Skip to main content

Invest 97 is getting better organized as it nears the Caribbean

Invest 97 is getting better organized in the Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a high chance of developing in the next few days.  It is also quickly moving to the west toward the Caribbean Sea. It does not have a closed circulation, but that could change soon.  It has been battling some wind shear, but it is forecast to relax and that will give it a chance to become even more organized. Therefore, it could become a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next 24 hours.
Right now, it looks like it could move into the Eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek, but the forecast models are not agreeing on what route it will take.  It could take a southerly route and stay close to the coast of South America according to the European forecast model. This nearness to land, as well as strong upper winds in that part of the Caribbean Sea, may force the system to weaken a little. However, it could stay just a little farther north and strengthen into possibly a hurricane according to the GFS model.  Until we actually have a formed system, and the Hurricane Hunters fly into it, we will not have much data going into the models.  The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into it later today.  
The latest trend the forecast models show is that the system will move across the Caribbean and then be drawn north over Cuba and Haiti.  Then it could possible continue moving northward into the western Atlantic just east of the U.S. East Coast.  However, it is still a long way out, and a lot could change. If you are planning a trip to the Caribbean, you may want to have a backup plan! 
Right now, it is no direct threat to Louisiana, but it is still a long way out.  We will continue to track it. Stay tuned for updates here and on my Twitter and Facebook pages. -Dave

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Major Snowstorm Headed To Northeast US Tomorrow

For all of my friends and family that live in the Northeast US...here is my latest analysis of the winter storm heading your way on Friday into Saturday: The same area of low pressure that brought the heavy rain and thunderstorms to Louisiana last night and this morning will be moving up the East Coast on Friday.  It will get much stronger and become a  Nor' Easter that will impact all the major cities from Philly to NYC to Boston as well as inland areas. Delmarva to NJ Coastal Areas :  Winter Storm Warning in effect from Friday AM until Saturday AM!  It looks like it will start out as a brief period of snow along the coast in the morning then change into a windy rain during the day.  Then go to a heavy snow late Friday into Saturday Morning.  Snow accumulations of 4-8" are possible.  Some minor ice accumulations are possible too. Winds will be sustained around 30+ mph and coastal erosion will be possible too. NE PA : Winter Storm Warning from 10...

The Unseasonably Cool Weather Continues

Short Term Forecast :  It is a very cold morning across the Capital City with clear skies and temperatures in the 30s.  A light freeze is expected!  I hope that you brought in your plants last night.  Take that jacket with you this morning. An area of high pressure remains over the Southeast U.S. today.  This will keep us sunny and with the northwest winds over us, we will stay cool.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Another freeze is expected tonight for the Baton Rouge area.  We will be clear with calm winds and very good radiational cooling.  Low temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.  The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor from 2 AM to 8 AM Wednesday Morning.  The freeze could last 2 to 6+ hours and that would be long enough to kill any vegetation.  Make sure you bring in your plants or at least cover them tonight!  Bundle ...

Today Is The 5th Anniversary of Hurricane Gustav

Early in the morning on September 1, 2008, Labor Day, Hurricane Gustav made landfall near Cocodrie, LA.  It was a strong category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds.  At one point, right before Gustav made landfall over Western Cuba, winds were as high as 150 mph (Category 4).  It did weaken as it crossed Cuba, but did regain strength as it sat in the middle of the Gulf as it became a Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph.  This storm became the worst one ever to impact Baton Rouge, LA.  Sustained winds around 70 mph with a 91 mph wind gust was reported at Baton Rouge Metro Airport, 108 and 117 mph wind gusts were reported in Houma, LA.  That caused significant damage and, at one point, the entire city of Baton Rouge was without power. Hurricane Gustav moved slowly inland and the eastern-edge of the eye wall moved along the Mississippi River into Baton Rouge.  It continued northward through West Feliciana & Pointe Coupee Parishes.  The worst...