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Watching The Tropics and Barbara

Barbara made landfall last night over Southern Mexico as a hurricane.  It is falling apart today as the remnants drift into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, or Bay of Campeche.  As of this afternoon it is still a tropical depression, but it is poorly formed thanks to the mountains ripping it up.  Now many of you are wondering will it stay a depression or develop more over the Bay of Campeche??

Most of the forecast models are showing it meandering over the Southern Bay of Campeche the next few days and not doing much.  At the moment, it looks like it is having a very hard time maintaining a center of circulation at the surface.  You see a swirl in the satellite images, but the winds are not indicating that on the ground.  However, a few models are showing it moving into the Eastern Gulf later next week and heading toward Florida.  It could be getting sheared apart from the upper-level winds and that may bring some rains to Florida later in the week.  Fortunately, a cold front will be moving over us on Sunday and it will sit in the Northern Gulf early next week.  This "could" possibly keep it away from Louisiana, but that is not 100% certain.  However, it is WAY too early to make a call as for if it will redevelop.  Needless to say, I'll be watching it over the next few days.
  


Also, there is a new rule that the National Hurricane Center has put into effect concerning if a storm comes from the Pacific to the Atlantic Basin and vice-versa!  It states that if it remains a tropical cyclone as it moves over Central America then it will KEEP the original name.  Only if the tropical cyclone dissipates with just a tropical disturbance remaining, will the NHC give the system a new name - assuming it becomes a tropical cyclone once again in the new basin.

Stay tuned for updates, IF NEEDED, the next few days.

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