Skip to main content

Matthew now a Category 3 hurricane in the Caribbean

Matthew rapidly intensified overnight in the Central Caribbean. Winds are now 115 mph and it is
forecast maintain this strength for the next few days.  It is battling some wind shear, but that hasn't weakened the storm.

There is a ridge of high pressure to the north of Matthew that is steering it to the west to WSW for the next day or so with a slower forward speed.  Then the ridge will weaken over the Atlantic, and a trough of low pressure will move over the Gulf of Mexico and Eastern U.S. This will cause Matthew to turn to the north, and head toward Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba.  However, there is some disagreement with the forecast models as to where and when it will turn to the north.  The ECMWF (Euro) and the UKMET show it more to the east and the GFS and other show it a little more to the west. The NHC has taken a middle of the road approach to the model spread.  This shows it moving just east of Jamaica early Monday Morning and over Eastern Cuba early Tuesday Morning. Then it will move over the Bahamas.

At the same time, the wind shear is forecast to be weaker and it will be moving over very warm water.  This will allow Matthew its major hurricane or Cat. 3 status with 115 mph winds as it moves by Jamaica and makes a landfall over Eastern Cuba next week.

Now the question is how fast will Matthew be moving, and where will it go once it emerges off Cuba.  The forecast models are not in agreement at this time. The latest trend seen in the spaghetti plots show that the hurricane will likely move to the north and be east of Florida. Then continue northward toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina and then turn out to sea.  However, since there is a lot of uncertainty, there is little confidence in the extended forecast.

I can't rule out Matthew impacting the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, but it is looking less likely at this time. One great thing we have going for us is that another cold front is forecast to move through late next week, and IF Matthew would head toward the Gulf, the front would keep Matthew in the Eastern Gulf.  Again, I can't totally dismiss the Gulf yet, but it is looking less likely of that happening!  Once it makes the northward turn, then we will have a better feel of where it will be going.

Needless to say, we will still keep a close eye on the evolution of the hurricane.  Stay tuned for updates. -Dave

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Major Snowstorm Headed To Northeast US Tomorrow

For all of my friends and family that live in the Northeast US...here is my latest analysis of the winter storm heading your way on Friday into Saturday: The same area of low pressure that brought the heavy rain and thunderstorms to Louisiana last night and this morning will be moving up the East Coast on Friday.  It will get much stronger and become a  Nor' Easter that will impact all the major cities from Philly to NYC to Boston as well as inland areas. Delmarva to NJ Coastal Areas :  Winter Storm Warning in effect from Friday AM until Saturday AM!  It looks like it will start out as a brief period of snow along the coast in the morning then change into a windy rain during the day.  Then go to a heavy snow late Friday into Saturday Morning.  Snow accumulations of 4-8" are possible.  Some minor ice accumulations are possible too. Winds will be sustained around 30+ mph and coastal erosion will be possible too. NE PA : Winter Storm Warning from 10...

The Unseasonably Cool Weather Continues

Short Term Forecast :  It is a very cold morning across the Capital City with clear skies and temperatures in the 30s.  A light freeze is expected!  I hope that you brought in your plants last night.  Take that jacket with you this morning. An area of high pressure remains over the Southeast U.S. today.  This will keep us sunny and with the northwest winds over us, we will stay cool.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Another freeze is expected tonight for the Baton Rouge area.  We will be clear with calm winds and very good radiational cooling.  Low temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.  The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor from 2 AM to 8 AM Wednesday Morning.  The freeze could last 2 to 6+ hours and that would be long enough to kill any vegetation.  Make sure you bring in your plants or at least cover them tonight!  Bundle ...

Today Is The 5th Anniversary of Hurricane Gustav

Early in the morning on September 1, 2008, Labor Day, Hurricane Gustav made landfall near Cocodrie, LA.  It was a strong category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds.  At one point, right before Gustav made landfall over Western Cuba, winds were as high as 150 mph (Category 4).  It did weaken as it crossed Cuba, but did regain strength as it sat in the middle of the Gulf as it became a Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph.  This storm became the worst one ever to impact Baton Rouge, LA.  Sustained winds around 70 mph with a 91 mph wind gust was reported at Baton Rouge Metro Airport, 108 and 117 mph wind gusts were reported in Houma, LA.  That caused significant damage and, at one point, the entire city of Baton Rouge was without power. Hurricane Gustav moved slowly inland and the eastern-edge of the eye wall moved along the Mississippi River into Baton Rouge.  It continued northward through West Feliciana & Pointe Coupee Parishes.  The worst...