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Monday Evening Tropical Depression 9 Update

Tropical Depression 9 still remains disorganized in the far Southeast Gulf of Mexico.  It is still battling wind shear and dry air thanks to an upper-level low over the NW Gulf. This is the same upper-level low that brought Louisiana rain the last few days. Winds are sustained at 35 mph according to the Hurricane Hunters.

Due to the disorganized nature of TD 9, I'm only expecting it to only get a little stronger in the next 24 hours.  It will be moving into warm Gulf Waters and the wind shear will be a little less than it is right now. Forecast now calls for it to become a minimal tropical storm on Tuesday with 40 to 45 mph winds. It will likely get the name Hermine (her-MEEN).

I'm still expecting the upper-level area of high pressure to move toward the Plains States. At the same time, a trough of low pressure will be over the East Coast, and it will send a backdoor cold front down to the Southeast U.S. As TD 9 moves into the Central Gulf, it will be pulled north by the trough. It is forecast to get a little stronger at this point, but still remain a tropical storm. Then as it moves closer to the Northern Gulf Coast, the cold front will help deflect it to the NE into the Big Bend area of Florida with landfall around Thursday Afternoon. It will still get a little stronger before landfall and could be a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Then it will cross Florida and move across the Atlantic. The forecast models are starting to come into better agreement with the forecast too. That is great news!

It is looking more and more like Louisiana will be in the clear with this storm! I still wouldn't put your guard down yet. I will feel more comfortable giving us the all clear once it stops moving west and turns to the north.  This should happen on Wednesday.  We will feel some impacts like higher coastal tides around 2 feet above normal for a few days with some strong easterly winds. Once the storm moves NE the tides will go down as northerly winds will be back.  We will also have some "drier" weather Thursday and Friday as dry air moves down from the north over us too! It won't be a huge break in the humidity, but we will take what we can get! Even the weekend doesn't look bad with only a slight chance for storms as the cold front will be along the Northern Gulf Coast. Overall, we should have some nice weather for Labor Day Weekend! 

Please continue to follow my updates here, on Facebook, Twitter and on WWL-TV.  I'll have a full update on Tuesday Morning on WWL_TV. Stay weather aware! -Dave


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