Skip to main content

Watching The Tropics and Barbara

Barbara made landfall last night over Southern Mexico as a hurricane.  It is falling apart today as the remnants drift into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, or Bay of Campeche.  As of this afternoon it is still a tropical depression, but it is poorly formed thanks to the mountains ripping it up.  Now many of you are wondering will it stay a depression or develop more over the Bay of Campeche??

Most of the forecast models are showing it meandering over the Southern Bay of Campeche the next few days and not doing much.  At the moment, it looks like it is having a very hard time maintaining a center of circulation at the surface.  You see a swirl in the satellite images, but the winds are not indicating that on the ground.  However, a few models are showing it moving into the Eastern Gulf later next week and heading toward Florida.  It could be getting sheared apart from the upper-level winds and that may bring some rains to Florida later in the week.  Fortunately, a cold front will be moving over us on Sunday and it will sit in the Northern Gulf early next week.  This "could" possibly keep it away from Louisiana, but that is not 100% certain.  However, it is WAY too early to make a call as for if it will redevelop.  Needless to say, I'll be watching it over the next few days.
  


Also, there is a new rule that the National Hurricane Center has put into effect concerning if a storm comes from the Pacific to the Atlantic Basin and vice-versa!  It states that if it remains a tropical cyclone as it moves over Central America then it will KEEP the original name.  Only if the tropical cyclone dissipates with just a tropical disturbance remaining, will the NHC give the system a new name - assuming it becomes a tropical cyclone once again in the new basin.

Stay tuned for updates, IF NEEDED, the next few days.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Comparison between Hurricane Matthew's possible forecast track loop vs Hurricane Betsy's

Some of you have been calling to say that Matthew's forecast to do a loop in the Atlantic Ocean off the SE U.S. is the same as what Hurricane Betsy did back in 1965. Well...that is not true. Betsy formed on August 27, 1965 just off the Leeward Islands. It quickly became a tropical storm on the same day, and then became a hurricane on August 29.  It made a few loops in its track with one north of Puerto Rico and a second north of the Bahamas.  There is a strong area of high pressure that was preventing Betsy from moving to the north, and that is what caused it to loop.  After the second loop, it then moved SW across the Bahamas, then turned west to move over far South Florida and then into the Gulf.  It eventually turned to the NW and quickly tracked right to New Orleans where it made landfall as a major hurricane on September 9th. Hurricane Matthew formed in the Atlantic east of the Leeward Islands as a tropical storm on September 28. It quickly moved west into t...

The Unseasonably Cool Weather Continues

Short Term Forecast :  It is a very cold morning across the Capital City with clear skies and temperatures in the 30s.  A light freeze is expected!  I hope that you brought in your plants last night.  Take that jacket with you this morning. An area of high pressure remains over the Southeast U.S. today.  This will keep us sunny and with the northwest winds over us, we will stay cool.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Another freeze is expected tonight for the Baton Rouge area.  We will be clear with calm winds and very good radiational cooling.  Low temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.  The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor from 2 AM to 8 AM Wednesday Morning.  The freeze could last 2 to 6+ hours and that would be long enough to kill any vegetation.  Make sure you bring in your plants or at least cover them tonight!  Bundle ...

Flash Flood Watch now until Thursday Evening for WBRZ Viewing Area

The NWS in Slidell, LA has issued a  Flash Flood Watch for all of the WBRZ Viewing Area starting now and continuing until Thursday Evening. Rain has been falling for the last few hours and we have already picked up over 1.30" in Baton Rouge.  This is WAY more than the forecast models were predicting for this time.  The area of low pressure continues to develop over South Texas and a warm front will move up from the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday Morning.  This will spread widespread rain and a few thunderstorms over Southern Louisiana all night and into Wednesday.  Then it looks like we will taper off the rain to just scattered showers during the day on Wednesday. On Wednesday Night, a cold front will move out of Texas into Louisiana.  As this happens, a squall line of thunderstorms is expected to move ahead of it and through Baton Rouge on Thursday Morning.  Some of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds and a few tornadoes. ...