Skip to main content

Saturday Evening Invest 99 update...still disorganized

Invest 99 is now sitting just north of Central Cuba.  It is a little better organized today compared to yesterday as more showers and thunderstorms have developed around this system.  However, it overall is still disorganized.  It is still fighting off wind shear and some dry air.  Invest 99 is moving to the WNW and will enter the Florida Straits on Sunday.  NHC is giving it a medium chance for development in 2 days and in 5 days.  The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday.

Once it enters the Florida Straits, the system will have slightly better conditions for development.  Then it is forecast to continue to move to the WNW into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.  At this point, there will be better conditions for development where water temperatures are in the upper 80s.  However, the forecast models are still very uncertain of where Invest 99 will go.  The spaghetti plots show it could go anywhere from the Central Texas Coast to South Florida - basically anywhere in the Northern Gulf of Mexico! It is hard to put any faith into them right now.  Like I had mentioned yesterday, until there is a closed center of circulation and a developed area of low pressure, the forecast models will continue to have a hard time showing where the system will go.  Right now, they are best used to look for trends.  The trends I'm seeing show it moving at least into the Eastern Gulf and a lot of them show it turning north.  This will be something I will watch over the next few days.  

The latest GFS model now shows the system staying weak and possibly making a landfall over the Big Bend of Florida on Friday.  This morning, the model showed the system not developing into anything, so that is a change between the two runs. It is LIKELY this will change many more times too!

The Euro (ECMWF) now shows it developing into at least a tropical storm, if not more, and heading toward Pensacola, FL on Saturday.  This morning it had it as a weak low moving up the East Coast of Florida and staying out a sea.  Obviously, this is MUCH different than what it shows now, and it will LIKELY change again many times!  

Again, you can't put much faith into the models right now.  All you can do is use these as a guide!!  We will just have to wait and see what Invest 99 will do tomorrow and early this week. I know you want to know for sure what it will do, but I just can't answer that right now.  There are WAAAAAAAAY too many uncertainties in place to make that call.  

Since there have been SOOOO many changes already in what Invest 99 could so, and there will be SOOO many more changes coming, make sure you get the latest updates from me or any other reliable meteorologist.  Please be careful not to get caught up in some of these Facebook pages that are doing updates! They may have a lot of "likes", but know they most of them are not being updated by degreed  meteorologists! Did you know that?!?  It is true, so use caution if you see those pages show up in your feeds.  

Now is still a good time to get prepared just in case this system does develop in the Gulf of Mexico.  Have a plan of what to do and where to go.  Please stay tuned to WWL-TV and my updates here, on Facebook and Twitter.  Have a good night, and I will post another update on Sunday. -Dave


Popular posts from this blog

The Unseasonably Cool Weather Continues

Short Term Forecast:  It is a very cold morning across the Capital City with clear skies and temperatures in the 30s.  A light freeze is expected!  I hope that you brought in your plants last night.  Take that jacket with you this morning.

An area of high pressure remains over the Southeast U.S. today.  This will keep us sunny and with the northwest winds over us, we will stay cool.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s.

Another freeze is expected tonight for the Baton Rouge area.  We will be clear with calm winds and very good radiational cooling.  Low temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.  The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor from 2 AM to 8 AM Wednesday Morning.  The freeze could last 2 to 6+ hours and that would be long enough to kill any vegetation.  Make sure you bring in your plants or at least cover them tonight!  Bundle up!

Week Ahead:  The area of high pressure will stay put through Wednesday. …

Major Snowstorm Headed To Northeast US Tomorrow

For all of my friends and family that live in the Northeast is my latest analysis of the winter storm heading your way on Friday into Saturday:

The same area of low pressure that brought the heavy rain and thunderstorms to Louisiana last night and this morning will be moving up the East Coast on Friday.  It will get much stronger and become a  Nor' Easter that will impact all the major cities from Philly to NYC to Boston as well as inland areas.

Delmarva to NJ Coastal Areas:  Winter Storm Warning in effect from Friday AM until Saturday AM!  It looks like it will start out as a brief period of snow along the coast in the morning then change into a windy rain during the day.  Then go to a heavy snow late Friday into Saturday Morning.  Snow accumulations of 4-8" are possible.  Some minor ice accumulations are possible too. Winds will be sustained around 30+ mph and coastal erosion will be possible too.

NE PA: Winter Storm Warning from 10 am Friday until 7 am Saturday! …

Deadliest and Strongest Tornadoes In Louisiana History

If you are wondering what is the deadliest tornado ever to hit in the Baton Rouge was back on April 24, 1908 in Amite, LA to Purvis, MS.  (Grazulis, Thomas P. (1993). Significant Tornadoes 1680-1991: A Chronology and Analysis of Events. Environmental Films)  143 people lost their lives.  This was part of the 1908 Dixie Tornado Outbreak.  The storm started around 11:45 AM near Weiss, LA in Livingston Parish and tracked toward St. Helena Parish.  2 people were killed in Denham Springs and 2 in Montpelier.   Then it tracked toward Amite, LA where a path of damage was around 2 miles wide.  29 people were killed there.  It then traveled on the ground to Purvis, MS where the greatest damage was and most of the lives were lost.  The damage path was around 155 miles long.  

The F-Scale and  EF-Scale didn't exist then, so it was not given a rating at the time.  However, using recent technology and assessments, the storm would have been given an F-4 or EF-4 rating.  
This tornado wa…