Skip to main content

A Rainy Start To The Week, Keeping An Eye On The Tropics

Short Term Forecast:  A cold front is stalled to the northwest of Baton Rouge.  This is allowing for some showers to pop-up this morning with mostly cloudy skies.  Temperatures are around 70.


The front will remain stalled today, and a few disturbances will move along the front.  This will allow us to have scattered showers with a few thunderstorms this afternoon.  Some heavy rain is possible.  High temperatures will be held down thanks to the rain as they only climb into the lower to mid 80s.

The clouds and showers will stick around tonight.  Low temperatures will be in the lower 70s.

Week Ahead:  The front will remain stalled over the area on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Disturbances, and an upper-level low will move along the front, and this will continue to give us scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.  Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s each day.  We will be partly to mostly cloudy at night with a few showers possible.  Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.


The front will dissipate by Thursday and we will not have as much rain.  Expect partly cloudy skies with only isolated afternoon showers and storms popping up on Thursday and Friday with the heating of the day and sea breeze.  Highs will be in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Weekend Forecast:  A very strong cold front will move into the Baton Rouge area on Saturday.  We will have scattered showers and storms popping up during the afternoon and evening.  Highs will be in the mid 80s.  The front will move through town on Saturday Night and we will have scattered to numerous showers and storms.  Some could be strong at times!  Lows will fall to near 60.

Much COOLER weather will arrive on Sunday behind the front.  We will be mostly sunny with highs only around 80.  Sunday Night will be clear and cool with lows in the upper 50s.  Finally a taste of Fall!!

Tropical Outlook:  Tropical Depression 11 is still churning out in the Central Atlantic.  It is located about 1150 miles ESE of Bermuda.  Winds are 35 mph, pressure is 1010 mb and it is moving to the east at 5 mph.  A very slow and erratic movement is expected over the next few days as it remains out at sea.


Lastly, I'm watching a broad area of low pressure (Invest 97L) located over the Central Caribbean.  It remains disorganized as it moves to the NW over the next 2 days.  NHC is giving it a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.  In about 3-5 days, conditions appear more favorable for some development as it moves into the NW Caribbean and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  NHC is giving it a medium chance of development in the next 5 days.  The forecast models are showing a strong cold front sweeping across the Southeast U.S. at the same time this system is forecast to be in the Gulf.  The models are also showing this front picking up this low and moving it to the northeast toward Florida.  Needless to say, I will keep an eye on it.  It is not expected to be anything major at this point.


Take your umbrella and have a nice Monday! -Dave

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Comparison between Hurricane Matthew's possible forecast track loop vs Hurricane Betsy's

Some of you have been calling to say that Matthew's forecast to do a loop in the Atlantic Ocean off the SE U.S. is the same as what Hurricane Betsy did back in 1965. Well...that is not true. Betsy formed on August 27, 1965 just off the Leeward Islands. It quickly became a tropical storm on the same day, and then became a hurricane on August 29.  It made a few loops in its track with one north of Puerto Rico and a second north of the Bahamas.  There is a strong area of high pressure that was preventing Betsy from moving to the north, and that is what caused it to loop.  After the second loop, it then moved SW across the Bahamas, then turned west to move over far South Florida and then into the Gulf.  It eventually turned to the NW and quickly tracked right to New Orleans where it made landfall as a major hurricane on September 9th. Hurricane Matthew formed in the Atlantic east of the Leeward Islands as a tropical storm on September 28. It quickly moved west into t...

The Unseasonably Cool Weather Continues

Short Term Forecast :  It is a very cold morning across the Capital City with clear skies and temperatures in the 30s.  A light freeze is expected!  I hope that you brought in your plants last night.  Take that jacket with you this morning. An area of high pressure remains over the Southeast U.S. today.  This will keep us sunny and with the northwest winds over us, we will stay cool.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Another freeze is expected tonight for the Baton Rouge area.  We will be clear with calm winds and very good radiational cooling.  Low temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.  The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor from 2 AM to 8 AM Wednesday Morning.  The freeze could last 2 to 6+ hours and that would be long enough to kill any vegetation.  Make sure you bring in your plants or at least cover them tonight!  Bundle ...

Flash Flood Watch now until Thursday Evening for WBRZ Viewing Area

The NWS in Slidell, LA has issued a  Flash Flood Watch for all of the WBRZ Viewing Area starting now and continuing until Thursday Evening. Rain has been falling for the last few hours and we have already picked up over 1.30" in Baton Rouge.  This is WAY more than the forecast models were predicting for this time.  The area of low pressure continues to develop over South Texas and a warm front will move up from the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday Morning.  This will spread widespread rain and a few thunderstorms over Southern Louisiana all night and into Wednesday.  Then it looks like we will taper off the rain to just scattered showers during the day on Wednesday. On Wednesday Night, a cold front will move out of Texas into Louisiana.  As this happens, a squall line of thunderstorms is expected to move ahead of it and through Baton Rouge on Thursday Morning.  Some of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds and a few tornadoes. ...