekend (Jazz Fest & the Zurich Classic) calls for partly cloudy skies on Friday, Saturday and Sunday with only a 10% chance for a pop-up shower each day.  It will become much more humid too.  Highs will be in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

Take the umbrella today in case you run into a shower.  Have a great Earth Day! -Dave

Sunday, April 6, 2014

Severe weather and heavy rain possible tonight

...Tornado Watch until 3:00 AM for ALL of Southeast Louisiana...
...Flash Flood Watch in effect until 1 PM Monday for all of Southeast Louisiana...

What happened to the heavy rain that I expected today??  All I have to say is it is still coming!  SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for ALL of Southeast Louisiana until 3:00 AM! 

Yesterday, the forecast models hinted at lower rain amounts from what they showed on Friday, but still the chance for some severe weather.  Today, Mother Nature threw me a curve ball and significantly slowed down the northern movement of the warm front from the LA Coast.  It has moved through NOLA & south of the front it is much warmer & more humid.  This front WILL still move northward tonight.  The atmosphere south of the front is VERY unstable & t'storms are expected to develop tonight.  Check out the temperature in New Orleans vs. Baton Rouge below:

 As a warm front moves north from the LA Coast, an area of low pressure will move from the Western Gulf of Mexico toward Louisiana.  This will increase the amount thunderstorms over SE LA & there will be an increase of wind shear.  The wind shear, combined with the unstable atmosphere, a low-level jet stream, moderate mid-level jet & strong upper-level jet will allow for the potential for tornadoes to form. 

Due to all of that, SPC still has us in a Slight Risk for severe weather tonight into Monday Morning (see the image below).  A squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms is now forming west of Baton Rouge and it will eventually tap into the very unstable air along and south of I-10.  This should help to intensify the storms as the line moves to the east.  It is forecast to arrive in Baton Rouge around midnight and around New Orleans between 2-7 AM.  These storms could produce damaging winds, possibly a tornado and heavy rain.  

Some of the storms that form ahead of the squall line could also be strong to severe.  These are the ones we have to watch out to see if they will produce tornadoes.  Otherwise, they also could have damaging winds, hail & heavy rain.

Extended Outlook:  All of the rain is expected to clear SE LA Monday Afternoon with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  A weak cold front will move through on Tuesday with a slight chance for a few showers.   Then the rest of the week will be pretty nice with plenty of sunshine & a slow warm-up.

Be sure to watch WWL-TV for weather updates and my Facebook & Twitter feeds.  -Dave

Friday, April 4, 2014

Heavy rain and storms likely this weekend

Friday Night:  The cold front is moving across SE LA tonight and that will push the rain and storms to the LA Coast.  Overnight, we will keep partly to mostly cloudy skies around with a few spotty showers (20% Chance).  Lows will be near 56 north of the lake and 60 south.

Saturday Outlook:  The cold front will stay stalled along the LA Coast on Saturday.  As it sits there, weak disturbances will move along it from west to east.  This will set off scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day (50% Chance).  However, the bulk of the rain will be along and south of the I-10 corridor.  North of I-10 it will be just some isolated to scattered showers/storms.  Any storm could produce heavy rain.  We will be cooler with highs struggling to reach 70.

The tail-end of the cold front will start to retreat back to the north as a warm front on Saturday Night.  At the same time an area of low pressure is expected to develop along the Texas Coast.  This low will push the warm front into LA as it moves toward us.  All of this will set off scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.  Heavy rain is possible.  Lows will be in the mid 50s.

Soggy Sunday:  As the low moves over LA on Sunday, it will draw in plenty of Gulf Moisture.  This will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms all day long (90% Chance).  Some of these storms could be strong to possibly severe.  SPC has put South Louisiana in a Slight Risk.  The storms could have damaging winds, hail and very heavy rain.

We could pick up 1-3"+ of rain on Sunday!  It is likely that the NWS will issue a Flash Flood Watch for SE LA since most of the rain will just run-off thanks to the soggy ground.  It will become warmer in the wake of the warm front with highs back in the mid 70s.

More rain is expected on Sunday Night (90% Chance) as another cold front moves through the area.  Some of the storms along this front could be strong to severe going into early Monday Morning.  Lows will be int he mid 60s.

Next Week Outlook:  Once the front moves through on Monday Morning, the skies will become partly cloudy and we will briefly dry out.  Another weak system moves through on Tuesday, and it will give us mostly cloudy skies with a 20% chance for a shower.

Then we really dry out starting on Wednesday.  We will have some chilly mornings north of the lake in the 40s and 50s south.  Highs will be back in the 70s.

Be sure to keep an eye on the weather this weekend.  Please follow WWL-TV and my Facebook & Twitter feeds for weather updates.  Have a good weekend!!  -Dave 

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Rain returns tonight with some strong to severe storms possible on Friday

I am expecting two rounds of rain/storms to move across Southeast Louisiana over the next two days.  Here is how it will play out:

Round 1 Tonight:  A disturbance will move across Louisiana tonight and this will help to set off scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Some of the storms could be strong with heavy rain and gusty winds.  The threat for severe weather is low, so I can't rule out one or two becoming severe.  Otherwise, it will be a mostly cloudy, mild and muggy night with lows in the mid 60s.

Round 2 Friday:  As the first disturbances moves east of Louisiana on Friday, a cold front and low will move toward the state from the west.  Ahead of the front it will be unseasonably warm and humid.  This will become fuel for the storms as the atmosphere becomes unstable. 

Friday Morning will start off with some showers and a few t'storms as the disturbance moves to the east.  The chance for rain will be only around 30% on Friday Afternoon with mostly cloudy skies.  High temperatures will climb into the lower 80s. 

Things will start to go downhill again on Friday Night.  Starting around 7 PM we will start to see more showers and storms popping up ahead of the cold front.  The atmosphere will be very unstable and that will allow us to get even more storms into the overnight hours.  It is likely a squall line of thunderstorms will move toward New Orleans. 

These storms could become severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.  However, I can't rule out a tornado or two.  SPC has put all of Louisiana and Mississippi in a Slight Risk for severe weather from 7 PM Friday Until 7 AM Saturday.  It is possible that SPC will issue a weather watch for SE LA at some point for Friday Night.  Needless to say, we will be watching the storms closely in the Pinpoint Forecast Center. Lows on Friday Night will be in the mid 60s. 

Weekend Outlook:  The cold front/low will push through New Orleans on Saturday Morning, and once is moves through, the severe weather threat will end.  We will see have a few clouds and showers during the morning hours as they wrap around the low.  All of the rain is forecast to end by midday Saturday, and then we will become partly cloudy.  There will not be cold air behind this front, so the high temperature will be in the upper 70s.  It does turn cooler on Saturday Night with lows in the upper 40s north of the lake and upper 50s south. 

Sunday will be a beautiful day with mostly sunny skies and lower humidity.  Highs will be a little cooler as they only climb into the lower 70s.  Sunday Night will be clear and a tad cooler with lows in the mid 40s north and mid 50s south. 

Be sure to keep it tuned to WWL-TV the next few days, and also follow me on Facebook and Twitter for any weather updates.  -Dave

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Warmer and more active weather headed to Southeast Louisiana

Chilly Afternoon/Evening:  So much for Spring!?!  Thanks to all the clouds today we did not warm up much at all as high temperatures only got into the upper 50s - that is just about what our low temperatures should be this time of year!  The clouds will stick around this evening and the temperatures will likely hold steady in the mid to upper 50s.  It will still be a little breezy with southeast winds of 10-20 mph. 

Overnight, the winds will die down and the temperatures will actually start to rise as warmer air begins to move our way.  It will remain cloudy with some patchy fog, and there is a slight chance (10%) for a shower.  Low temperatures will likely occur around midnight in the mid 50s. 

A Rainy Thursday:  Your commute on Thursday Morning will be fine with cloudy skies and some fog.  As we move into the afternoon hours, a disturbance will move over Louisiana from the west.  This will tap into the warm and more humid air over us, and that will set off isolated showers and few t'storms.  High temperatures will be much warmer as they climb into the lower 70s. 

The disturbance will move over SE LA on Thursday Night and that will set off scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.  Some of the storms could be strong with heavy rain and gusty winds.  Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s.

Friday & The Weekend:  We will begin Friday with those showers and thunderstorms.  Then the rain will taper off by mid-day, and we will be left with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  It will be even warmer and more humid with high temperatures in the lower 80s.

Another disturbance will move over us on Friday Night along with a cold front.  It will once again set off scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.  Some heavy rain will be possible.  Lows will be in the mid 60s north and south of the lake. 

Saturday will start out with some rain/storms as the disturbance/cold front moves to the east of Louisiana.  We will then become partly cloudy by Saturday Afternoon, and it will turn out to be a very nice day.  An area of high pressure will build across the Deep South.  Highs will be in the upper 70s.  Saturday Night will have a few clouds with some patchy fog and lows will be cooler as they fall to near 50 north and the upper 50s south. 

Expect plenty of sunshine on Sunday, but it will be cooler.  High temperatures will be in the lower 70s, and lows in the upper 40s north and mid 50s south of the lake. 

Take a light jacket with you today and your umbrella tomorrow.  Have a good night! -Dave