Skip to main content

Tropical Storm Hermine Thursday Update

Hermine is becoming better organized and and you can see this on the Visible satellite with storms
now wrapping around the center.  This will allow it to continue to get stronger even through it is going through some stronger wind shear and dry air to its west.  However, it is moving over very warm water in the upper 80s and that is helping to make it stronger.  Hurricane Hunters have been flying into Hermine this morning and have found flight level winds around 75-78 mph which translates into surface winds around 65 mph.  This makes it a strong tropical storm.

Hermine is expected to become a hurricane later today and stay a hurricane through landfall tonight.  Right now, it looks to just become a minimal hurricane with winds around 75 mph.  The intensity forecast models are showing it becoming a hurricane as well.  Hurricane Warnings are in place for part of the Florida Panhandle.  Right now, landfall is expected to be overnight between 1-3 AM near Apalachicola, FL with 75 mph winds. A storm surge of as much as 5-8 feet is possible in the Big Bend of Florida.  Rain totals could easily be around 5 to 10 inches, and even as much as 20 inches in spots across NW Florida and Southern GA. Those areas will need to watch out for flash
flooding!

Once the storm moves inland, it will merge with a cold front, and then move quickly NE through GA, SC and NC before it emerges into the Atlantic Ocean.  At that time, it will likely have lost some of its tropical characteristics and become a big coastal low.  However, there is chance it could regain them once it is back over the ocean and the wind shear is not as strong. Then the models are showing it stalling near Long Island, NY on Sunday through Tuesday.  This could cause the NE to deal with heavy rain, gusty winds and high surf.  We will have to see how Hermine evolves once moves back into the ocean to see how bad it could be for the NE U.S.

The only threats Louisiana will see from Hermine would be coastal flooding with tides 1-2+ feet above normal, and a few outer rainbands may move over St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parishes.  Those areas could get a quick downpour and some gusty winds.

Labor Day Weekend Beach Forecast:  if you are headed to any of the beaches in MS, AL or FL then
you can expect some pretty good weather.  Hermine will be well gone, and the only thing you will have to worry about is a stalled cold front along I-10.  This will bring the beaches a 30% chance for daily storms with highs in the 90s.  However, if you are going east of Destin to Panama City or places east of that, then there will likely be power outages, wind damage and flooding from Hermine's landfall as a hurricane.

Please continue to follow my updates here, on Twitter, Facebook and WWL-TV. Stay weather aware! -Dave

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The Unseasonably Cool Weather Continues

Short Term Forecast :  It is a very cold morning across the Capital City with clear skies and temperatures in the 30s.  A light freeze is expected!  I hope that you brought in your plants last night.  Take that jacket with you this morning. An area of high pressure remains over the Southeast U.S. today.  This will keep us sunny and with the northwest winds over us, we will stay cool.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Another freeze is expected tonight for the Baton Rouge area.  We will be clear with calm winds and very good radiational cooling.  Low temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.  The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor from 2 AM to 8 AM Wednesday Morning.  The freeze could last 2 to 6+ hours and that would be long enough to kill any vegetation.  Make sure you bring in your plants or at least cover them tonight!  Bundle up! Week Ahead :  The area of high pressure will stay put through
34 comments
Read more

Major Snowstorm Headed To Northeast US Tomorrow

For all of my friends and family that live in the Northeast US...here is my latest analysis of the winter storm heading your way on Friday into Saturday: The same area of low pressure that brought the heavy rain and thunderstorms to Louisiana last night and this morning will be moving up the East Coast on Friday.  It will get much stronger and become a  Nor' Easter that will impact all the major cities from Philly to NYC to Boston as well as inland areas. Delmarva to NJ Coastal Areas :  Winter Storm Warning in effect from Friday AM until Saturday AM!  It looks like it will start out as a brief period of snow along the coast in the morning then change into a windy rain during the day.  Then go to a heavy snow late Friday into Saturday Morning.  Snow accumulations of 4-8" are possible.  Some minor ice accumulations are possible too. Winds will be sustained around 30+ mph and coastal erosion will be possible too. NE PA : Winter Storm Warning from 10 am Friday until 7 am Sat
4 comments
Read more

Today Is The 5th Anniversary of Hurricane Gustav

Early in the morning on September 1, 2008, Labor Day, Hurricane Gustav made landfall near Cocodrie, LA.  It was a strong category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds.  At one point, right before Gustav made landfall over Western Cuba, winds were as high as 150 mph (Category 4).  It did weaken as it crossed Cuba, but did regain strength as it sat in the middle of the Gulf as it became a Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph.  This storm became the worst one ever to impact Baton Rouge, LA.  Sustained winds around 70 mph with a 91 mph wind gust was reported at Baton Rouge Metro Airport, 108 and 117 mph wind gusts were reported in Houma, LA.  That caused significant damage and, at one point, the entire city of Baton Rouge was without power. Hurricane Gustav moved slowly inland and the eastern-edge of the eye wall moved along the Mississippi River into Baton Rouge.  It continued northward through West Feliciana & Pointe Coupee Parishes.  The worst damage was seen along this line.  Area
1 comment
Read more