Skip to main content

Another Day Of Rain and Watching Invest 97L

Short Term Forecast:  It is another mostly cloudy and muggy morning across the Baton Rouge area.  There are showers and storms along the coast that will be drifting inland during the morning hours and could give us a little rain before the morning is over.


An upper-level low is spinning over Northern Louisiana and Western Mississippi.  This low will continue to draw up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and help to set off more scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Some heavy rain will be possible.  High temperatures will be in the mid 80s.

Most of the rain will end tonight and we will be left with mostly cloudy skies.  Some coastal showers will persist overnight.  It will be warm and muggy with lows in the lower 70s.

Rest of the Week:  Some drier air will move over Baton Rouge on Thursday and we will not have as much rain.  Expect partly cloudy skies with only isolated showers and storms.  Highs will be in the upper 80s.  Thursday Night will have a few clouds with lows in the lower 70s.


Some additional moisture will stream northward from the Gulf over us on Friday.  This will give us a little better chance of some rain.  We will be partly cloudy with scattered showers and storms.  Highs will be in the upper 80s.  Friday Night will have some clouds with lows in the lower 70s.

Weekend Outlook:  A strong cold front will be sweeping across the U.S. on Saturday and will move into Baton Rouge by Saturday Night.  We will be warm and humid ahead of it with scattered showers and storms popping up as the day goes on.  Highs will be in the mid 80s.  As the cold front approaches Baton Rouge on Saturday Night, Invest 97L (the low in the Gulf of Mexico) will be close to Louisiana.  Depending on the exact position of this low, we could have a heavier rain event Saturday Night.  If the low is south of LA then we will have more heavy rain.  If the low is east of LA then we will not have as much heavy rain.  Needless to say, I will watch the evolution of the low closely!  Either way, the cold front will still move through by Sunday Morning and you can expect scattered to numerous showers and storms.  Lows will fall to the mid 60s.

The cold front will move east of LA on Sunday.  We will have a few showers in the morning, but we will become partly cloudy by the afternoon.  It will become less humid and cooler with highs only in the lower 80s.  Sunday Night will be mostly clear and MUCH COOLER with lows in the upper 50s!  Finally a taste of Fall!!!

Tropical Outlook:  Tropical Storm Jerry continues to spin in the Central Atlantic.  It is located about 1275 miles east of Bermuda with 40 mph winds, pressure is 1008 mb and it will be slowly moving NE out to sea.


The broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean, Invest 97L, remains disorganized.  It will move to the northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula today and over the peninsula tonight.  Then the system will emerge in the Southern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday.  Upper-level winds are expected to be somewhat favorable for possible development of this low later this week.  Some of the forecast models are showing this could become a tropical depression or even a tropical storm.  The forecast model plots are tracking the low northward toward Louisiana, but then send it more northeast as a strong cold front sweeps across the U.S.


As mentioned above, it looks like the timing of the front should send this low east of Louisiana.  However, depending on the position of the low when the front arrives, we could have some heavier rain over Southeast Louisiana.  If the cold front would slow down, the forecast would change and the low may directly affect part of the Gulf Coast States.  I will be closely watching the evolution of the low.  Be sure to check my weather blog over the next few days for additional updates!

Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet.

Try to stay dry and have a good Wednesday! -Dave

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

The Unseasonably Cool Weather Continues

Short Term Forecast:  It is a very cold morning across the Capital City with clear skies and temperatures in the 30s.  A light freeze is expected!  I hope that you brought in your plants last night.  Take that jacket with you this morning.

An area of high pressure remains over the Southeast U.S. today.  This will keep us sunny and with the northwest winds over us, we will stay cool.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s.

Another freeze is expected tonight for the Baton Rouge area.  We will be clear with calm winds and very good radiational cooling.  Low temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.  The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor from 2 AM to 8 AM Wednesday Morning.  The freeze could last 2 to 6+ hours and that would be long enough to kill any vegetation.  Make sure you bring in your plants or at least cover them tonight!  Bundle up!

Week Ahead:  The area of high pressure will stay put through Wednesday. …

Major Snowstorm Headed To Northeast US Tomorrow

For all of my friends and family that live in the Northeast US...here is my latest analysis of the winter storm heading your way on Friday into Saturday:

The same area of low pressure that brought the heavy rain and thunderstorms to Louisiana last night and this morning will be moving up the East Coast on Friday.  It will get much stronger and become a  Nor' Easter that will impact all the major cities from Philly to NYC to Boston as well as inland areas.

Delmarva to NJ Coastal Areas:  Winter Storm Warning in effect from Friday AM until Saturday AM!  It looks like it will start out as a brief period of snow along the coast in the morning then change into a windy rain during the day.  Then go to a heavy snow late Friday into Saturday Morning.  Snow accumulations of 4-8" are possible.  Some minor ice accumulations are possible too. Winds will be sustained around 30+ mph and coastal erosion will be possible too.

NE PA: Winter Storm Warning from 10 am Friday until 7 am Saturday! …

More Heavy Rain and Storms Today

...Flash Flood Watch Through Thursday Evening...

Short Term Forecast:  We have a mostly cloudy, mild and muggy start to this Wednesday with a few showers on the radar.  Showers will continue to pop-up during the morning hours.  Temperatures are in the mid 60s.

The upper-level low remains parked over Louisiana this afternoon, and that will be the focus for setting off more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.  By the way...these upper-level lows are always a pain to forecast!  A few of the storms could be strong with gusty winds.  Heavy rain is likely once again thanks to the very saturated air over Baton Rouge.  We could pick up a few inches of rain today.  High temperatures will only be in the mid to upper 70s.

Due to the heavy rain we had yesterday, and the heavy rain expected today through Thursday, the NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for all of Southeast Louisiana.  Rainfall totals are forecast to be around 3 to 5 inches through Thursday Evening!  Please watch out fo…