Thursday, August 27, 2015

My latest thoughts on Tropical Storm Erika

10 AM ‪#‎Erika‬ Update:
Winds: 45 mph
Moving: W @ 16 mph
Pressure: 1006 mb
Storm remains unorganized & weak

Erika is not well organized at this time as it is in an unfavorable environment for development thanks to dry and and moderate to strong wind shear. Some storms did develop overnight, but they are still to the south and east of the center of circulation. At this time, the center is exposed and the system remains weak. Hurricane Hunters do not indicate any strengthening from their recent flight. The center has apparently reformed farther to the south of previously thought, so the forecast track from NHC had to be adjusted. 
For the next few days, Erika is forecast to move WNW to the south of a mid-level subtropical ridge. By the weekend as the tropical cyclone nears the western edge of the ridge, it is expected to turn to the NW and NNW. However, there is uncertainty as to how quickly and how sharp this turn will will be. The future forecast track of Erika also depends on its intensity. If Erika is a weaker system, then it is likely to move more to the west across the Caribbean. If it is a stronger storm, then it will track more to the east or north.
The forecast models are in agreement for the next 24-48 hours that Erika will remain weak and will track to the WNW across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The NHC is then forecasting for Erika to get stronger and turn more to the north off the East Coast of Florida. It is also worth noting that some of the models want to significantly strengthen Erika this weekend over the Bahamas and have hinted that it could become a Cat. 2+ hurricane off the East Coast of Florida by early next week. 
Due to the uncertainties, it is too early to say if Erika will make it into the Gulf of Mexico. However, most trends as of now say that it will not, but we can't rely on that. Please stay tuned to my updates for more info and watch WWL-TV for my updates too. -Dave

Monday, June 15, 2015

Tracking Invest 91 In The Western Gulf of Mexico

The Latest: Invest 91 is now in the West-Central Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Hunters continue to fly into this system, and found that it has a large elongated circulation, but is lacking a well-defined center. Thunderstorms are becoming better organized and will continue to get stronger throughout the day.  That means it is not a tropical cyclone yet, but it does still have the potential to become one before it reaches the Texas Coast.  They also found tropical storm force winds of 45 mph east of the elongated low. Upper-level winds are forecast to become gradually move favorable for development over the next 24 hours as it moves to the northwest at 13 mph. 

Forecast models continue to indicate that the system would stay on the NW track moving toward the Texas Coast.  It will stay away from Louisiana! Hurricane hunters are scheduled to fly into the area again this afternoon/evening. NHC is now saying there is a high chance for formation through 2-5 days, and a tropical depression or storm could form at any time. If development happens, the next name on the list is Bill. 

Higher southeasterly to easterly winds will keep tides running a little higher, and a coastal flood advisory is in effect through midday Tuesday.

Check out WWL-TV's Hurricane page.  Stay tuned to WWL-TV and my social media accounts on Facebook & Twitter for additional updates!   -Dave Nussbaum

Friday, April 10, 2015

Scattered storms today across Southeast Louisiana, some strong to severe

A Stormy Afternoon:  A cold front will move into Southeast Louisiana this afternoon and it will set off scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Some of the storms could be strong to even severe.  SPC has put most of the area in a Slight Risk for severe weather.  The main threats would be damaging winds and large hail.  We will also see frequent lightning strikes and heavy rain with any storm.  However, it will not be a washout tonight, so bring you umbrella to any of the festivals tonight.  High temperatures will be in the mid 80s before the rain begins.  

Tonight Forecast:  The storms, some strong to severe, will continue into the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall into the 70s.  The bulk of the rain and storms will end overnight with only a spotty shower possible as the cold front stalls along the Louisiana Coast.  It will be mild with lows in the 60s.  

Wet Weekend:  The front will remain stalled along our coast on Saturday.  Depending on how far south it goes will depend on how much rain we will get.  Right now it looks like we will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered storms developing during the afternoon.  Any storm will have heavy rain.  Again, it will not be a washout, so you can attend any of the festivals across the area.  High temperatures will be around 80 in New Orleans, but will only be in the 70s for the Northshore. 

The cold front will retreat back to the north as a warm front on Sunday.  This will bring up the chance for rain starting early in the morning and for the rest of the day.  Some of the storms could be strong with gusty winds and heavy rain.  Once again, Sunday will not be a washout, so keep your umbrellas handy if you are out and about.  Highs will be around 80.  

Outlook For Next Week: It looks to be pretty soggy.  Each day we can expect scattered showers and thunderstorms with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s/70s.  Welcome to Spring!  

Keep it tuned to WWL-TV today and this weekend for the latest on our stormy forecast and how it will impact the local festivals.  Also, follow me on Twitter and Facebook for weather updates as well.  

Thursday, April 9, 2015

Drs. Klotzbach and Gray Issue Their Predictions for the 2015 Hurricane Season

Each year in April, a group of forecasters from Colorado State University lead by Dr. Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray.  They have been doing this for decades and this gives us an idea of how the hurricane season could play out.  Yes, we take this as a grain of salt because it could easily change.  However, it still helps to have a guide.

They look at a number of things from global atmospheric conditions, oceanic conditions, climate history and weather patterns to put together a forecast.  After all of their analysis, they have concluded that we will have a below average 2015 Hurricane Season.

The main factors for fewer storms this season is the likelihood for a moderate El Nino to form and cool Atlantic Ocean water temperatures.  When you have an El Nino you typically have more wind shear across the Globe and that makes it hard for storms to develop and persist.  Yes, it is still possible for some to form and become hurricanes, but you would not have as many if an El Nino didn't exist.  The cool water temperatures are also a problem when a storm tries to form.  You need minimum water temperatures to be around 80° to maintain a storm.  Anything less than that makes it hard for the storm to thrive.

Again, take this as a grain of salt,but it would be nice not to have many storms.  Remember, it only takes one to make an active season.  1992 was not an active season, but we had Hurricane Andrew.  1957 was not an active season, but we had Hurricane Audrey - the earliest major hurricane ever to make landfall in the U.S.

We are still less than 2 months away from the start of hurricane season (June 1st).  Now is the time to get prepared.  Check your hurricane kits and refresh them with batteries, water, supplies, etc. now before you need the supplies and it is too late!

Make sure you keep it tuned to WWL-TV this hurricane season for daily updates and more!

Warm today with scattered storms returning Friday through the weekend

Above Average Temps. Today: We will have another day with above average and even near record high temperatures across Southeast Louisiana. It will be mostly cloudy with a slight chance for a few showers and storms too. Highs will be in the mid 80s. The record high at Armstrong International Airport is 86 set back in 1999, Audubon is 87 set back in 1946 and Slidell is 86 set back in 1965.
Tonight: The clouds will stick around this evening along with a few showers or thunderstorms. The temperatures will fall into the 70s. Tonight will continue to be mostly cloudy and we could see some patchy fog with a spotty shower or two. Lows will be in the 70s. 
Friday Cold Front: A cold front will move toward New Orleans on Friday and it will set off scattered showers and thunderstorms starting in the late morning and lasting for much of the day. Some of the storms could be strong to severe. SPC has placed much of SELA in a Slight Risk for severe storms. The main threats would be damaging winds and large hail. We will still be warm and humid ahead of the cold front with highs in the 80s. The showers/storms will dissipate some on Friday Night with lows in the 60s.
Wet Weekend:  The cold front is expected to stall along the Louisiana Coast on Saturday. Unfortunately, we will still have some scattered showers and storms, but it will not be a washout. Keep an eye on the radar if you are headed to any festivals. Highs will be around 80. 
The threat for rain and storms continues into Sunday as the tail-end of the cold front retreats back to the north as a warm front. This will give us more scattered showers during the day, but it will still not be a washout. Highs remain in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
Keep it tuned to WWL-TV for the latest forecast for all of the festivals and activities going on this weekend!  Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter and Facebook to get all of my weather updates anytime!