Tropical Storm Matthew is getting better organized in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. At the moment it is battling some strong wind shear, and that is keeping the storms from wrapping around the center of circulation. The wind shear is expected to relax tomorrow, and then it is forecast to be a hurricane in the Central Caribbean Sea. A turn to the north is expected as a front/upper level trough moves off the eastern U.S. pulls the storm northward.
Needless to say we will watch how Matthew evolves over the next few days. Right now, the models are trending on it moving over the Greater Antilles (Cuba and Hispaniola) as a Cat. 2 hurricane, and then moving north just off the U.S. East Coast. There is a chance it could be stronger once the wind shear dies down, and it moves over very warm waters. It is worth noting that climatologically the Central Caribbean is an area where storms do not intensify.
At this time, it is not expected to go into the Gulf, but we will still keep an eye on it due to the uncertainties in the models. However, the recent model trends want to put it in the Atlantic vs Gulf. Stay tuned for updates. -Dave