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Few Showers This Weekend, Keeping An Eye On The Gulf of Mexico

Short Term Forecast:  The stationary front remains along the Louisiana Coast and some showers have been developing along it.  In Baton Rouge, we have partly to mostly cloudy skies with temperatures in the 70s.

The front will continue to sit along the coast today.  Some drier air will move in from the north, and that will prevent us from getting much, if any, rain.  We will be partly cloudy and hot with highs in the lower 90s.

Partly cloudy skies will stick around tonight, and it will be a tad cool.  Low temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Weekend Forecast:  All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico this weekend as Invest 92L moves into the Central Gulf.  There is a chance this system will survive some wind shear as a trough of low pressure moves down from Canada, and it could develop into something.  Regardless of development, it will send plenty of rain from the SE Louisiana Coast through the Florida Panhandle.

Baton Rouge will be partly cloudy with only a few showers possible on Saturday.  Highs will be in the lower 90s.  Saturday Night will have some clouds with lows in the lower 70s.

Some rain and storms will return on Sunday as the humidity increases over us and as that disturbance moves northward.  Again, the forecast will likely change depending on if the disturbance becomes a tropical system.  Right now, I'm calling for partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and storms.  Highs will be in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s.

Next Week Outlook:  Once again, if we have a tropical system in the Gulf the forecast will likely change.  As for now, I'm not including any tropical system in my forecast.

Monday through Friday will return to a more typical Summer-time weather pattern.  Each day will be hot and humid with isolated to scattered showers and storms popping up in the afternoon.  Highs will be in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s.

Tropical Outlook:  All eyes are on Invest 92L as it emerges from the Yucatan into the Gulf of Mexico today.  There are disorganized showers and storms associated with it and a broad area of low pressure.  It is forecast to move north and west into the Central Gulf over the next 24 hours.  As it does that, there is a trough of low pressure that will be moving down from Canada across the Southeast U.S.  This trough will pull part of the disturbance northward toward LA/MS/AL.  This will likely form into a little low, and that will spread very heavy rain/storms across those coasts.

Water Vapor Imagery is showing an upper-level low that is interacting with the disturbance.  This low will move over the disturbance today and a surface low could form.  The Eastern U.S. trough will help to increase winds over the Gulf and that will limit the amount of development of the low.  If this disturbance tracks to the north it will interact with the trough and not likely form, but it will bring more heavy rain to the Northern Gulf Coast States.  If the disturbance/low moves more to the west it would not have as much wind shear, and it could possible develop into a tropical system as it tracks toward Texas/Mexico.

The forecast models are now showing more of a westward track of this disturbance into Texas/Mexico.  This would be great for Louisiana!  The Hurricane Hunters were scheduled to investigate this disturbance later today, but they have canceled the mission.

With all of that in mind, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to what this disturbance will do.  Be sure to check with WBRZ,, my Facebook and Twitter feeds for updates later today and through the weekend!

Elsewhere in the tropics...we have Tropical Storm Erin way out in the Eastern Atlantic, 430 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.  Winds are 40 mph, pressure is 1007 mb and it is moving to the WNW at 16 mph.  It is forecast to stay out in the middle of the Atlantic and only get slightly stronger.

Enjoy the somewhat less humid weather and keep an eye on the tropics this weekend.  Have a great day! -Dave


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