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Unsettled Weather This Week

Short Term Forecast:  We have a mostly clear to partly cloudy morning across the Baton Rouge area.  This has made for some decent viewing of the Perseid Meteor Shower.  I was able to see a few meteors on my way into work this morning.  The meteor shower will peak this morning, but you will still be able to see a few meteors tonight.  Morning temperatures are in the 70s.

You can expect more unsettled weather today and really for much of this week.  We have deep tropical moisture streaming up from the Gulf thanks to a ridge of high pressure off the East Coast.  Combine that with a disturbance that will move by overhead, and that will allow us to have another good chance of rain.  We will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms starting from late morning through the afternoon.  Some heavy rain will be possible.  High temperatures will be in the lower 90s, and some of you will not get out of the 80s.

Some showers and storms will linger into the evening before they dissipate by 10 PM.  Then we will have partly cloudy skies with lows in the mid 70s.

Week Ahead:  As mentioned above, we will have an unsettled weather pattern this week.  This means you can plan for a decent chance of rain and storms each day.  Tuesday will have more scattered showers and storms as a few more disturbances, or areas of low pressure aloft, move over Baton Rouge.  This will help to set off the storms.  Therefore, it will be partly cloudy with scattered storms and heavy rain.  Some storms could be strong with gusty winds!  Highs will be in the lower 90s.  Tuesday Night will be partly cloudy with a spotty shower.  Lows will be in the mid 70s.

A trough of low pressure along the East Coast of the U.S. will send a cold front toward Louisiana on Thursday.  This will set off scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.  A few storms could be strong at times with gusty winds and heavy rain.  Highs will only be in the lower 90s.  Wednesday Night will be mostly cloudy with a few showers.  Lows will be in the mid 70s.

Even more rain and storms are expected on Thursday as the front pushes through Baton Rouge.  Some storms could still be strong and heavy rain is likely.  Highs will be around 90 and lows will be in the lower 70s.

The cold front will settle along the Louisiana Coast by Friday.  Some drier air starts to move behind the front, and that will limit the amount of rain we will have.  You can expect partly cloudy skies with only a few storms popping up.  It will be hot and humid with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s on Friday Night with mostly clear skies.

Weekend Outlook:  The drier air will stay over us this weekend, and that will help to dry us out.  An area of high pressure will build in behind the front.  This will make it partly cloudy with only a few pop-up afternoon storms on Saturday and Sunday.  Highs will be in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s.  However, I will be closely watching the tropics.  Read the Tropical Outlook below for more details on how that could change the forecast for this weekend.

Tropical Outlook:  Currently, there is a weak tropical wave in the Central Caribbean that could develop into an area of low pressure and turn into the Gulf of Mexico later this week.  It is too early to say if it will become a tropical system or not.  The GFS and Canadian Models are hinting that is will form into a low, and turn into the Gulf.  The European (ECMWF) says it will not be a low and will stay on a westward track into the Yucatan Peninsula.  Typically, if a wave doesn't develop into a low then it usually keeps on the westward track.  However, if it is a low, then the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. could pull it northward into the Gulf.  Also, there is the cold front that will be in the northern Gulf, and that could help to steer anything to the east of Louisiana.  Needless to say, I will be watching the evolution of this wave over the next few days.  One thing to note, back in 1969 Hurricane Camille formed in the Caribbean, went into the Gulf and made landfall on August 17th along the MS Coast.  It is possible for a system to form in mid-August!

Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet and will stay that way through Tuesday.

Keep the umbrella with you, and have a great day! -Dave


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