Wednesday, August 20, 2014

What is going on with Invest 96L in the Atlantic?

Many of you have been asking about this tropical wave in the Atlantic.  You've also seen some images of the forecast models on Facebook and Twitter showing it heading into the Gulf of Mexico and possibly toward Louisiana.  Let me tell you that you should NOT always believe what you see.

For example, one of the forecast models, the GFS, showed this system headed toward Texas on Tuesday early morning, Louisiana on Tuesday Afternoon, Texas on Tuesday Evening, AL/FL coast this morning and SE Florida as of this writing.  You can see how quickly this has changed, and it will constantly do this until an actual system has formed.  Therefore, take these forecast model plots or spaghetti plots with a grain of salt for now.  If and when a system has formed, I will have a better idea of where it could go based off of the data

Now with all of that in mind, I am watching a tropical wave out in the Atlantic Ocean that has been named Invest 96L.  It is trying to become better organized, but it is fighting some wind shear and dry air.  There is a very broad, or elongated circulation associated with it along with thunderstorms.  However, the NHC is now giving it a medium chance for some development in the next 1-2 days, and a high chance for development in the next 5 days.  It remains west of the Caribbean Sea,  but is moving west at 12 mph with estimated 30 mph winds.  Needless to say, it is still very far away from Louisiana.

Since Invest 96 is not an organized system so computer models don't have a real center to grab onto.  Therefore, do not rely heavily in the forecast of this disturbance just yet.  At the moment, the models do take whatever it becomes into the Northern Caribbean toward Hispaniola and track it right over Cuba.  If it were take , so we will be watching it very closely.  Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.  Once they get data from Invest 96L, it is then added to the forecast models, and that will give us a little more accurate depiction of how it may evolve.

So...right now it is worth watching because are in the middle of August and this is the time of year for storms to form where Invest 96L is located.  At the moment, the models forecast the system to get a little stronger and organized in a few days - possibly becoming a tropical depression, IF it can survive the dry air and wind shear.  Then the models show it tracking over Hispaniola and Cuba.  If that happens, the system would have to survive going over 10,000 ft. mountains, and that usually doesn't fair well for storms.  This will bring some heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola and Cuba.  I would venture to say that if it does develop, it would be poorly organized.  Basically, I will watch it, and we will see what happens over the next few days.  

Please keep it tuned to WWL-TV, our social media pages, and this webpage for additional updates as needed. 

Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet.

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Less humid weather today, but muggy weather returns this weekend

Tonight & Friday:  Mostly clear skies will greet us tonight inland with a 10% chance for some coastal showers.  It will very comfortable north of the lake with lows in the upper 60s, but it will be warmer south of the lake with lows in the mid 70s. 

The front will start to fall apart on Friday, and that will allow for southerly winds to return.  This will start to make it more humid with partly cloudy skies.  A spotty shower is possible along the Coastal Parishes.  Highs will be in the lower 90s. 

Weekend Outlook:  The weekend will become more humid and we will see the chance for rain going back up.  Saturday will have a 20% chance and Sunday will have a 40% chance as a weak disturbance moves across the Southeast U.S.  Highs will stay in the 90s and lows will be in the 70s. 

Tropical Outlook:  All areas of the tropics are quiet, and I'm not expecting anything to form over the next few days.  Be sure to check WWL-TV's Hurricane Central page for additional weather graphics and updates during the Hurricane Season.

Be sure to get out and enjoy the break in the humid weather.  Have a great day & night!  Follow me on Facebook and Twitter for weather updates all day. 

Friday, August 8, 2014

Hot and humid with a few storms this weekend

Today & Tonight:  The oppressive heat and humidity continue today with partly cloudy skies and a few spotty showers/storms this afternoon.  Any storm will likely be a slow-mover and heavy rain will fall.  There could be some ponding of water on area roadways.  The storms will also produce a lot of lightning.  Remember if you hear thunder, go indoors!  Highs will be in the lower 90s, but it will feel like 100-105 at times. 

Very warm and muggy weather will greet us tonight with a few clouds and a 10% chance for a coastal shower.  Lows will fall to the mid to upper 70s. 

Weekend Forecast:  The weekend will continue to be hot and humid with a few showers (20%) on Saturday.  However, there will be a better chance (40%) for rain and storms on Sunday.  Again, any storm will produce heavy rain, frequent lightning strikes and be a slow-mover.  Highs will be in the lower 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s each day.  Try to keep cool!

Tropical Outlook:  The tropics are quiet this weekend and no tropical development in the Atlantic is expected.

Tropical Storm Iselle made landfall last night on the Big Island of Hawaii with winds around 70 mph.  Heavy rains and gusty winds will continue today as it moves off to the west and weakens. 

Hurricane Julio is forecast to get a little stronger over the next 24 hours before it starts to weaken again.  It is forecast to move just north of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday/Monday.  This will bring some large waves and some rain to the Island Chain. 

Have a good weekend and stay cool!  -Dave

Monday, July 28, 2014

Another rare July cold front headed to Southeast Louisiana tonight

"Cold" Front:  We will have a hot and very humid afternoon ahead of a rare July cold front today.  Expect partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front.  Some of the storms could be strong, and a few could be severe north of the lake.  High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s, but it will feel like 100-105+.

The cold front will move south into New Orleans overnight and then stall along the coast on Tuesday.  We will be mostly cloudy with isolated showers overnight.  Most of the rain will be along the coast.  It will still be muggy with lows in the mid 70s. 

Less Humid Air Returns:  Some drier and less humid air will start to filer into Southeast Louisiana on Tuesday behind the cold front.  While we will not turn "cold" we will see a break from the humidity.  Highs will be in the lower 90s. 

Even more less humid air arrives on Wednesday.  Morning temperatures will be in the upper 60s north of the lake and mid 70s south.  Wednesday Afternoon will be partly cloudy and hot with highs in the lower 90s. 

The muggy weather will return on Thursday and Friday as the front retreats back to the north.  At the same time, a disturbance will ride along it, and that will give us scattered storms each day.  Highs will be around 90 and lows in the 70s each day. 

Weekend Outlook:  We will have to dodge more scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday.  It will be hot and very humid with highs around 90 and lows in the mid 70s each day/night. 

Keep an eye on the radar today, and get ready for a break from the humidity!  -Dave

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

A rare July cold front and less humid air in Louisiana

Less Humid Weather:  The rare July cold front has moved through Southeast Louisiana, and it is now stalled along our coastline.  Some drier and less humid air has moved in over us behind the front all thanks to a deep trough of low pressure.  This has brought some unseasonably cool temperatures from the Great Lakes all the way to the Gulf Coast. We could even see some record lows across the Northshore and South Mississippi tonight!  Make sure you get out and enjoy this weather because it will not last long. 

Tonight & Thursday:  We will be a little cooler and more comfortable  tonight with lows in the mid 60s north of the lake and around 70 south of the lake.  How nice is that for the middle of July?!?

Some pleasant weather is on tap for Thursday as the dry air remains over us.  We will be partly cloudy with highs around 90. 

Unfortunately, the muggy weather returns on Thursday night as the cold front retreats back to the north as a warm front.  We will be partly cloudy with lows in the mid 70s.

A Stormy Weekend:  A disturbance will move in from the west on Friday and it will bring us scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.  Some of the storms could be strong on Friday.  Highs will only be in the upper 80s all weekend thanks to the clouds and rain.

Enjoy the nice break from the humidity tonight and tomorrow.  Have a nice night! -Dave