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Invest 97 is getting better organized as it nears the Caribbean

Invest 97 is getting better organized in the Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a high chance of developing in the next few days.  It is also quickly moving to the west toward the Caribbean Sea. It does not have a closed circulation, but that could change soon.  It has been battling some wind shear, but it is forecast to relax and that will give it a chance to become even more organized. Therefore, it could become a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next 24 hours.
Right now, it looks like it could move into the Eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek, but the forecast models are not agreeing on what route it will take.  It could take a southerly route and stay close to the coast of South America according to the European forecast model. This nearness to land, as well as strong upper winds in that part of the Caribbean Sea, may force the system to weaken a little. However, it could stay just a little farther north and strengthen into possibly a hurricane according to the GFS model.  Until we actually have a formed system, and the Hurricane Hunters fly into it, we will not have much data going into the models.  The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into it later today.  
The latest trend the forecast models show is that the system will move across the Caribbean and then be drawn north over Cuba and Haiti.  Then it could possible continue moving northward into the western Atlantic just east of the U.S. East Coast.  However, it is still a long way out, and a lot could change. If you are planning a trip to the Caribbean, you may want to have a backup plan! 
Right now, it is no direct threat to Louisiana, but it is still a long way out.  We will continue to track it. Stay tuned for updates here and on my Twitter and Facebook pages. -Dave


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