Saturday Update on Poorly-Organized Invest 92L

As of this Saturday afternoon, Invest 92L is still very disorganized as it sits in the Southern Gulf of Mexico. There is an area of low pressure and more thunderstorms are developing around the center. However, the low-level circulation is becoming elongated, or being stretched out. This is not good for a system if it wants to develop. Upper-level wind shear is helping to stretch out the disturbance, and they will only be somewhat favorable for development over the next few days. The disturbance is moving to the NW to WNW over the next 2 days and will stay in the Western Gulf of Mexico. The Hurricane Hunters were scheduled to investigate the system today, but their mission was canceled.

The forecast models plots show the disturbance moving into Texas and Mexico over the next few days, and it will stay away from Louisiana. After 48 hours, development is unlikely since it will be interacting with land. However, the rains on the eastern side of it will continue to stream north and east. Areas from SE LA through the FL Panhandle will continue to get a TON of rains with flash flooding likely. Rainfall totals in those areas could be around 4-8"+! Here in Baton Rouge we will start to see a few more showers/storms on Sunday and into Monday.

I will continue to keep an eye on Invest 92L, but it is not expected to track toward Louisiana. Check back with WBRZ, my weather blog and my Facebook/Twitter feeds for additional updates. -Dave

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