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Friday Update On Invest 92L In The Gulf of Mexico

Invest 92L has emerged from the Yucatan into the Gulf of Mexico this morning.  It remains disorganized with  showers and storms mainly on the eastern side of the broad area of low pressure.  It is forecast to move north and west into the Central Gulf over the next 24 hours.  A trough of low pressure will be moving down from Canada across the Southeast U.S. today and this weekend.  This trough will pull part of the disturbance northward into the Central Gulf.  A small piece of the disturbance will likely form into a little area of low pressure, and that will spread very heavy rain/storms across the LA/MS/AL/FL coasts.

Water Vapor Imagery is showing an upper-level low that is now interacting with the disturbance.  This low will move over the disturbance today and a surface low could form.  The Eastern U.S. trough will help to increase winds over the Gulf and that will limit the amount of development of the low.  If this disturbance tracks more to the north it will interact with the trough and not likely form.  In this scenario it will bring more heavy rain to the Northern Gulf Coast States.  If the disturbance/low moves more to the west toward Texas/Mexico it would not have as much wind shear since it will be staying south of the trough.  In this other scenario it could possibly develop into a tropical system (tropical depression or storm) as it tracks toward Texas/Mexico.

The forecast models are now showing more of a westward track of this disturbance into Texas/Mexico.  This would be great for Louisiana!  The Hurricane Hunters were scheduled to investigate this disturbance later today, but they have canceled the mission.  They might fly into it tomorrow to get more weather data, and this would be ingested into the forecast models.  It is worth noting that the models have been all over the place with this disturbance.  You typically see that when you do not have a defined area of low pressure.  Each model wants to put the center in a different location, and that makes it difficult to know where it will exactly go.  However, once a low forms, then the models will likely start to agree more.

With all of that in mind, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to what this disturbance will do.  I will have a better idea of how this disturbance will evolve later today and over the weekend.  Be sure to check with WBRZ,, my Facebook and Twitter feeds for updates later today and through the weekend! -Dave


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