Meteorologist Dave Nussbaum's Weather Blog

Whoa...wait a minute?  Say what?  No, that isn't a typo! A somewhat unusual lunar event known as a Black Moon will occur this Friday, September 30th. A Black Moon is when you have 2 new moons in one month. It is opposite to the more well known, Blue Moon when there are 2 full moons in one month. Unfortunately, you will not be able to see the Black Moon since the Earth's facing side of the moon will be in its shadow. The last time we had a Black Moon was back in March of 2014. According to NASA, "Black Moon" isn't even a scientific term. It also has been used to describe a month that doesn't have a full moon, or to describe a third full moon in a season that has four full moons. By the way...there will not be a Blue Moon in 2017. The next one will be on January 31, 2018.

Matthew rapidly intensified overnight in the Central Caribbean. Winds are now 115 mph and it is forecast maintain this strength for the next few days.  It is battling some wind shear, but that hasn't weakened the storm. There is a ridge of high pressure to the north of Matthew that is steering it to the west to WSW for the next day or so with a slower forward speed.  Then the ridge will weaken over the Atlantic, and a trough of low pressure will move over the Gulf of Mexico and Eastern U.S. This will cause Matthew to turn to the north, and head toward Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba.  However, there is some disagreement with the forecast models as to where and when it will turn to the north.  The ECMWF (Euro) and the UKMET show it more to the east and the GFS and other show it a little more to the west. The NHC has taken a middle of the road approach to the model spread.  This shows it moving just east of Jamaica early Monday Morning and over Eastern Cuba early T...

Tropical Storm Matthew is getting better organized in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. At the moment it is battling some strong wind shear, and that is keeping the storms from wrapping around the center of circulation.  The wind shear is expected to relax tomorrow, and then it is forecast to be a hurricane in the Central Caribbean Sea.  A turn to the north is expected as a front/upper level trough moves off the eastern U.S. pulls the storm northward.   The forecast models are not in agreement on how fast Matthew will pull to the north, but they show it happening by next week. The other issue the models do not agree on is the speed the storm moves, or the amount of wind shear.  GFS shows less shear than the ECMWF, and that would mean a stronger system.  The  GFS  is also much quicker showing Matthew over Cuba on Tuesday AM and the  ECMWF  shows it only south of Haiti.  Then the  GFS  shows the system off North Carolina on Thursday...

Invest 97 is getting better organized in the Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a high chance of developing in the next few days.  It is also quickly moving to the west toward the Caribbean Sea. It does not have a closed circulation, but that could change soon.  It has been battling some wind shear, but it is forecast to relax and that will give it a chance to become even more organized. Therefore, it could become a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next 24 hours. Right now, it looks like it could move into the Eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek, but the forecast models are not agreeing on what route it will take.  It could take a southerly route and stay close to the coast of South America according to the European forecast model. This nearness to land, as well as strong upper winds in that part of the Caribbean Sea, may force the system to weaken a little. However, it could stay just a little farther north and strengthen into possibly...

The cold front has moved through and now some less humid air is working into the area.  We will have an area of high pressure build over us today, so expect plenty of sunshine.  Unfortunately, the cold front will not cool us down with high temperatures in the mid 90s. It will be a nice day to sit at the pool!  If you have to work outside, find ways to stay cool and hydrated!  Tonight will be more pleasant with clear skies and it will not be as muggy.  Lows north of the lake will be nice as they fall to the upper 60s.  However, it will be much warmer south of the lake with lows in the  70s . We will have more sunny weather on Wednesday and Thursday as the area of high pressure remains over us.  It will stay less humid too, but we remain hot with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s.  The weather will slowly start to change on Friday as the area of high pressure moves east of Louisiana.  This will bring back southerly w...

Hurricane Ivan made landfall 12 years ago today at 1:50 AM just west of Gulf Shores, AL as a Category 3 Hurricane.  Winds were sustained at 120 mph at landfall.  There was significant damage, and some say it was worse than Opal (1995) and Frederic (1979).  Damage was estimated to be near $14 Billion.  There were 8 deaths in the Western Florida Panhandle directly related to Ivan.  Ivan was the first hurricane I covered when I moved to Baton Rouge. I was sent to Mobile to cover the storm Live for WBRZ.  My crew and I worked continuously for over 24 hours straight to bring Baton Rougians the latest information about the storm and the places they go to vacation each year.  I remember when the western eye wall moved over us.  Winds were sustained around 100 mph with higher gusts.  I could lean backwards in the wind and not fall down! It was just incredible.   Once the storm moved to the north, we ventured out to cover the devastatio...

Today's Forecast: A weak area of low pressure remains over the Western Gulf of Mexico. It is slowly moving to the NW toward Texas.  Combine that low with an area of high pressure over the Eastern U.S., and we will continue to have plenty of Gulf Moisture streaming over SE Louisiana today through the weekend.   This will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop today.  Some of the rain will be heavy at times, and it could cause some street flooding.  Due to the rain and cloud cover, we will not be as hot with highs only around 90 today.  Tonight will be partly cloudy and muggy with a few showers. Lows will be in the 70s north and 80 south. Weekend Forecast: As mentioned above, we will continue to see scattered storms all weekend, but it will not be a total washout.  However, if you are headed to any of the college football games, plan on rain for tailgating, but most of it will end by kickoff.  Highs each day will be only around 90, a...

Forecast Details: There is a weak low in the Western Gulf, south of LA, but is not expected to develop as it moves towards TX.  At the same time, there is an area of high pressure located over Texas. This will send a weak disturbances across LA today and Friday. Combine that with the Gulf Low, and there is tropical moisture in place that will keep scattered showers and storms in the forecast. Some heavy rain will be possible. Today and Friday will be mostly cloudy and hot with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the lower 90s.  Tonight will become partly cloudy and muggy with a slight chance for a few showers - mainly along the coast. Lows will be in the  70s . Weekend Outlook: The weekend looks to be a little soggy with more scattered storms each day as the disturbances move around the high over us. Some heavy rain is possible.  Highs will be in the lower 90s and lows will be in the  70s . Football Forecast: Most of the scatter...

Today's Outlook: An area of high pressure will continue to sit over the Southeast U.S. today and Friday.  This will keep some drier air over us, and that is even lowering the humidity a tad too. It will also limit the amount of rain we see to only stray showers.  However, there is an upper-level low in the Central Gulf of Mexico that is slowly moving to the west. This will not form into anything, but it will set off some coastal showers that could move inland.  Therefore, expect partly cloudy skies with only stray showers today. Highs will be in the lower 90s, and it will feel like 95-100.   Tonight will be mostly clear and not as muggy with lows around 70 north and upper 70s south each day. Looks like there will be one more refreshing night on the Northshore before the muggy weather returns. Weekend Forecast: The weekend will see an increase in the moisture and humidity as a tropical wave moves across the Gulf and a cold front stalls just north of New Orleans...

Hermine is becoming better organized and and you can see this on the Visible satellite with storms now wrapping around the center.  This will allow it to continue to get stronger even through it is going through some stronger wind shear and dry air to its west.  However, it is moving over very warm water in the upper 80s and that is helping to make it stronger.  Hurricane Hunters have been flying into Hermine this morning and have found flight level winds around 75-78 mph which translates into surface winds around 65 mph.  This makes it a strong tropical storm. Hermine is expected to become a hurricane later today and stay a hurricane through landfall tonight.  Right now, it looks to just become a minimal hurricane with winds around 75 mph.  The intensity forecast models are showing it becoming a hurricane as well.  Hurricane Warnings are in place for part of the Florida Panhandle.  Right now, landfall is expected to be overnight between 1-3 ...