Skip to main content

Watching Invest 99 closely as it gets better organized in the Caribbean

I'm still keeping a close eye on how Invest 99 develops. Hurricane Hunters find that #Invest99 still lacks a well-defined circulation, but it's producing tropical-storm force winds in squalls over the Northern Leeward Islands. However, this system could become a tropical storm or tropical depression at any time during the next couple of days. Conditions could become more favorable for development when the system is near the Bahamas by the weekend. At the moment it is a broad (large) area of low pressure. If there is evidence that it does develop a closed low, then we could have a tropical depression or storm later today or Thursday.  
It is currently going through some dry air and wind shear, so the conditions are not very favorable for significant development over the next couple of days.  Right now, the bulk of the thunderstorms are not wrapping around anything.  They are getting blown off to the SE.  However, in the next few days the system will move out of the dry air and wind shear as it moves NW into the Bahamas.  

 Please know that it is very difficult to forecast developing tropical systems.  When you take a look at the latest forecast model plots, take them with a grain of salt.  Until this broad area of low pressure forms into something, the models will only have limited data.  Every time the Hurricane Hunters fly into it, all of the new data will get ingested into the model runs.  This will give them better accuracy on where the storm could go.  
Now there have been a number of social media posts showing a storm in the Gulf of Mexico next week.  While one main model, the European (ECMWF) is showing that, many other models are not.  The Euro continues to show a tropical system in the Gulf, but it can't decide on where it may make landfall.  The GFS has shown possible landfalls on either side of the Florida Peninsula.  Below are images of the forecast models for 1 PM next Wednesday, August 31. You can clearly see the two models DO NOT agree on where Invest 99, or what is develops into, will go.

Euro 8/24/16 0Z Run: Forecast time: 1 PM Wednesday, August 31



GFS 12Z 8/24/16 Run: Forecast time: 1 PM Wednesday, August 31

Could this move across South Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico? Yes. But, it is not a certainty. If it does, it could wind up anywhere from Brownsville, TX to Panama City Beach by the middle of next week. Needless to say, we will continue to watch it closely.  By the way...the last hurricane to make landfall in the United States was Hurricane Arthur on July 4, 2014.  
What you should do now: 
  • Realize it is the end of August, and it is very common for tropical systems to form this time of year.
  • Keep an eye on Invest 99 over the next few days. 
  • Watch my updates on WWL-TV each day.  
  • Stay calm and have a plan in case something comes our way.
  • Remember, the Baton Rouge area is going to be out of commission for evacuation purposes due to the flooding.  Many of the hotels are already full.
  • Please know that there is A LOT of uncertainty in the forecast, and expect plenty of changes.
Here is my latest video forecast: 

Noon Tropical Update


 Again, it is not the time to get overly excited about this, but just stay weather aware. It is the end of August, and historically we are in the Prime for tropical systems to come toward Louisiana.  -Dave

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Comparison between Hurricane Matthew's possible forecast track loop vs Hurricane Betsy's

Some of you have been calling to say that Matthew's forecast to do a loop in the Atlantic Ocean off the SE U.S. is the same as what Hurricane Betsy did back in 1965. Well...that is not true. Betsy formed on August 27, 1965 just off the Leeward Islands. It quickly became a tropical storm on the same day, and then became a hurricane on August 29.  It made a few loops in its track with one north of Puerto Rico and a second north of the Bahamas.  There is a strong area of high pressure that was preventing Betsy from moving to the north, and that is what caused it to loop.  After the second loop, it then moved SW across the Bahamas, then turned west to move over far South Florida and then into the Gulf.  It eventually turned to the NW and quickly tracked right to New Orleans where it made landfall as a major hurricane on September 9th. Hurricane Matthew formed in the Atlantic east of the Leeward Islands as a tropical storm on September 28. It quickly moved west into t...
1 comment
Read more

The Unseasonably Cool Weather Continues

Short Term Forecast :  It is a very cold morning across the Capital City with clear skies and temperatures in the 30s.  A light freeze is expected!  I hope that you brought in your plants last night.  Take that jacket with you this morning. An area of high pressure remains over the Southeast U.S. today.  This will keep us sunny and with the northwest winds over us, we will stay cool.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Another freeze is expected tonight for the Baton Rouge area.  We will be clear with calm winds and very good radiational cooling.  Low temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.  The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor from 2 AM to 8 AM Wednesday Morning.  The freeze could last 2 to 6+ hours and that would be long enough to kill any vegetation.  Make sure you bring in your plants or at least cover them tonight!  Bundle ...
34 comments
Read more

Flash Flood Watch now until Thursday Evening for WBRZ Viewing Area

The NWS in Slidell, LA has issued a  Flash Flood Watch for all of the WBRZ Viewing Area starting now and continuing until Thursday Evening. Rain has been falling for the last few hours and we have already picked up over 1.30" in Baton Rouge.  This is WAY more than the forecast models were predicting for this time.  The area of low pressure continues to develop over South Texas and a warm front will move up from the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday Morning.  This will spread widespread rain and a few thunderstorms over Southern Louisiana all night and into Wednesday.  Then it looks like we will taper off the rain to just scattered showers during the day on Wednesday. On Wednesday Night, a cold front will move out of Texas into Louisiana.  As this happens, a squall line of thunderstorms is expected to move ahead of it and through Baton Rouge on Thursday Morning.  Some of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds and a few tornadoes. ...
61 comments
Read more