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Isolated Showers Today, Watching The Tropics

Short Term Forecast:  We have some high clouds streaming over Baton Rouge again this morning and this is making it mostly clear to partly cloudy at times.  It is warm and muggy with temperatures in the 70s.


The ridge of high pressure in the mid to upper-levels that has been sitting over us the last few days will move to the east of Louisiana.  This will allow for some return flow, or southerly winds to come back over the state.  These winds will start to usher in deeper tropical moisture over the city, and that will make it more humid.  When you combine that with daytime heating some isolated showers and storms will pop-up.  However, most of you will stay dry today with a mix of sun and clouds.  High temperatures will be in the lower 90s.

A few clouds will stick around tonight and it will be quite stuffy.  Low temperatures will be in the lower 70s.

Rest of the Week:  The ridge will stay east of Louisiana and that will keep the southerly winds over us for the rest of the week.  The sea breeze will interact with daytime heating on Thursday and that will help to set off isolated showers and storms again.  Highs will be in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s on Thursday Night.

The weather will really start to go downhill on Friday and this weekend thanks to a trough of low pressure that will send a strong cold front toward Louisiana from the northwest. This front will tap into that tropical moisture over us and that will set off scattered to numerous showers and storms over Baton Rouge starting on Friday.  Some of the storms could be strong and have heavy rain.  Highs will only be in the upper 80s.  Friday Night will be quite soggy and it is not looking nice for high school football.  The rain/storms will continue through the evening and into the overnight hours.  Lows will be in the lower 70s.

Weekend Forecast:  The cold front will push through Baton Rouge on Saturday and it will bring quite a bit of rain with it.  This is not looking good for tailgaters for the LSU game.  There may even be some rain for the game itself.  You can expect mostly cloudy skies with scattered to numerous showers and storms.  Some heavy rain will be likely.  Highs will only be in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s on Saturday Night.

The front will stall along the coast on Sunday.  This will still allow us to get a few showers around town with partly cloudy skies.  Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Tropical Outlook:  Tropical Storm Humberto continues to stay alive in the North Atlantic, or about 1050 miles WSW of the Azores.  Winds are 40 mph and the pressure is 1007 mb.  It is moving NNW at 8 mph and will turn to the north by Thursday where it will increase its forward speed.  Humberto will stay out at sea and will become a non-tropical low by the weekend.


Closer to home...I'm watching an area of low pressure (Invest 95L) located over the Yucatan Peninsula.  Showers and storms have become more concentrated near the center of the low.  This system is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche later today.  Conditions are favorable for a tropical depression to form in the next day or two.  The conditions will remain favorable for additional development as the low just meanders over the Bay of Campeche through the weekend.  NHC is giving this system a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days.  The forecast models are all over the place as to where this may go.  Some have it going across the Bay into Mexico, some have it going to Texas, a few toward Louisiana and others toward Florida.  Needless to say, we will have to keep a close eye on the evolution of this low.

Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet.

Stay cool, watch out for a little rain and have a nice day! -Dave

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