Skip to main content

My latest thoughts on Tropical Storm Erika

10 AM ‪#‎Erika‬ Update:
Winds: 45 mph
Moving: W @ 16 mph
Pressure: 1006 mb
Storm remains unorganized & weak

Erika is not well organized at this time as it is in an unfavorable environment for development thanks to dry and and moderate to strong wind shear. Some storms did develop overnight, but they are still to the south and east of the center of circulation. At this time, the center is exposed and the system remains weak. Hurricane Hunters do not indicate any strengthening from their recent flight. The center has apparently reformed farther to the south of previously thought, so the forecast track from NHC had to be adjusted. 
For the next few days, Erika is forecast to move WNW to the south of a mid-level subtropical ridge. By the weekend as the tropical cyclone nears the western edge of the ridge, it is expected to turn to the NW and NNW. However, there is uncertainty as to how quickly and how sharp this turn will will be. The future forecast track of Erika also depends on its intensity. If Erika is a weaker system, then it is likely to move more to the west across the Caribbean. If it is a stronger storm, then it will track more to the east or north.
The forecast models are in agreement for the next 24-48 hours that Erika will remain weak and will track to the WNW across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The NHC is then forecasting for Erika to get stronger and turn more to the north off the East Coast of Florida. It is also worth noting that some of the models want to significantly strengthen Erika this weekend over the Bahamas and have hinted that it could become a Cat. 2+ hurricane off the East Coast of Florida by early next week. 
Due to the uncertainties, it is too early to say if Erika will make it into the Gulf of Mexico. However, most trends as of now say that it will not, but we can't rely on that. Please stay tuned to my updates for more info and watch WWL-TV for my updates too. -Dave

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Major Snowstorm Headed To Northeast US Tomorrow

For all of my friends and family that live in the Northeast US...here is my latest analysis of the winter storm heading your way on Friday into Saturday: The same area of low pressure that brought the heavy rain and thunderstorms to Louisiana last night and this morning will be moving up the East Coast on Friday.  It will get much stronger and become a  Nor' Easter that will impact all the major cities from Philly to NYC to Boston as well as inland areas. Delmarva to NJ Coastal Areas :  Winter Storm Warning in effect from Friday AM until Saturday AM!  It looks like it will start out as a brief period of snow along the coast in the morning then change into a windy rain during the day.  Then go to a heavy snow late Friday into Saturday Morning.  Snow accumulations of 4-8" are possible.  Some minor ice accumulations are possible too. Winds will be sustained around 30+ mph and coastal erosion will be possible too. NE PA : Winter Storm Warning from 10...
4 comments
Read more

The Unseasonably Cool Weather Continues

Short Term Forecast :  It is a very cold morning across the Capital City with clear skies and temperatures in the 30s.  A light freeze is expected!  I hope that you brought in your plants last night.  Take that jacket with you this morning. An area of high pressure remains over the Southeast U.S. today.  This will keep us sunny and with the northwest winds over us, we will stay cool.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Another freeze is expected tonight for the Baton Rouge area.  We will be clear with calm winds and very good radiational cooling.  Low temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.  The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor from 2 AM to 8 AM Wednesday Morning.  The freeze could last 2 to 6+ hours and that would be long enough to kill any vegetation.  Make sure you bring in your plants or at least cover them tonight!  Bundle ...
34 comments
Read more

Today Is The 5th Anniversary of Hurricane Gustav

Early in the morning on September 1, 2008, Labor Day, Hurricane Gustav made landfall near Cocodrie, LA.  It was a strong category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds.  At one point, right before Gustav made landfall over Western Cuba, winds were as high as 150 mph (Category 4).  It did weaken as it crossed Cuba, but did regain strength as it sat in the middle of the Gulf as it became a Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph.  This storm became the worst one ever to impact Baton Rouge, LA.  Sustained winds around 70 mph with a 91 mph wind gust was reported at Baton Rouge Metro Airport, 108 and 117 mph wind gusts were reported in Houma, LA.  That caused significant damage and, at one point, the entire city of Baton Rouge was without power. Hurricane Gustav moved slowly inland and the eastern-edge of the eye wall moved along the Mississippi River into Baton Rouge.  It continued northward through West Feliciana & Pointe Coupee Parishes.  The worst...
1 comment
Read more