Skip to main content

Invest 99 remains poorly organized as is moves into the Bahamas

We are closely watching the slow development of Invest 99.  Hurricane Hunters flew into it this morning, and good news...it is still not developed!  Actually, it looks worse than it did 24 hours ago.  It is a broad area of low pressure - meaning a large area of circulation, and it continues to lack a well-defined center. The system remains disorganized as it sits north of the Island of Hispaniola. 

Most of the storms are now absent from the system.  The nearest ones are over the Dominican Republic and Haiti, not near the center of lowest pressure thanks to moderate wind shear and dry air aloft. You need the storms to be close to and around the center for it to develop. If it can get better organized, there is a chance it could become a tropical depression, but it does not look like that will happen for at least a few days as it quickly moves to the WNW at 21 mph.  Another thing you typically need for development is for the movement to be less than 18 mph - something it doesn't have right now.  Hurricane Hunters will fly into it again later today, so we will get some more data from it into the models.

Forecast models are still not agreeing with how strong it will be or where it will go.  There is a very wide spread in the models.  The eastern side of the models show it could move NW and stay east of Florida without ever making landfall. The western spread show it could go across the Gulf of Mexico and make a landfall over South Texas or Mexico. This morning, the GFS shows little development of the system, and has it moving up the West Coast of Florida.  The Euro (ECMWF) still develops it into a possible hurricane, but now has it over the West Coast of Florida. (See images below) Yesterday, the Euro had it over Western Louisiana. There is an upper-level area of high pressure over the Eastern U.S., and this is what will steer Invest 99.  If it is weak, then it would pull the system more to the north.  If it is weak, then it would steer it more to the NW and West. We will also have to watch this to see how strong it gets.  There is a chance that if this system can get out of the dry air and wind shear over the Bahamas, it could develop into something this weekend.  Also, if it could make it into the Gulf, there is a chance it could try to develop into something there since conditions are more favorable for development. Again, we will have to wait and see. 
0Z 8/25/16 ECMWF, forecast time 1 AM Wednesday, Aug. 31

6Z 8/25/16 GFS, forecast time 1 AM Wednesday, Aug. 31
Clearly, there are A LOT of uncertainties with this system, and it is too early to speculate on what specific impacts might occur from the Bahamas, Florida or Gulf of Mexico. Right now, it looks like this could be at least a heavy rain maker for Hispaniola, Bahamas and Florida regardless if it develops.
Here is my Noon Weathercast Update on Invest 99:
http://www.wwltv.com/weather/video-forecast/noon-8-25-pinpoint-forecast/308221943

What you should do now: 
  • Realize it is the end of August, and it's very common for tropical systems to form this time of year.
  • Keep an eye on Invest 99 over the next few days. 
  • Watch my updates on WWL-TV each day.  
  • Stay calm and have a plan in case something comes our way.
  • Remember, the Baton Rouge area is going to be out of commission for evacuation purposes due to the flooding.  Many of the hotels are already full.
  • Please know that there is A LOT of uncertainty in the forecast, and expect plenty of daily changes.

It is not the time to get overly excited about this, but just stay weather aware. It is the end of August, and historically we are in the Prime for tropical systems to come toward Louisiana.  Stay tuned for updates later today. -Dave

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Major Snowstorm Headed To Northeast US Tomorrow

For all of my friends and family that live in the Northeast US...here is my latest analysis of the winter storm heading your way on Friday into Saturday: The same area of low pressure that brought the heavy rain and thunderstorms to Louisiana last night and this morning will be moving up the East Coast on Friday.  It will get much stronger and become a  Nor' Easter that will impact all the major cities from Philly to NYC to Boston as well as inland areas. Delmarva to NJ Coastal Areas :  Winter Storm Warning in effect from Friday AM until Saturday AM!  It looks like it will start out as a brief period of snow along the coast in the morning then change into a windy rain during the day.  Then go to a heavy snow late Friday into Saturday Morning.  Snow accumulations of 4-8" are possible.  Some minor ice accumulations are possible too. Winds will be sustained around 30+ mph and coastal erosion will be possible too. NE PA : Winter Storm Warning from 10...
4 comments
Read more

The Unseasonably Cool Weather Continues

Short Term Forecast :  It is a very cold morning across the Capital City with clear skies and temperatures in the 30s.  A light freeze is expected!  I hope that you brought in your plants last night.  Take that jacket with you this morning. An area of high pressure remains over the Southeast U.S. today.  This will keep us sunny and with the northwest winds over us, we will stay cool.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Another freeze is expected tonight for the Baton Rouge area.  We will be clear with calm winds and very good radiational cooling.  Low temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.  The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor from 2 AM to 8 AM Wednesday Morning.  The freeze could last 2 to 6+ hours and that would be long enough to kill any vegetation.  Make sure you bring in your plants or at least cover them tonight!  Bundle ...
34 comments
Read more

Today Is The 5th Anniversary of Hurricane Gustav

Early in the morning on September 1, 2008, Labor Day, Hurricane Gustav made landfall near Cocodrie, LA.  It was a strong category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds.  At one point, right before Gustav made landfall over Western Cuba, winds were as high as 150 mph (Category 4).  It did weaken as it crossed Cuba, but did regain strength as it sat in the middle of the Gulf as it became a Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph.  This storm became the worst one ever to impact Baton Rouge, LA.  Sustained winds around 70 mph with a 91 mph wind gust was reported at Baton Rouge Metro Airport, 108 and 117 mph wind gusts were reported in Houma, LA.  That caused significant damage and, at one point, the entire city of Baton Rouge was without power. Hurricane Gustav moved slowly inland and the eastern-edge of the eye wall moved along the Mississippi River into Baton Rouge.  It continued northward through West Feliciana & Pointe Coupee Parishes.  The worst...
1 comment
Read more