Skip to main content

Monday Morning Tropical Depression 9 Update

Tropical Depression 9 is looking very ragged this morning with 35 mph winds and it is moving to the W at 9 mph.  Looking at the latest satellite and radar data, the bulk of the clouds and rain are SE of the center of circulation. This is due to wind shear blowing the storms in that direction.  The depression is still ingesting some dry air too.  The wind shear is coming from an upper-level low that is sitting over the NW Gulf just off the Texas Coast. This is the same upper-level low that brought us some rain over the weekend. These factors are preventing TD 9 from getting stronger - for now.  



The forecast models are showing TD 9 moving to the WNW slowly today without getting any stronger.  Then on Tuesday, it will move over more warm water in the upper 80s, and the wind shear is expected to relax a little as the upper-level low moves into Texas.  At this time, TD 9 is expected to get a tad stronger and become a tropical storm (either Hermine or Ian depending if TD 8 becomes a storm quicker). 


While it becomes a tropical storm, a trough of low pressure will be coming down/across the Eastern U.S. and it will send a backdoor cold front toward the Deep South.  This will cause the system to be pulled to the north in the Central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Then on Thursday, the cold front will be closer to the coast and that will help to deflect the system to the NE away from Louisiana.  It is likely it will make a landfall sometime Thursday Evening or Night anywhere between the FL Panhandle to Tampa as a weak tropical storm.  It will cross over Florida and exit near Jacksonville, and head into the Atlantic. 


Now...a few things to consider.  TD 9 will be moving over very warm waters, and if the wind shear would relax a little sooner, it could become a little stronger.  However, it is still forecast to be pulled to the north and then northeast with the trough and cold front. 

There are still some uncertainties, so expect some changes with the forecast and intensity this week.  I would not say Louisiana is out of the woods yet, but it is looking more like a Florida storm vs. Louisiana at this point.  Don't let your guard down yet, but don't be worried about this either.  You should already be prepared for a storm by now, so make sure your plan is in place just in case.  

 Please stay tuned to my updates here, on Facebook, Twitter and WWL-TV. Be weather aware! -Dave

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Major Snowstorm Headed To Northeast US Tomorrow

For all of my friends and family that live in the Northeast US...here is my latest analysis of the winter storm heading your way on Friday into Saturday: The same area of low pressure that brought the heavy rain and thunderstorms to Louisiana last night and this morning will be moving up the East Coast on Friday.  It will get much stronger and become a  Nor' Easter that will impact all the major cities from Philly to NYC to Boston as well as inland areas. Delmarva to NJ Coastal Areas :  Winter Storm Warning in effect from Friday AM until Saturday AM!  It looks like it will start out as a brief period of snow along the coast in the morning then change into a windy rain during the day.  Then go to a heavy snow late Friday into Saturday Morning.  Snow accumulations of 4-8" are possible.  Some minor ice accumulations are possible too. Winds will be sustained around 30+ mph and coastal erosion will be possible too. NE PA : Winter Storm Warning from 10...
4 comments
Read more

The Unseasonably Cool Weather Continues

Short Term Forecast :  It is a very cold morning across the Capital City with clear skies and temperatures in the 30s.  A light freeze is expected!  I hope that you brought in your plants last night.  Take that jacket with you this morning. An area of high pressure remains over the Southeast U.S. today.  This will keep us sunny and with the northwest winds over us, we will stay cool.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Another freeze is expected tonight for the Baton Rouge area.  We will be clear with calm winds and very good radiational cooling.  Low temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.  The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor from 2 AM to 8 AM Wednesday Morning.  The freeze could last 2 to 6+ hours and that would be long enough to kill any vegetation.  Make sure you bring in your plants or at least cover them tonight!  Bundle ...
34 comments
Read more

Today Is The 5th Anniversary of Hurricane Gustav

Early in the morning on September 1, 2008, Labor Day, Hurricane Gustav made landfall near Cocodrie, LA.  It was a strong category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds.  At one point, right before Gustav made landfall over Western Cuba, winds were as high as 150 mph (Category 4).  It did weaken as it crossed Cuba, but did regain strength as it sat in the middle of the Gulf as it became a Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph.  This storm became the worst one ever to impact Baton Rouge, LA.  Sustained winds around 70 mph with a 91 mph wind gust was reported at Baton Rouge Metro Airport, 108 and 117 mph wind gusts were reported in Houma, LA.  That caused significant damage and, at one point, the entire city of Baton Rouge was without power. Hurricane Gustav moved slowly inland and the eastern-edge of the eye wall moved along the Mississippi River into Baton Rouge.  It continued northward through West Feliciana & Pointe Coupee Parishes.  The worst...
1 comment
Read more