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A Rainy Start To The Week, Keeping An Eye On The Tropics

Short Term Forecast:  A cold front is stalled to the northwest of Baton Rouge.  This is allowing for some showers to pop-up this morning with mostly cloudy skies.  Temperatures are around 70.

The front will remain stalled today, and a few disturbances will move along the front.  This will allow us to have scattered showers with a few thunderstorms this afternoon.  Some heavy rain is possible.  High temperatures will be held down thanks to the rain as they only climb into the lower to mid 80s.

The clouds and showers will stick around tonight.  Low temperatures will be in the lower 70s.

Week Ahead:  The front will remain stalled over the area on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Disturbances, and an upper-level low will move along the front, and this will continue to give us scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.  Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s each day.  We will be partly to mostly cloudy at night with a few showers possible.  Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The front will dissipate by Thursday and we will not have as much rain.  Expect partly cloudy skies with only isolated afternoon showers and storms popping up on Thursday and Friday with the heating of the day and sea breeze.  Highs will be in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Weekend Forecast:  A very strong cold front will move into the Baton Rouge area on Saturday.  We will have scattered showers and storms popping up during the afternoon and evening.  Highs will be in the mid 80s.  The front will move through town on Saturday Night and we will have scattered to numerous showers and storms.  Some could be strong at times!  Lows will fall to near 60.

Much COOLER weather will arrive on Sunday behind the front.  We will be mostly sunny with highs only around 80.  Sunday Night will be clear and cool with lows in the upper 50s.  Finally a taste of Fall!!

Tropical Outlook:  Tropical Depression 11 is still churning out in the Central Atlantic.  It is located about 1150 miles ESE of Bermuda.  Winds are 35 mph, pressure is 1010 mb and it is moving to the east at 5 mph.  A very slow and erratic movement is expected over the next few days as it remains out at sea.

Lastly, I'm watching a broad area of low pressure (Invest 97L) located over the Central Caribbean.  It remains disorganized as it moves to the NW over the next 2 days.  NHC is giving it a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.  In about 3-5 days, conditions appear more favorable for some development as it moves into the NW Caribbean and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  NHC is giving it a medium chance of development in the next 5 days.  The forecast models are showing a strong cold front sweeping across the Southeast U.S. at the same time this system is forecast to be in the Gulf.  The models are also showing this front picking up this low and moving it to the northeast toward Florida.  Needless to say, I will keep an eye on it.  It is not expected to be anything major at this point.

Take your umbrella and have a nice Monday! -Dave


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