Skip to main content

Drs. Klotzbach and Gray Issue Their Predictions for the 2015 Hurricane Season

Each year in April, a group of forecasters from Colorado State University lead by Dr. Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray.  They have been doing this for decades and this gives us an idea of how the hurricane season could play out.  Yes, we take this as a grain of salt because it could easily change.  However, it still helps to have a guide.

They look at a number of things from global atmospheric conditions, oceanic conditions, climate history and weather patterns to put together a forecast.  After all of their analysis, they have concluded that we will have a below average 2015 Hurricane Season.


The main factors for fewer storms this season is the likelihood for a moderate El Nino to form and cool Atlantic Ocean water temperatures.  When you have an El Nino you typically have more wind shear across the Globe and that makes it hard for storms to develop and persist.  Yes, it is still possible for some to form and become hurricanes, but you would not have as many if an El Nino didn't exist.  The cool water temperatures are also a problem when a storm tries to form.  You need minimum water temperatures to be around 80° to maintain a storm.  Anything less than that makes it hard for the storm to thrive.


Again, take this as a grain of salt,but it would be nice not to have many storms.  Remember, it only takes one to make an active season.  1992 was not an active season, but we had Hurricane Andrew.  1957 was not an active season, but we had Hurricane Audrey - the earliest major hurricane ever to make landfall in the U.S.

We are still less than 2 months away from the start of hurricane season (June 1st).  Now is the time to get prepared.  Check your hurricane kits and refresh them with batteries, water, supplies, etc. now before you need the supplies and it is too late!

Make sure you keep it tuned to WWL-TV this hurricane season for daily updates and more!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Major Snowstorm Headed To Northeast US Tomorrow

For all of my friends and family that live in the Northeast US...here is my latest analysis of the winter storm heading your way on Friday into Saturday: The same area of low pressure that brought the heavy rain and thunderstorms to Louisiana last night and this morning will be moving up the East Coast on Friday.  It will get much stronger and become a  Nor' Easter that will impact all the major cities from Philly to NYC to Boston as well as inland areas. Delmarva to NJ Coastal Areas :  Winter Storm Warning in effect from Friday AM until Saturday AM!  It looks like it will start out as a brief period of snow along the coast in the morning then change into a windy rain during the day.  Then go to a heavy snow late Friday into Saturday Morning.  Snow accumulations of 4-8" are possible.  Some minor ice accumulations are possible too. Winds will be sustained around 30+ mph and coastal erosion will be possible too. NE PA : Winter Storm Warning from 10...

The Unseasonably Cool Weather Continues

Short Term Forecast :  It is a very cold morning across the Capital City with clear skies and temperatures in the 30s.  A light freeze is expected!  I hope that you brought in your plants last night.  Take that jacket with you this morning. An area of high pressure remains over the Southeast U.S. today.  This will keep us sunny and with the northwest winds over us, we will stay cool.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Another freeze is expected tonight for the Baton Rouge area.  We will be clear with calm winds and very good radiational cooling.  Low temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.  The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor from 2 AM to 8 AM Wednesday Morning.  The freeze could last 2 to 6+ hours and that would be long enough to kill any vegetation.  Make sure you bring in your plants or at least cover them tonight!  Bundle ...

Today Is The 5th Anniversary of Hurricane Gustav

Early in the morning on September 1, 2008, Labor Day, Hurricane Gustav made landfall near Cocodrie, LA.  It was a strong category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds.  At one point, right before Gustav made landfall over Western Cuba, winds were as high as 150 mph (Category 4).  It did weaken as it crossed Cuba, but did regain strength as it sat in the middle of the Gulf as it became a Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph.  This storm became the worst one ever to impact Baton Rouge, LA.  Sustained winds around 70 mph with a 91 mph wind gust was reported at Baton Rouge Metro Airport, 108 and 117 mph wind gusts were reported in Houma, LA.  That caused significant damage and, at one point, the entire city of Baton Rouge was without power. Hurricane Gustav moved slowly inland and the eastern-edge of the eye wall moved along the Mississippi River into Baton Rouge.  It continued northward through West Feliciana & Pointe Coupee Parishes.  The worst...