Tropical Storm Chantal Has Formed In The Atlantic

Last Night Tropical Storm Chantal formed WAY out in the Atlantic Ocean in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). You do not typically have many storms forming out there in July, but they can happen especially when the water temperatures are in the 80s. When they do form that far south, climatology says they usually move quickly to the west and have a hard time developing. That seems to be the case with Chantal so far. Winds are sustained at 40 mph and it is moving to the west at 26 mph. Typically for a storm to intensify you need to to move less than 18 mph. The storm is forecast to get a little stronger once it moves toward Puerto Rico on Wednesday, but it is not forecast to become a hurricane at this time.

Chantal is forecast to ride along the southern part of a ridge of high pressure sitting over the Eastern Atlantic. A weakness in the ridge (the current low sitting near the Bahamas will move west into the Gulf) over the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend will help to turn the storm to the north, and it will be sitting off the Florida East Coast as a tropical depression.

However, DO NOT just rely on the center track of the storm, but look at the entire forecast CONE. Note that the western part of the cone is in the Gulf of Mexico. This is just something to watch to see if this track holds true over the next few days. Needless to say, stay tuned!! Here are the forecast model spaghetti plots for Chantal:

Keep it turned to WBRZ for updates on Chantal. Also check out WBRZ's Hurricane Center Page for updates as well.

Comments

Anonymous said…

to complete this forecast, I use also the reference website sunpreview.com providing annual weather

July 9, 2013 at 12:37 AM

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