Skip to main content

Tropical Storm Chantal Has Formed In The Atlantic

Last Night Tropical Storm Chantal formed WAY out in the Atlantic Ocean in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). You do not typically have many storms forming out there in July, but they can happen especially when the water temperatures are in the 80s.  When they do form that far south, climatology says they usually move quickly to the west and have a hard time developing.  That seems to be the case with Chantal so far.  Winds are sustained at 40 mph and it is moving to the west at 26 mph.  Typically for a storm to intensify you need to to move less than 18 mph.  The storm is forecast to get a little stronger once it moves toward Puerto Rico on Wednesday, but it is not forecast to become a hurricane at this time.

Chantal is forecast to ride along the southern part of a ridge of high pressure sitting over the Eastern Atlantic.  A weakness in the ridge (the current low sitting near the Bahamas will move west into the Gulf) over the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend will help to turn the storm to the north, and it will be sitting off the Florida East Coast as a tropical depression.

However, DO NOT just rely on the center track of the storm, but look at the entire forecast CONE.  Note that the western part of the cone is in the Gulf of Mexico.  This is just something to watch to see if this track holds true over the next few days.  Needless to say, stay tuned!!  Here are the forecast model spaghetti plots for Chantal:


Keep it turned to WBRZ for updates on Chantal. Also check out WBRZ's Hurricane Center Page for updates as well. 

Comments

Anonymous said…
to complete this forecast, I use also the reference website sunpreview.com providing annual weather
July 9, 2013 at 12:37 AM
Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Comparison between Hurricane Matthew's possible forecast track loop vs Hurricane Betsy's

Some of you have been calling to say that Matthew's forecast to do a loop in the Atlantic Ocean off the SE U.S. is the same as what Hurricane Betsy did back in 1965. Well...that is not true. Betsy formed on August 27, 1965 just off the Leeward Islands. It quickly became a tropical storm on the same day, and then became a hurricane on August 29.  It made a few loops in its track with one north of Puerto Rico and a second north of the Bahamas.  There is a strong area of high pressure that was preventing Betsy from moving to the north, and that is what caused it to loop.  After the second loop, it then moved SW across the Bahamas, then turned west to move over far South Florida and then into the Gulf.  It eventually turned to the NW and quickly tracked right to New Orleans where it made landfall as a major hurricane on September 9th. Hurricane Matthew formed in the Atlantic east of the Leeward Islands as a tropical storm on September 28. It quickly moved west into t...
1 comment
Read more

The Great Flood of 1983

It was 30 years ago that the Baton Rouge area experienced what is likely the worst flood in its history!  On April 5-9, 1983 we were hit with 6 to 13 inches of rain from a slow-moving storm.  This rain quickly ran off into the Amite, Comite, Tickfaw and Tangipahoa River Basins.  Some of the highest rainfall totals were in the headwaters of the Amite River in the Felicianas and South Mississippi.  Also, there were some strong easterly winds which slowed down the water from draining into Lake Maurepas and Pontchartrain.  These were some of the reasons why the flooding occurred in Baton Rouge & Denham Springs.  The weather map to the right shows the weather for April 8, 1983. A stalled front over the Southeast U.S. lead to the heavy rain event and flooding. The rivers quickly rose and spilled out of their banks.  The rain didn't stop, so the water continued to rise and rise.  Rivers rose to what are still the record levels.  The Amite in D...
18 comments
Read more

The Unseasonably Cool Weather Continues

Short Term Forecast :  It is a very cold morning across the Capital City with clear skies and temperatures in the 30s.  A light freeze is expected!  I hope that you brought in your plants last night.  Take that jacket with you this morning. An area of high pressure remains over the Southeast U.S. today.  This will keep us sunny and with the northwest winds over us, we will stay cool.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Another freeze is expected tonight for the Baton Rouge area.  We will be clear with calm winds and very good radiational cooling.  Low temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.  The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor from 2 AM to 8 AM Wednesday Morning.  The freeze could last 2 to 6+ hours and that would be long enough to kill any vegetation.  Make sure you bring in your plants or at least cover them tonight!  Bundle ...
34 comments
Read more