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Expect More Showers and Storms Today, Still Watching The Tropics

Short Term Forecast:  We have a partly to mostly cloudy start to this Tuesday with some showers and storms already developing west of Baton Rouge.  These showers will slowly move into the Metro Area throughout the morning.  Temperatures are in the 70s.

The stationary front remains stalled west of Baton Rouge, and now an upper-level low has formed along it.  These two features will tap into the deep moisture over us and that will set off scattered showers and storms over Southeast Louisiana again today.  Some of the rain will be heavy at times, especially along the Coastal Parishes.  Be sure to use our Interactive Radar or FREE WBRZ Weather App to track the rain!  Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy warm and humid with high temperatures in the mid 80s.

The clouds and a few showers will lingering over the region tonight.  It will be warm and muggy with lows in the lower 70s.

Week Ahead:  The front will dissipate by Wednesday, but the upper-level low will slowly move to the northeast, or over Baton Rouge.  This will keep the threat for rain/storms in the forecast.  Therefore, you can expect mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and storms.  More heavy rain will be possible.  Highs will be in the mid 80s.  Wednesday Night will have partly cloudy skies with lows in the upper 60s.

The upper-level low will continue to move northeast and away from Louisiana on Thursday and Friday.  This will lower the chance of rain those days.  We will be partly cloudy and warmer with isolated afternoon showers and storms.  Highs will be in the upper 80s.  Each night will have a few clouds and it will stay muggy with lows in the lower 70s.

Weekend Forecast:  It looks like we will have a pretty soggy start to the weekend thanks to a strong cold front that will sweep across the country.  Saturday will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and storms developing during the day as the front moves closer to Baton Rouge.  At the same time, I will be watching the tropics to see how the low, currently in the Caribbean, evolves.  This low could give us some heavier rains if it is positioned south of Louisiana.  However, if it is more east of Louisiana, then the heaviest rains will be well east of the state.  Either way, plan for scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Highs will be in the mid 80s.  Saturday Night will be cloudy with shower and storms.  Lows will fall to the lower 60s once the front passes through town.

Sunday's weather will gradually get better.  The morning will have some clouds and a few showers, but it will become partly cloudy by the afternoon as the cold front moves east of Louisiana.  It will be cooler and less humid with highs in the lower 80s.  Sunday Night will finally feel like Fall!  We will be mostly clear with low temperatures in the upper 50s!!  How nice is that?!?

Tropical Outlook:  Tropical Storm Jerry is poorly organized as it sits out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.  Winds are 45 mph, pressure 1005 mph and it is stationary.  It will have a slow and erratic movement the next few days before it start to move north and east.

The large area of low pressure (Invest 97L) in the Western Caribbean is becoming better organized.  More showers and storms are forming around the center of the low.  It is forecast to move to the northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula over the next two days.  NHC is giving it a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during that time.  Conditions are expected to become more favorable for development as it moves into the NW Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico later this week.  NHC is giving it a medium chance of development over the next 5 days.

Looking at the latest forecast models, they are all picking up on the low, but they also show a strong cold front sweeping across the U.S. at the same time it moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico.  This should deflect the low to the northeast and away from Louisiana!  However, depending on the position of the low when the front moves into Louisiana, we could have some pretty heavy rain.  If the low is just south of LA, then we would likely get some extra tropical moisture from the low and have heavy rain.  If the low is east of LA, then we would not have as much rain from the front since the low would pull the rain east of us.  Needless to say, I will be watching this system closely!!

Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet.

Make sure you have your umbrella with you and have a great day! -Dave


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