I'm still closely watching the tropical disturbance, Invest 92L, in the Northwest Caribbean/Yucatan Peninsula. It will move across the Yucatan later tonight/tonight, and then it will emerge in the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Once it is in the Gulf there are all sorts of scenarios that are possible. Upper-level winds (wind shear) are forecast to be a little stronger over the Gulf and that could prevent the system from getting very organized.
The forecast models are all over the place with the evolution of this system, but they seem to be taking on a more westward track as of this afternoon. One set still has it moving north toward LA/MS, and the others have it going into Texas or Old Mexico. The trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. and stationary front sitting along the Northern Gulf of Mexico will have an impact on what this system will do. The trough will help to keep some decent wind shear over the Gulf, but it will also help to pull the system northward. If the disturbance can linger over the warm Gulf Waters, and survive some wind shear, then there is a chance it could develop into something. If it moves quickly, then it will have a small window of opportunity to develop before it gets absorbed into the trough or front.
Whatever scenario it takes on, it will still have deep tropical moisture streaming northward toward the Northern Gulf Coast States. This will spread very heavy rain from SE Louisiana to Florida for the weekend. If it does develop into a tropical system, then a possible landfall would also occur this weekend.
There is a high chance, according to the NHC, that this system will become a tropical system in the next 5 days.
Hurricane Hunters were scheduled to investigate this system today, but since it is moving over land, they can't investigate it. They are unable to drop dropsondes since they would fall and hit buildings, people, etc. However, they may investigate it once it goes into the Gulf tomorrow, so we will find out later what they find. Needless to say, this is a wait and see mode as to what it will do.
Be sure to keep it tuned to WBRZ, WBRZ.com, my Facebook and Twitter feeds for additional updates. -Dave
The forecast models are all over the place with the evolution of this system, but they seem to be taking on a more westward track as of this afternoon. One set still has it moving north toward LA/MS, and the others have it going into Texas or Old Mexico. The trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. and stationary front sitting along the Northern Gulf of Mexico will have an impact on what this system will do. The trough will help to keep some decent wind shear over the Gulf, but it will also help to pull the system northward. If the disturbance can linger over the warm Gulf Waters, and survive some wind shear, then there is a chance it could develop into something. If it moves quickly, then it will have a small window of opportunity to develop before it gets absorbed into the trough or front.
There is a high chance, according to the NHC, that this system will become a tropical system in the next 5 days.
Hurricane Hunters were scheduled to investigate this system today, but since it is moving over land, they can't investigate it. They are unable to drop dropsondes since they would fall and hit buildings, people, etc. However, they may investigate it once it goes into the Gulf tomorrow, so we will find out later what they find. Needless to say, this is a wait and see mode as to what it will do.
Be sure to keep it tuned to WBRZ, WBRZ.com, my Facebook and Twitter feeds for additional updates. -Dave
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