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Another Day Of Rain and Watching Invest 97L

Short Term Forecast:  It is another mostly cloudy and muggy morning across the Baton Rouge area.  There are showers and storms along the coast that will be drifting inland during the morning hours and could give us a little rain before the morning is over.

An upper-level low is spinning over Northern Louisiana and Western Mississippi.  This low will continue to draw up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and help to set off more scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Some heavy rain will be possible.  High temperatures will be in the mid 80s.

Most of the rain will end tonight and we will be left with mostly cloudy skies.  Some coastal showers will persist overnight.  It will be warm and muggy with lows in the lower 70s.

Rest of the Week:  Some drier air will move over Baton Rouge on Thursday and we will not have as much rain.  Expect partly cloudy skies with only isolated showers and storms.  Highs will be in the upper 80s.  Thursday Night will have a few clouds with lows in the lower 70s.

Some additional moisture will stream northward from the Gulf over us on Friday.  This will give us a little better chance of some rain.  We will be partly cloudy with scattered showers and storms.  Highs will be in the upper 80s.  Friday Night will have some clouds with lows in the lower 70s.

Weekend Outlook:  A strong cold front will be sweeping across the U.S. on Saturday and will move into Baton Rouge by Saturday Night.  We will be warm and humid ahead of it with scattered showers and storms popping up as the day goes on.  Highs will be in the mid 80s.  As the cold front approaches Baton Rouge on Saturday Night, Invest 97L (the low in the Gulf of Mexico) will be close to Louisiana.  Depending on the exact position of this low, we could have a heavier rain event Saturday Night.  If the low is south of LA then we will have more heavy rain.  If the low is east of LA then we will not have as much heavy rain.  Needless to say, I will watch the evolution of the low closely!  Either way, the cold front will still move through by Sunday Morning and you can expect scattered to numerous showers and storms.  Lows will fall to the mid 60s.

The cold front will move east of LA on Sunday.  We will have a few showers in the morning, but we will become partly cloudy by the afternoon.  It will become less humid and cooler with highs only in the lower 80s.  Sunday Night will be mostly clear and MUCH COOLER with lows in the upper 50s!  Finally a taste of Fall!!!

Tropical Outlook:  Tropical Storm Jerry continues to spin in the Central Atlantic.  It is located about 1275 miles east of Bermuda with 40 mph winds, pressure is 1008 mb and it will be slowly moving NE out to sea.

The broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean, Invest 97L, remains disorganized.  It will move to the northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula today and over the peninsula tonight.  Then the system will emerge in the Southern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday.  Upper-level winds are expected to be somewhat favorable for possible development of this low later this week.  Some of the forecast models are showing this could become a tropical depression or even a tropical storm.  The forecast model plots are tracking the low northward toward Louisiana, but then send it more northeast as a strong cold front sweeps across the U.S.

As mentioned above, it looks like the timing of the front should send this low east of Louisiana.  However, depending on the position of the low when the front arrives, we could have some heavier rain over Southeast Louisiana.  If the cold front would slow down, the forecast would change and the low may directly affect part of the Gulf Coast States.  I will be closely watching the evolution of the low.  Be sure to check my weather blog over the next few days for additional updates!

Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet.

Try to stay dry and have a good Wednesday! -Dave


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