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Unseasonably Warm Today With Storms Returning on Halloween

Short Term Forecast:  We have a partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday Morning with patchy fog around Baton Rouge.  Watch out for some low visibilities near 1/4 mile.  It is mild with temperatures in the 60s.

We will have another unseasonably warm afternoon across the Capital City.  High pressure is still off to the east of Louisiana and that is allowing southeasterly winds to pump in the warm and humid air over us.  It will become a little breezy later today with winds around 10 to 15 mph.  All of this moisture will give us a mix of sun and clouds with high temperatures in the mid 80s.

The clouds will linger over the city tonight and it will be pretty muggy.  Low temperatures will be in the upper 60s.

Halloween Forecast:  Unfortunately the weather does not look good for Halloween this year.  A trough of low pressure will send a cold front across the Baton Rouge area by Thursday Night.  We will have some scattered showers and storms popping up ahead of the front during the day tomorrow.  Some of these storms could be strong with gusty winds and heavy rain.  High temperatures will be in the lower 80s.

A squall line of thunderstorms is forecast to develop tomorrow and race across Texas and into Louisiana on Thursday afternoon and evening.  The forecast models are still not in total agreement as to when the line will move through Baton Rouge.  Our RPM model doesn't show the line of storms moving through town until 10-11 PM Thursday.  The other forecast models are showing it moving through town around 6-7 PM.  Of course that would put it right during the trick-or-treat hours.  I will have a better handle on the timing of the storms on Thursday.  Once they form tomorrow morning I will be able to see how fast they move to the east. and I will be able to time them better at that point.

Once the line moves through on Halloween Evening the showers and storms will continue overnight as the cold front moves through and an area of low pressure forms along the front. This could lead to some of the storms becoming strong with gusty winds and heavy rain.  SPC put Western Louisiana and much of Western/Southern Mississippi in a Slight Risk for severe weather.  Forecast models are showing we could pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain!  Low temperatures will be in the mid 60s.

Friday will have some lingering showers in the morning as the cold front stalls along the coast.  Then another disturbance will move across Louisiana and push the front east of the state.  We will become partly cloudy by Friday Afternoon.  High temperatures will be in the upper 70s.  Friday Night will be clear and much cooler with lows near 50.

Weekend Outlook:  An area of high pressure will build over the Southern U.S.  This will make it sunny and MUCH COOLER and Saturday and Sunday.  Highs will be in the lower 70s on Saturday, but will struggle to get to 70 on Sunday.  Lows will be CHILLY on Saturday and Sunday Night as they fall to the lower to mid 40s.

Tropical Outlook:  Everything remains quiet in the tropics and it will stay that way through Thursday.

Enjoy the unseasonably warm temperatures and have a nice day! -Dave


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