Monday, June 15, 2015

Tracking Invest 91 In The Western Gulf of Mexico

The Latest: Invest 91 is now in the West-Central Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Hunters continue to fly into this system, and found that it has a large elongated circulation, but is lacking a well-defined center. Thunderstorms are becoming better organized and will continue to get stronger throughout the day.  That means it is not a tropical cyclone yet, but it does still have the potential to become one before it reaches the Texas Coast.  They also found tropical storm force winds of 45 mph east of the elongated low. Upper-level winds are forecast to become gradually move favorable for development over the next 24 hours as it moves to the northwest at 13 mph. 

Forecast models continue to indicate that the system would stay on the NW track moving toward the Texas Coast.  It will stay away from Louisiana! Hurricane hunters are scheduled to fly into the area again this afternoon/evening. NHC is now saying there is a high chance for formation through 2-5 days, and a tropical depression or storm could form at any time. If development happens, the next name on the list is Bill. 

Higher southeasterly to easterly winds will keep tides running a little higher, and a coastal flood advisory is in effect through midday Tuesday.

Check out WWL-TV's Hurricane page.  Stay tuned to WWL-TV and my social media accounts on Facebook & Twitter for additional updates!   -Dave Nussbaum

Friday, April 10, 2015

Scattered storms today across Southeast Louisiana, some strong to severe

A Stormy Afternoon:  A cold front will move into Southeast Louisiana this afternoon and it will set off scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Some of the storms could be strong to even severe.  SPC has put most of the area in a Slight Risk for severe weather.  The main threats would be damaging winds and large hail.  We will also see frequent lightning strikes and heavy rain with any storm.  However, it will not be a washout tonight, so bring you umbrella to any of the festivals tonight.  High temperatures will be in the mid 80s before the rain begins.  

Tonight Forecast:  The storms, some strong to severe, will continue into the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall into the 70s.  The bulk of the rain and storms will end overnight with only a spotty shower possible as the cold front stalls along the Louisiana Coast.  It will be mild with lows in the 60s.  

Wet Weekend:  The front will remain stalled along our coast on Saturday.  Depending on how far south it goes will depend on how much rain we will get.  Right now it looks like we will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered storms developing during the afternoon.  Any storm will have heavy rain.  Again, it will not be a washout, so you can attend any of the festivals across the area.  High temperatures will be around 80 in New Orleans, but will only be in the 70s for the Northshore. 

The cold front will retreat back to the north as a warm front on Sunday.  This will bring up the chance for rain starting early in the morning and for the rest of the day.  Some of the storms could be strong with gusty winds and heavy rain.  Once again, Sunday will not be a washout, so keep your umbrellas handy if you are out and about.  Highs will be around 80.  

Outlook For Next Week: It looks to be pretty soggy.  Each day we can expect scattered showers and thunderstorms with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s/70s.  Welcome to Spring!  

Keep it tuned to WWL-TV today and this weekend for the latest on our stormy forecast and how it will impact the local festivals.  Also, follow me on Twitter and Facebook for weather updates as well.  

Thursday, April 9, 2015

Drs. Klotzbach and Gray Issue Their Predictions for the 2015 Hurricane Season

Each year in April, a group of forecasters from Colorado State University lead by Dr. Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray.  They have been doing this for decades and this gives us an idea of how the hurricane season could play out.  Yes, we take this as a grain of salt because it could easily change.  However, it still helps to have a guide.

They look at a number of things from global atmospheric conditions, oceanic conditions, climate history and weather patterns to put together a forecast.  After all of their analysis, they have concluded that we will have a below average 2015 Hurricane Season.

The main factors for fewer storms this season is the likelihood for a moderate El Nino to form and cool Atlantic Ocean water temperatures.  When you have an El Nino you typically have more wind shear across the Globe and that makes it hard for storms to develop and persist.  Yes, it is still possible for some to form and become hurricanes, but you would not have as many if an El Nino didn't exist.  The cool water temperatures are also a problem when a storm tries to form.  You need minimum water temperatures to be around 80° to maintain a storm.  Anything less than that makes it hard for the storm to thrive.

Again, take this as a grain of salt,but it would be nice not to have many storms.  Remember, it only takes one to make an active season.  1992 was not an active season, but we had Hurricane Andrew.  1957 was not an active season, but we had Hurricane Audrey - the earliest major hurricane ever to make landfall in the U.S.

We are still less than 2 months away from the start of hurricane season (June 1st).  Now is the time to get prepared.  Check your hurricane kits and refresh them with batteries, water, supplies, etc. now before you need the supplies and it is too late!

Make sure you keep it tuned to WWL-TV this hurricane season for daily updates and more!

Warm today with scattered storms returning Friday through the weekend

Above Average Temps. Today: We will have another day with above average and even near record high temperatures across Southeast Louisiana. It will be mostly cloudy with a slight chance for a few showers and storms too. Highs will be in the mid 80s. The record high at Armstrong International Airport is 86 set back in 1999, Audubon is 87 set back in 1946 and Slidell is 86 set back in 1965.
Tonight: The clouds will stick around this evening along with a few showers or thunderstorms. The temperatures will fall into the 70s. Tonight will continue to be mostly cloudy and we could see some patchy fog with a spotty shower or two. Lows will be in the 70s. 
Friday Cold Front: A cold front will move toward New Orleans on Friday and it will set off scattered showers and thunderstorms starting in the late morning and lasting for much of the day. Some of the storms could be strong to severe. SPC has placed much of SELA in a Slight Risk for severe storms. The main threats would be damaging winds and large hail. We will still be warm and humid ahead of the cold front with highs in the 80s. The showers/storms will dissipate some on Friday Night with lows in the 60s.
Wet Weekend:  The cold front is expected to stall along the Louisiana Coast on Saturday. Unfortunately, we will still have some scattered showers and storms, but it will not be a washout. Keep an eye on the radar if you are headed to any festivals. Highs will be around 80. 
The threat for rain and storms continues into Sunday as the tail-end of the cold front retreats back to the north as a warm front. This will give us more scattered showers during the day, but it will still not be a washout. Highs remain in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
Keep it tuned to WWL-TV for the latest forecast for all of the festivals and activities going on this weekend!  Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter and Facebook to get all of my weather updates anytime!  

Friday, March 6, 2015

Staying cold today and tonight, turning milder this weekend and plenty of rain arrives next week

Short Term Forecast:  We will continue to be cold and breezy this afternoon as an area of high pressure builds to the Deep South.  Some high clouds will stream over us during the day and they will filter the sun.  Highs will be around 50.  

It will be a chilly evening, so dress warmly if you are headed out tonight.  We will have mostly clear skies with temperatures in the 40s.  

Another light freeze is likely on the Northshore tonight with clear skies, but the Southshore should stay above freezing.  The winds will die down, so some patchy frost is possible on both sides of the lake.  Lows will be around 30 north and in the upper 30s south.  Be sure to protect the plants, pets and people tonight.  

Weekend Outlook:  The weekend will start out pretty nice on Saturday with partly cloudy skies.  It will be a little "warmer" with highs around 60.  It stays chilly Saturday Night with lows in the 30s north and 40s south.  More clouds will move over us on Sunday, and we could see a few showers popping up late in the day ahead of an upper-level disturbance.  Highs will be in the lower 60s.  

Daylight Saving Time:  Begins this weekend!  Be sure to "spring forward" your clock 1 hour before you go to bed on Saturday Night by 2 AM!  It is also a great idea to check the batteries in your smoke detector too!  

Next Week Outlook:  Get ready for some very soggy weather next week!  Forecast models are showing we could pick up around 4 INCHES of rain for the week!  Stay tuned to updates this weekend!  

Be sure to keep it tuned to WWL-TV for your latest forecast each day.  You can also get your local weather info by following me on Twitter and Facebook!