The Storm Prediction Center has much of the WBRZ Viewing area in a Slight Risk for severe weather today, but some areas just north of Baton Rouge are in a Moderate Risk (a greater chance of seeing severe weather). Fortunately, Baton Rouge will not see the worst of the severe weather - that will be in North Louisiana and through much of Mississippi into Tennessee.
A trough of low pressure is moving across the Central U.S. and there is a strengthening area of low pressure in the base of that trough. A cold front is also attached to that low. As this low moves to the east it will go over an area of very unstable air. This is thanks to a very unseasonably warm and humid air mass and a strong low to mid-level jet stream. You can see the low-level jet by looking at the clouds - they are just zipping by! This also means it will be very windy at the surface. Winds will be out of the south at 25 mph with higher gusts to 35 mph - and that is outside of any storms. The NWS has issued a Wind Advisory until 6 PM today for all Southeast Louisiana. These winds will change direction as they go up...from the south at the surface and out of the west around 30-40,000 feet. This is called veering.
As the low and cold front move into the unstable air, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop. Any storms that pop-up ahead of the front could start to rotate because of the veering winds, and they would become supercells. These are the type of storms that could produce tornadoes and I will be watching any that pop-up very closely. There is already a Tornado Watch for Western LA, Eastern TX and Southern AR. It is very likely that we will have a Tornado Watch issued for us later today into the overnight hours.
As we get into the evening hours, a squall line of thunderstorms will be moving out of Texas and into Louisiana. Looking at the latest forecast models, it seems like we will see that line getting into Baton Rouge later this evening. It will likely be a broken line of storms. These storms could also be strong to severe, but the tornado threat will be lower. Instead, we will have a better chance of some damaging straight-line winds.
Once the squall line passes us, the threat for strong to severe storms will be over. We will have some lingering showers overnight into Sunday Morning. The front is forecast to stall along the coast on Sunday and that will keep clouds with spotty showers over Baton Rouge during the day. It will still be warm since the colder air will not arrive until Sunday Night.
So...what does all of this mean?!? Plan to see some scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms popping up during the day. Some of these storms could become strong to severe with damaging winds and possibly a few tornadoes. Otherwise, we will be mostly cloudy, very warm and windy with a possible record high temperature in the lower 80s. Again, the severe weather threat is there today, but it is not a major threat for Baton Rouge. It is important for me to alert you to this so you are aware of what could happen.
Also, make sure you secure any Christmas decorations outside so they don't blow away!
Stay safe & keep it tuned to WBRZ & all of our information outlets on air, on line & on social media. -Dave
A trough of low pressure is moving across the Central U.S. and there is a strengthening area of low pressure in the base of that trough. A cold front is also attached to that low. As this low moves to the east it will go over an area of very unstable air. This is thanks to a very unseasonably warm and humid air mass and a strong low to mid-level jet stream. You can see the low-level jet by looking at the clouds - they are just zipping by! This also means it will be very windy at the surface. Winds will be out of the south at 25 mph with higher gusts to 35 mph - and that is outside of any storms. The NWS has issued a Wind Advisory until 6 PM today for all Southeast Louisiana. These winds will change direction as they go up...from the south at the surface and out of the west around 30-40,000 feet. This is called veering.
As the low and cold front move into the unstable air, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop. Any storms that pop-up ahead of the front could start to rotate because of the veering winds, and they would become supercells. These are the type of storms that could produce tornadoes and I will be watching any that pop-up very closely. There is already a Tornado Watch for Western LA, Eastern TX and Southern AR. It is very likely that we will have a Tornado Watch issued for us later today into the overnight hours.
As we get into the evening hours, a squall line of thunderstorms will be moving out of Texas and into Louisiana. Looking at the latest forecast models, it seems like we will see that line getting into Baton Rouge later this evening. It will likely be a broken line of storms. These storms could also be strong to severe, but the tornado threat will be lower. Instead, we will have a better chance of some damaging straight-line winds.
Once the squall line passes us, the threat for strong to severe storms will be over. We will have some lingering showers overnight into Sunday Morning. The front is forecast to stall along the coast on Sunday and that will keep clouds with spotty showers over Baton Rouge during the day. It will still be warm since the colder air will not arrive until Sunday Night.
So...what does all of this mean?!? Plan to see some scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms popping up during the day. Some of these storms could become strong to severe with damaging winds and possibly a few tornadoes. Otherwise, we will be mostly cloudy, very warm and windy with a possible record high temperature in the lower 80s. Again, the severe weather threat is there today, but it is not a major threat for Baton Rouge. It is important for me to alert you to this so you are aware of what could happen.
Also, make sure you secure any Christmas decorations outside so they don't blow away!
Stay safe & keep it tuned to WBRZ & all of our information outlets on air, on line & on social media. -Dave
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