Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Old Man Winter Makes A Return To Southeast Louisiana Wednesday

Tonight Forecast:  I hope that you were able to get out and enjoy the warm weather today because it will be over a week until we will have temperatures in the 70s again!  Old Man Winter is making a return to New Orleans tonight and he will stick around for awhile. 

Cold Blast:  It will be mostly cloudy tonight ahead of the cold front.  A few showers (20% chance) will be possible as the front moves through late tonight/early on Wednesday Morning.  Lows will drop to the mid 50s north and south of the lake.

We will start Wednesday with plenty of clouds, a few showers and breezy conditions.  Wednesday Morning temperatures around 60 will likely be the high temperatures for the day.  Then the temperatures will fall through the 50s during the afternoon.  Winds will be out of the north at 10-20 mph, and this will put an extra chill in the air. 

A weak disturbance will move across the Northern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday Night into Thursday.  This will keep it cloudy and send a few showers over Southeast Louisiana.  Lows will be in the 40s north and south of the lake.

Possible Freeze:  The disturbance will continue to move to the east on Thursday, but it will keep the clouds and a few showers over the New Orleans area all day.  This will keep temperatures well below average as we will only climb to 50.  The skies will become clear on Thursday Night and the temperatures will fall once again.  We could have a light freeze on the Northshore with lows around 30, so get ready to cover or bring in your plants.  However, the Southshore will stay above freezing with lows in the upper 30s.

More chilly weather is expected on Friday, but the sun returns as an area of high pressure sits over Louisiana.  Highs will be in the lower 50s.  Friday Night will be cold again with a light freeze possible north of the lake as the lows dip into the lower 30s.  South of the lake will stay above freezing with lows in the upper 30s.

Weekend Outlook:  Looking at the weekend, we will have some cool and dry weather on Saturday with highs in the lower 60s.  Another cold front will move through on Sunday, and this time it will bring us some much needed rain.  We will have scattered showers with highs in the lower 60s. 

Make sure you dress warmly the next few days and use caution when using portable heaters.  Stay warm New Orleans and follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates!  -Dave

Sunday, October 12, 2014

A strong cold front headed our way on Monday, and the tropics are getting active in the Atlantic

Tonight Forecast:  Look for a muggy night with partly cloudy skies, patchy dense fog and a 10% chance for a coastal shower.  Lows will be in the upper 60s north and lower 70s south.  

Strong Cold Front:  The weather will REALLY start to change on Monday as a strong cold front comes out of the Great Plains and into the Deep South.  Clouds will be on the increase throughout the morning and we will start to see scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.  A squall line of storms is forecast to develop over Texas and move into Louisiana throughout the day.  Scattered storms are expected to develop ahead of the line.  Some of these storms could be strong to possibly severe with gusty winds and heavy rain.  SPC has us in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather.  However, the greatest area for severe weather will be in Southern Mississippi.  Highs will still be very warm as they climb into the upper 80s.  

The squall line will move out ahead of the cold front and into Southeast Louisiana on Monday Night/Early Tuesday Morning.  Some of the storms associated with the line could be strong to severe with gusty winds and heavy rain.  It will be mild and breezy with lows in the 60s.  

Rest of the Week:  We will start to clear out with plenty of sunshine on Tuesday Afternoon as the cold front moves to the east of Louisiana.  It will be breezy and MUCH COOLER with highs only in the upper 70s.  Tuesday Night will also be MUCH COOLER under clear skies.  Lows north of the lake will be around 50 and south of the lake in the upper 50s.  

Gorgeous weather is on tap for the rest of the week with low humidity.  Wednesday and Thursday will have plenty of sunshine with highs around 80.  Lows will be in the 50s north and 60s south of the lake. 

The humidity starts to go back up on Friday and into next weekend.  Each day will be partly cloudy with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s north and 60s south. 

Tropical Update:  Hurricane Fay is moving away from Bermuda as it tracks out to sea in the Atlantic.  Winds are around 75 mph and the pressure is 986 mb.  It is moving to the NE at 24 mph & it will continue to move into the Central Atlantic.  It is expected to become a post-tropical system on Monday.  

Tropical Storm Gonzalo just formed about 200 miles east of Guadeloupe.  Winds are 40 mph, but Gonzalo is forecast to become a hurricane during the next 48 hours as it approaches Puerto Rico.  It is moving to the W at 10 mph, but a turn to the WNW is expected on Tuesday Night.  On this track, Gonzalo is forecast to move through the Leeward Island and over Puerto Rico by 8 AM Tuesday.  Then it is forecast to turn more to the north and stay away from the US.  This will not impact Louisiana.

Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet.

Have a good rest of the weekend and get ready for some MUCH COOLER air to arrive on Tuesday!  -Dave

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Summer-like weather this week across Southeast Louisiana

Short Term Forecast:  The Summer-like conditions continue across Southeast Louisiana today and the next few days thanks to the area of high pressure sitting over us.  Warm and humid air will be pumped in from the Gulf and that will lead to partly cloudy skies along with a small chance for rain today.  Highs will be in the upper 80s.  

A muggy night is on tap with patchy dense fog again.  Watch for visibilities to be less than 1/4 mile at times on Thursday Morning.  Lows will be in the upper 60s north and lower 70s south.  

Rest of the Week:  We will have a slightly better chance for rain on Thursday and Friday as more Gulf Moisture streams over us.  We will have a mix of sun and clouds with a 20% chance for showers/storms.  Highs will stay in the upper 80s and lows will be in the 60s north and 70s south.  

Weekend Outlook:  The area of high pressure will break down this weekend, but we will stay very warm and humid with partly cloudy skies.  There will still be a slight chance (20%) of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.  High temperatures stay in the 80s and lows will be around 70.  

Tropical Outlook:  I am watching an area of disorganized showers and storms located several hundred miles NE of the Leeward Islands.  It is associated with a surface trough of low pressure.  Conditions appear to be somewhat favorable for slow development as we head into the weekend as the system moves to the NW.  NHC is giving this system a low chance for development through the next 5 days.  This will not impact Louisiana or the Gulf of Mexico.  

Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet. 

**Be sure to watch me on WWL-TV at Noon and 5 PM for weather updates each day during the week.  You can also follow my updates on my Facebook and Twitter pages.  Have a great day! -Dave

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

What is going on with Invest 96L in the Atlantic?

Many of you have been asking about this tropical wave in the Atlantic.  You've also seen some images of the forecast models on Facebook and Twitter showing it heading into the Gulf of Mexico and possibly toward Louisiana.  Let me tell you that you should NOT always believe what you see.

For example, one of the forecast models, the GFS, showed this system headed toward Texas on Tuesday early morning, Louisiana on Tuesday Afternoon, Texas on Tuesday Evening, AL/FL coast this morning and SE Florida as of this writing.  You can see how quickly this has changed, and it will constantly do this until an actual system has formed.  Therefore, take these forecast model plots or spaghetti plots with a grain of salt for now.  If and when a system has formed, I will have a better idea of where it could go based off of the data

Now with all of that in mind, I am watching a tropical wave out in the Atlantic Ocean that has been named Invest 96L.  It is trying to become better organized, but it is fighting some wind shear and dry air.  There is a very broad, or elongated circulation associated with it along with thunderstorms.  However, the NHC is now giving it a medium chance for some development in the next 1-2 days, and a high chance for development in the next 5 days.  It remains west of the Caribbean Sea,  but is moving west at 12 mph with estimated 30 mph winds.  Needless to say, it is still very far away from Louisiana.

Since Invest 96 is not an organized system so computer models don't have a real center to grab onto.  Therefore, do not rely heavily in the forecast of this disturbance just yet.  At the moment, the models do take whatever it becomes into the Northern Caribbean toward Hispaniola and track it right over Cuba.  If it were take , so we will be watching it very closely.  Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.  Once they get data from Invest 96L, it is then added to the forecast models, and that will give us a little more accurate depiction of how it may evolve.

So...right now it is worth watching because are in the middle of August and this is the time of year for storms to form where Invest 96L is located.  At the moment, the models forecast the system to get a little stronger and organized in a few days - possibly becoming a tropical depression, IF it can survive the dry air and wind shear.  Then the models show it tracking over Hispaniola and Cuba.  If that happens, the system would have to survive going over 10,000 ft. mountains, and that usually doesn't fair well for storms.  This will bring some heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola and Cuba.  I would venture to say that if it does develop, it would be poorly organized.  Basically, I will watch it, and we will see what happens over the next few days.  

Please keep it tuned to WWL-TV, our social media pages, and this webpage for additional updates as needed. 

Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet.

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Less humid weather today, but muggy weather returns this weekend

Tonight & Friday:  Mostly clear skies will greet us tonight inland with a 10% chance for some coastal showers.  It will very comfortable north of the lake with lows in the upper 60s, but it will be warmer south of the lake with lows in the mid 70s. 

The front will start to fall apart on Friday, and that will allow for southerly winds to return.  This will start to make it more humid with partly cloudy skies.  A spotty shower is possible along the Coastal Parishes.  Highs will be in the lower 90s. 

Weekend Outlook:  The weekend will become more humid and we will see the chance for rain going back up.  Saturday will have a 20% chance and Sunday will have a 40% chance as a weak disturbance moves across the Southeast U.S.  Highs will stay in the 90s and lows will be in the 70s. 

Tropical Outlook:  All areas of the tropics are quiet, and I'm not expecting anything to form over the next few days.  Be sure to check WWL-TV's Hurricane Central page for additional weather graphics and updates during the Hurricane Season.

Be sure to get out and enjoy the break in the humid weather.  Have a great day & night!  Follow me on Facebook and Twitter for weather updates all day.