Meteorologist Dave Nussbaum's Weather Blog

The remnants of Barbara, the hurricane that hit Southern Mexico on Thursday, is now being investigated for possible tropical development in the Bay of Campeche, or Southern Gulf of Mexico.  It has been called Invest 90L. The GFS (American), ECMWF (European) and Canadian models have been picking up on this the last few days (see my blog posts from the last 2 days).  It looks like it will be slow to develop thanks to some wind shear, but it will begin to relax later next week.  Also, a cold front will move into the Northern Gulf Sunday Night/Monday.  The front will be falling apart, and sometimes when that happens, it helps to form an area of low pressure.  At the moment, the forecast models show it developing into an area of low pressure, and moving northeast into the Central Gulf of Mexico where water temperatures are in the lower 80s - you need a minimum water temperature of 80 for a storm to form.  Once it is in the South-Central Gulf the models take ...

Short Term Forecast :  We have a mostly cloudy and very muggy morning across Baton Rouge.  A few showers are also popping up.  Temperatures are in the lower 70s. The deep tropical moisture that has been over us the last few days is moving east of Louisiana.  Some drier air aloft is moving over Baton Rouge, and this will help to limit the amount of rain and storms we will see today.  You still need to plan on dodging isolated to scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and into the evening with some heavy rain.  It will be hotter and still humid with highs around 90. Some clouds will linger over the city tonight with a few spotty showers.  It will stay warm and muggy with lows in the lower 70s. Weekend Forecast :  More of the same weather is on tap for Saturday.  That means we will be partly cloudy with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening hours.  It will still be hot and humid wit...

Barbara made landfall last night over Southern Mexico as a hurricane.  It is falling apart today as the remnants drift into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, or Bay of Campeche.  As of this afternoon it is still a tropical depression, but it is poorly formed thanks to the mountains ripping it up.  Now many of you are wondering will it stay a depression or develop more over the Bay of Campeche?? Most of the forecast models are showing it meandering over the Southern Bay of Campeche the next few days and not doing much.  At the moment, it looks like it is having a very hard time maintaining a center of circulation at the surface.  You see a swirl in the satellite images, but the winds are not indicating that on the ground.  However, a few models are showing it moving into the Eastern Gulf later next week and heading toward Florida.  It could be getting sheared apart from the upper-level winds and that may bring some rains to Florida later in the week. ...

Short Term Forecast :  It is a mostly cloudy morning with isolated showers across Southeast Louisiana.  We have very warm and muggy temperatures in the lower 70s. You can expect another day today just like we had on Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  This is all thanks to some deep tropical moisture moving over Louisiana from the Caribbean and daytime heating.  Some of the rain will be heavy at times and a few storms could be strong with gusty winds.  Highs will be in the upper 80s. We will be mostly cloudy with a few showers tonight.  It will stay warm and muggy with lows in the lower 70s. Some drier air aloft will move over Baton Rouge on Friday.  This will limit the amount of rain/storms we will see, but I can't totally take them out of the forecast.  Therefore, we will be partly cloudy with isolated to scattered showers and storms.  It will be hot and humid with highs around 90.  Friday Night will be partly...

Short Term Forecast :  We have a mostly cloudy and muggy start to this Wednesday Morning across the Baton Rouge area.  Temperatures are in the upper 60s. Get ready for some rain and thunderstorms today.  This is thanks to a plume of deep tropical moisture streaming north from the Caribbean.  At the same time a trough of low pressure will be inching closer to Louisiana.  Combine that with daytime heating and a sea breeze, and we will get scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.  A few storms could be strong with gusty winds and heavy rain.  High temperatures will be in the mid 80s. The bulk of the rain will end tonight, but we could still have a spotty shower popping up overnight.  Otherwise, it will be partly to mostly cloudy with lows in the lower 70s. Rest of the Week :  The deep tropical moisture will remain over us on Thursday as well as the trough of low pressure.  A weak disturbance is being pick up by the forecast mo...

Short Term Forecast :  It is a very muggy start to this Tuesday with mostly clear skies and temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. An area of high pressure is sitting along the East Coast.  This is bringing southerly winds over Louisiana and that is pumping in the warm and humid air from the Gulf.  This will lead to another day similar to Monday with partly cloudy skies and spotty showers and storms during the afternoon.  Highs will be in the upper 80s. We will have a few clouds tonight and it will be pretty sticky.  Low temperatures will only fall to the lower 70s. Week Ahead :  Some deep tropical moisture will stream up from the Caribbean all the way to Louisiana on Wednesday and Thursday.  This will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop on Wednesday all around Baton Rouge.  Some storms could become strong with heavy rain and gusty winds.  Highs will be in the mid 80s.  Wednesday Nig...

Short Term Forecast :  We start this Memorial Day Monday with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. We will have a decent day weather-wise, but thanks to a weak disturbance and Gulf Moisture, we will have to dodge a few showers and storms today.  Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Expect a few clouds to stick around tonight and it will be a little muggy.  Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s. Week Ahead :  We will be partly cloudy with only spotty showers and storms on Tuesday as some drier air moves over the state.  Highs will be in the upper 80s.  Tuesday Night will be partly cloudy and muggy with lows in the upper 60s. A surge of Gulf Moisture will move up from the Southern Gulf toward Louisiana on Wednesday and Thursday.  Combine that with daytime heating and we will see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop.  Some storms could be strong at ti...

NOAA has officially released their predictions for the 2013 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season.  Colorado State released theirs a few weeks ago too.  They both agree that we will have a very active season! This is because El Nino is not expected to form.  If El Nino forms then we would have fewer storms thanks to an increased amount of wind shear across the tropics.  If La Nina forms then we would have very little, if any, wind shear.  You do not want wind shear if you want storms to develop.  This year we are expected to be neutral - meaning no El Nino or La Nina.  That will still lead to a low amount of wind shear, hence more names storms possible. Also,  they are expecting above average sea surface temperatures in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean.  Right now, the water temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s.  80° water temperature is the minimum temperature needed for a tropical system to form. Here is a look at the specific num...

Short Term Forecast :  All of the heavy rain and storms from last night have dissipated.  We are left with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies this morning.  Temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will sweep through the Baton Rouge area today.  This will give us partly cloudy skies and help to set off isolated showers and thunderstorms.  A few storms could be strong at times with heavy rain and gusty winds.  We will still have a hot day with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. The front will be in the Gulf of Mexico tonight and the skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy.  It will turn less humid and much cooler with lows in the lower 60s. Memorial Day Weekend Forecast :  If you have any plans this weekend to be at the Gonzales Jambalaya Festival, Bayou Country Superfest or anything else then you will love this forecast!!  An area of high pressure will sit over the Southeast U.S. all weekend.  This will give us...

Short Term Forecast :  We have some partly to mostly cloudy skies with patchy fog on this Thursday Morning.  Visibilities could quickly drop, so be careful!  It is warm and muggy with temperatures in the upper 60s. A cold front will be sitting north of Louisiana today, and that puts Baton Rouge in a very warm and humid air mass.  This will give us partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and storms popping up this afternoon.  A few storms could produce some heavy rain.  Highs temperatures will be around 90. The cold front will be drifting to the south tonight and that will allow for a few showers to linger.  Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy and muggy with lows in the upper 60s. That front will move through town on Friday.  It will give us partly cloudy skies along with a few showers and storms.  We will still be hot and humid with highs around 90.  The front will be along the coast by Friday Night.  We will become mostly...

Short Term Forecast :  We start this Wednesday with plenty of rain and storms moving through the Baton Rouge area.  Some could be strong with gusty winds, heavy rain, hail and frequent lightning strikes.  Temperatures are in the 70s ahead of the rain, but will fall into the 60s where it is raining. After the first batch of rain this morning, we will see a break before the next batch comes in for this afternoon.  The forecast models are way off on the timing of the rain and storms today, so the forecast will be a little tricky this afternoon.  Based off of current radar trends, I'm going to say we will see the redevelopment of the rain by the afternoon.  However, if some drier air, which is currently over Texas, gets here sooner, then our chance for rain will be decreased.  All of this rain is due to a trough of low pressure and a disturbance that is moving north of Louisiana.  We will see some sunshine peaking through the clouds and th...

If you are wondering what is the deadliest tornado ever to hit in the Baton Rouge area...it was back on April 24, 1908 in Amite, LA to Purvis, MS.  (Grazulis, Thomas P. (1993). Significant Tornadoes 1680-1991: A Chronology and Analysis of Events. Environmental Films)  143 people lost their lives.  This was part of the 1908 Dixie Tornado Outbreak.  The storm started around  11 :45 AM  near Weiss, LA in Livingston Parish and tracked toward St. Helena Parish.  2 people were killed in Denham Springs and 2 in Montpelier.   Then it tracked toward Amite, LA where a path of damage was around 2 miles wide.  29 people were killed there.  It then traveled on the ground to Purvis, MS where the greatest damage was and most of the lives were lost.  The damage path was around 155 miles long.   The F-Scale and  EF-Scale didn't exist then, so it was not given a rating at the time.  However, using recent technology and assessments, ...

From  +Ginger Zee   Thoughts and prayers go out to those who were hit by that incredible tornado yesterday.  Preliminary reports show that it was at least an EF-4 with 160-200 mph winds, but looking at the damage, it could be even rated an EF-5.  A number of lives were lost and even more could be found today.  It was so sad to see the children that were killed.  Even more could have been lost if it were not for the great efforts the teachers had to keep the kids safe.  A special thanks goes out to all of those first responders who were there and are still there searching for people, and to the local meteorologists who were getting the word out about the tornado heading toward Moore, OK.  Great job! If it were not for them, many others may have lost their lives. Oklahomans are accustom to tornadoes as we are used to hurricanes.  However, when they get as large and dangerous as yesterday's there is not much you can do, but to get underg...

Short Term Forecast :  We have another very oven-like morning across the Capital City.  That means when you open your front door the warm and humid temperatures hit your face just like when you open an over door!  UGH!.  It is mostly cloudy with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. We had our first official 90 degree day in 2013 yesterday, and it looks like we will have our 2nd one today!  Expect much of the same weather with partly cloudy skies and a few showers and storms popping up during the afternoon.  High temperatures will be in the lower 90s. It will become mostly cloudy tonight, and it looks like we will see some rain and thunderstorms moving toward Baton Rouge overnight.  These storms will be coming from the Southern Great Plains and North Louisiana.  A few storms could be strong at times with heavy rain, hail and gusty winds.  Lows will fall to the lower 70s. Week Ahead :  Wednesday Morning will start out with more rain...

Short Term Forecast :  We have a very warm and muggy start to the day in Baton Rouge.  It is mostly cloudy with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Ugh! An area of high pressure remains over the Southeast U.S.  This will limit the amount of rain we will see today, but with daytime heating we could have a few showers or storms popping up.  Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy and almost hot with high temperatures in the upper 80s. You can expect another sticky night with very warm low temperatures in the lower 70s under mostly cloudy skies. Week Ahead :  More of the same weather is on tap for Tuesday - partly cloudy, very warm and humid with spotty afternoon showers.  Highs will be in the upper 80s.  Tuesday Night will be mostly cloudy and very muggy with lows in the lower 70s. The weather will start to change a little on Wednesday.  The area of high pressure will be well east of Louisiana.  Also, a cold front will move into parts...

Short Term Forecast :  We have a very warm and muggy morning across the Capital City with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Get ready for another day just like yesterday as an area of low pressure and an upper-level low move northeast of Louisiana.  This will give us a mix of sun and clouds with a few spotty showers popping up with the daytime heating.  It will be very warm and humid with high temperatures in the mid 80s. The clouds will stick around tonight, and that will make it mostly cloudy.  We will stay warm and muggy with low temperatures in the upper 60s. Weekend Forecast :  Get ready for some almost hot temperatures this weekend.  I say almost hot because I reserve the term "hot" for when it is 90 or higher.  An area of high pressure will sit over the Deep South this weekend and that will provide us with plenty of sunshine.  It will become very humid, so we will have some clouds eac...

Short Term Forecast :  We have a partly to mostly cloudy start to this Thursday as clouds are moving over Baton Rouge from the storms over Eastern Texas.  A few showers are possible during the morning hours as well.  It is still a little cool with temperatures in the 60s. The upper-level and surface lows will be moving north of Louisiana, or over Arkansas today.  They will be close enough to help set off isolated showers and storms.  Also, the storms coming out of the Arklatex this morning will aid in setting of a few showers this afternoon.  We will be warm and humid with highs in the mid 80s. Any rain that does develop will dissipate this evening and we will be left with partly cloudy skies overnight.  It will be warm and muggy with lows in the upper 60s. Friday will be very warm and humid with some afternoon showers and thunderstorms popping up.  Most of you will not likely see any rain.  Highs will be in the mid 80s.  Friday Ni...

Short Term Forecast :  We have a pretty pleasant and cool morning across Southeast Louisiana.  It is clear with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Expect another nice day in Baton Rouge!  High pressure is just east of Louisiana and that will allow for southerly winds to pump in some more moisture today.  This will give us partly cloudy skies along with more humid conditions.  High temperatures will be in the mid 80s. We will have some clouds sticking around tonight and it will be a little muggy.  Lows will fall to the lower 60s. Rest of the Week :  An upper-level low will move out of Texas and over Louisiana on Thursday.  This low will have plenty of moisture in the low levels of the atmosphere, but it will be very dry aloft.  Due to this, we will have a few showers and t'storms popping up.  Most of you will not see any rain.  Otherwise, we will be partly cloudy, warm and humid with highs in the mid 80s.  Thursda...

Short Term Forecast :  We have a clear morning across the Capital City.  It is a little cool with temperatures in the 50s.  You may want that jacket as you head out the door. Expect a gorgeous day all around the Baton Rouge area.  An area of high pressure remains over us, and that will allow for plenty of sunny skies today.  It will become warmer with highs in the mid 80s. We'll have another comfortable night with mostly clear skies.  It will still be a little cool with low temperatures in the upper 50s. Week Ahead :  The area of high pressure will move east of Louisiana on Wednesday, and that will allow for the winds to start pumping in more humid air from the Gulf.  We will be partly cloudy, warm and humid with highs in the lower to mid 80s.  Wednesday Night will have a few clouds with lows in the lower 60s. A weak upper-level low will move from the Southwest U.S. into the Southeast U.S. on Thursday.  It will be moving into som...

Short Term Forecast :  It is a clear to mostly clear start to this Monday with some cool to chilly temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s.  You may want a jacket as you head out the door! You can expect a gorgeous day with plenty of sunshine and a few clouds across the sky as high pressure sits over us.  We will still have some northerly winds in place, so it will not get too warm today.  High temperatures will be in the lower 80s. We will have a mostly clear night and it will still be a little cool.  Low temperatures will fall to the mid 50s. Week Ahead :  The area of high pressure will remain over us on Tuesday.  This will keep it sunny, but we will become a little warmer as the northerly winds are replaced by more southerly ones.  High temperatures will be in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s on Tuesday Night. The high pressure will be east of Louisiana on Wednesday, and that means the winds will be out of the south.  This ...

Short Term Forecast :  It was a very stormy start to this Friday.  We have severe thunderstorms moving through Baton Rouge starting around 4:45 AM through the 7 AM hour.  There were numerous reports of hail, strong winds, flooding and power outages.  We picked up 1-3 inches of rain already today!!  Due to the rain we already picked up and expecting an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain between now and Saturday, the NWS has issued a  Flash Flood Watch through Saturday Evening.  At the moment, the severe weather threat has ended.  We are cloudy with some light to moderate rain.  Temperatures are in the 60s. We could see some strong to possibly severe storms fire back up again later today.  This is all due to a cold front and disturbances slowly moving across Louisiana today.  Any storms that pop-up later could still have heavy rain, hail and damaging winds.  Otherwise, we will be mostly cloudy, warm and humid with highs strugg...

Here are some rain totals from this morning around Baton Rouge: 2.68" Starring Education Center, Starring Lane, Baton Rouge 2.43" Westdale Heights Academy, Baton Rouge 2.31" St. Aloysius School, Baton Rouge - Southdowns areas 2.17" Sacred Heart School, Baton Rouge 2.10" Cohn ES, Port Allen 1.91" Ascension Parish OEP, Gonzales 1.85" Walker 1.83" MOHSEP, Baton Rouge 1.61" Pointe Coupee OHSEP, Morganza This has caused some flooding issues around SE LA this morning.  We will have more rain and storm developing throughout today and Saturday.  We could pick up an additional 1-3 inches on top of what we received this morning!  The NWS has a Flash Flood Watch in effect through Saturday Evening due to this.  Remember DO NOT drive through flooded roadways!!  Turn Around. Don't Drown!

SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 AM for all of the WBRZ Viewing area!   Storms have developed over Texas and raced into Louisiana overnight.  These storms have a history of being severe in Texas and Western Louisiana with large hail and damaging winds.  That trend will continue across the Baton Rouge area and all of Southeast Louisiana until 10 AM.   Additionally, heavy rain is expected, and we could pick up a few inches of rain.  Due to this, the NWS in Slidell, has issued a Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM until Saturday Night.  Thanks to the rain we had last weekend the ground is still very saturated.  Any rain that falls today will likely run off and fill streams, creeks, drainage ditches and eventually local rivers.  Flash flooding could happen very quickly this morning and again on Saturday.  Remember DO NOT drive through flooded roadways!  It only takes 2 feet of water to float a car!  Turn around, Don't...

Short Term Forecast :  We begin this Thursday with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies as clouds stream in from old thunderstorms over the Great Plains.  Some patchy fog has also been reported around Baton Rouge.  It is a warm and muggy morning with temperatures in the lower to mid 60s. We will keep more clouds around today and that will make for a mix of sun and clouds.  It will be warmer and more humid as the area of high pressure has moved over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.  This will pump in the warm and humid southerly winds over the state.  High temperatures will be in the mid 80s. Expect mostly cloudy skies tonight and we could have some isolated showers popping up toward daybreak Friday.  Otherwise, it will be warm and muggy with some fog.  Low temperatures will be in the upper 60s. The weather will go downhill on Friday as a cold front with some disturbances moves into Louisiana.  This will set off scattered to numerous showers a...