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Some Stormy Weather To Start The Weekend

Short Term Forecast:  Once again we have a partly to mostly cloudy start to the day with isolated showers and storms popping up along the Coastal Parishes.  Some of this rain could move northward toward Baton Rouge during the morning commute.  Temperatures are in the 70s.


We will continue to be hot today, but there will be a little better chance of some rain.  An area of low pressure with associated cold and warm fronts is located to the northwest of Louisiana.  It will be moving toward us this afternoon.  We will be hot and humid ahead of it, and the sea breeze will help to set off isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  High temperatures will be in the lower 90s.  The heat index will be around 100°.

The showers and storms will taper off this evening, but they another batch of rain and storms will arrive overnight into Saturday Morning with mostly cloudy skies.  Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s.

Weekend Forecast:  It looks like the weekend will start out pretty soggy on Saturday, but we will have fewer storms by Sunday.  The area of low pressure will be accompanied by a short wave, or disturbance.  Together, they will spread scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over Baton Rouge beginning on Saturday Morning and lasting all day.  Some heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible with any storm.  High temperatures will only make it to the upper 80s with any sunshine we will see.  The bulk of the rain will end by Saturday Night and we will be partly cloudy with lows in the lower 70s.


Some drier air moves over us on Sunday.  This will make it partly cloudy with only a few thunderstorms popping up.  It will be hotter with highs back in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s.

Next Week Outlook:  Monday will be just like Sunday - partly cloudy and hot with a few pop-up afternoon thunderstorms.  Highs will be in the lower 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

A weak disturbance is forecast to move over Baton Rouge on Tuesday.  This will increase the chance of rain.  You can expect partly cloudy skies with isolated to scattered showers and storms.  Highs will be in the lower 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

Wednesday through Friday will have more typically Summer-time weather.  Each day will be partly cloudy with isolated afternoon showers and storms coming from the sea breeze.  High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

Tropical Outlook:  Tropical Storm Dorian is much weaker today.  Winds are down to 50 mph, the pressure is 1001 mb and the storm is moving to the WNW at 20 mph.  Some wind shear is currently moving over it and some drier air is being ingested into it.  This has caused the center of circulation to be exposed verses the storms being wrapped around the center.  I am expecting this to continue for the next few days.  It is possible that Dorian could weaken into a tropical depression or just a remnant low during this time.  By early next week, the models are hinting that Dorian will be out of the wind shear and could strengthen once again.  The models are also showing a pretty good spread as to where it will track.  The southern extent shows the storm moving over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola while others take it over the Bahamas.  It is still too early to say if Dorian will move into the Gulf of Mexico.  I will have a better take on it by Monday.


Here is an interesting fact...Dorian is only the 4th "Cape Verde" tropical cyclone to form in the month of July. The most recent one was Hurricane Bertha in 2008.  In 1967, Tropical Storm Ana formed on July 25th and Tropical Storm Alex was in 1998.  Thank to the NWS Office in Slidell, LA for this info!!

Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet and will stay that way through the weekend.

Get ready for some rain this weekend, and have a good one! -Dave

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