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A Few More Storms Today and I'm Closely Watching Invest 97L

Short Term Forecast:  We have a partly to mostly cloudy morning across the Capital City with patchy fog.  Watch out for some low visibilities.  Temperatures are in the 70s.

You can expect a warm and humid afternoon as an area of high pressure sits to the east of Louisiana.  There will be enough moisture in the atmosphere to help set off isolated showers and storms with the heating of the day.  High temperatures will be in the upper 80s.

Some clouds will stick around tonight and we will see some patchy fog again.  Low temperatures will be in the lower 70s.

Friday will have more of the same weather - partly cloudy, warm and humid with isolated showers and storms.  High temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lows in the lower 70s on Friday Night with partly cloudy skies.

Weekend Outlook:  The forecast has changed a little bit since yesterday, and there is still some uncertainty in the forecast.  I'm not only watching a cold front that will sweep through Baton Rouge, but now I'm keeping an eye on a tropical system that may impact parts of Southeast Louisiana.  The forecast models are now showing that the cold front will not move through town until Sunday and they also do not show as much rain with it.  At the same time, they are showing a tropical system moving up through the Central Gulf of Mexico and making a landfall somewhere between LA and the FL Panhandle.  The cold front will be pulling the tropical system northward this weekend.  It looks like Baton Rouge will not see much of an impact at all from the tropical system, but parts of far SE LA could.  Needless to say I will be closely watching that system develop today and on Friday to see how it will interact with the front.  It looks like we will have a tropical storm at this point.  Fortunately, there will be a lot of wind shear over the Northern Gulf Coast thanks to the front, so I'm not expecting a major tropical event at this time.

Therefore, Saturday will be partly cloudy with scattered showers and storms.  It will be almost hot with highs in the upper 80s.  Saturday Night will be mostly cloudy with isolated to scattered showers and storms as the cold front moves closer to Baton Rouge.  Lows will be in the upper 60s.

The cold front will finally sweep across the city on Sunday.  We will have partly to mostly cloudy skies with isolated to scattered showers and storms.  High temperatures will now be in the mid 80s.  It will turn MUCH COOLER on Sunday Night with mostly clear skies and lows in the upper 50s!!

Tropical Outlook:  Invest 97L is much better organized today as it sits near the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.  It will likely become Tropical Storm Karen later today.  Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate it later and we will get a better idea of how strong it is once they get some data from it.  The data will be inputed into the models and they will give us a better idea of where it may track.  At the moment, this system is forecast to track to the north toward the Northern Gulf Coast States of LA to the FL Panhandle.

Conditions are favorable today and tomorrow for some strengthening, but then they are not favorable by Saturday as it will move through some strong wind shear.  Also, there is a lot of dry air over the Central and Western Gulf, and this will limit the amount of strengthening.  The cold front is still forecast to move in this weekend, but looks to be a little slower.  Now it will pass across SE LA on Sunday.  Due to this slow-down, the tropical system has a chance to make a landfall anywhere between LA and FL on Saturday/Sunday.  It is likely that the front will deflect the tropical system to the northeast and absorb it, but there is a chance that the far SE LA Coast could be impacted by it.  Needless to say, I will be CLOSELY watching this and you should too.

Keep it tuned to WBRZ and I will have a special weather blog for additional updates!!  

Tropical Depression Jerry remains out in the Central Atlantic and will become a remnant low later today.

Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are still quiet.

Have a good day and keep it tuned to WBRZ for updates on the tropics today!-Dave


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