Short Term Forecast: It is a very warm and humid start to this Tuesday with some clouds and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
We will have another hot and humid afternoon across the Capital City thanks to an area of high pressure sitting over the Southeast U.S. There is a large thunderstorm complex over the Great Plains, and this could send some high clouds over us today. If that cloud deck gets too thick we may not get as hot. Otherwise, the area of high pressure is keeping the atmosphere warm from the surface to the mid-levels of the atmosphere, and that limits the amount of storms that can pop-up. You really need some cooler air aloft to get more storms, and we don't have that. Therefore, we will be partly cloudy with only a few storms popping up with the sea breeze. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s with the heat index over 100°.
Some clouds will stick around tonight making it partly cloudy. It will stay warm and humid with lows in the mid 70s.
Week Ahead: The area of high pressure will remain over the Southeast U.S. and into the Gulf from Wednesday through Friday. Each day will be partly cloudy, hot and humid with isolated storms (20-30% chance). High temperatures will be in the mid 90s with the heat index around 100° to 105° each day. We will be partly cloudy, very warm and muggy each night with lows in the mid 70s.
Weekend Outlook: More of the same weather can be expected this weekend, but we will have a slightly better chance of afternoon pop-up storms as extra moisture moves over Baton Rouge from the Gulf. Also, I will watch the remnants of Dorian, which will be a tropical wave, as they move into the Gulf. They could help to give us additional rain. Otherwise, we will be partly cloudy with isolated storms each day. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s.
Tropical Outlook: A trough of low pressure, formerly Dorian and now Invest 91L, is moving toward the Turks and Caicos Islands today. It is a small concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not favorable for redevelopment during the next few days as this system moves to the WNW at 15 mph. NHC is giving it a low chance of development during the next 48 hours.
The forecast models show this system moving across the Southern Bahamas, into the Florida Straits and then into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 5 days. While this may seem ominous since it may move into the Gulf, remember it is NOT a tropical system, but only going to be a tropical wave when it possibly enters the Gulf. It will likely help to produce more rain across the Gulf Coast States and that is it.
Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet, and tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Wednesday.
Try to stay cool and have a good day! -Dave
We will have another hot and humid afternoon across the Capital City thanks to an area of high pressure sitting over the Southeast U.S. There is a large thunderstorm complex over the Great Plains, and this could send some high clouds over us today. If that cloud deck gets too thick we may not get as hot. Otherwise, the area of high pressure is keeping the atmosphere warm from the surface to the mid-levels of the atmosphere, and that limits the amount of storms that can pop-up. You really need some cooler air aloft to get more storms, and we don't have that. Therefore, we will be partly cloudy with only a few storms popping up with the sea breeze. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s with the heat index over 100°.
Some clouds will stick around tonight making it partly cloudy. It will stay warm and humid with lows in the mid 70s.
Week Ahead: The area of high pressure will remain over the Southeast U.S. and into the Gulf from Wednesday through Friday. Each day will be partly cloudy, hot and humid with isolated storms (20-30% chance). High temperatures will be in the mid 90s with the heat index around 100° to 105° each day. We will be partly cloudy, very warm and muggy each night with lows in the mid 70s.
Weekend Outlook: More of the same weather can be expected this weekend, but we will have a slightly better chance of afternoon pop-up storms as extra moisture moves over Baton Rouge from the Gulf. Also, I will watch the remnants of Dorian, which will be a tropical wave, as they move into the Gulf. They could help to give us additional rain. Otherwise, we will be partly cloudy with isolated storms each day. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s.
Tropical Outlook: A trough of low pressure, formerly Dorian and now Invest 91L, is moving toward the Turks and Caicos Islands today. It is a small concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not favorable for redevelopment during the next few days as this system moves to the WNW at 15 mph. NHC is giving it a low chance of development during the next 48 hours.
The forecast models show this system moving across the Southern Bahamas, into the Florida Straits and then into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 5 days. While this may seem ominous since it may move into the Gulf, remember it is NOT a tropical system, but only going to be a tropical wave when it possibly enters the Gulf. It will likely help to produce more rain across the Gulf Coast States and that is it.
Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet, and tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Wednesday.
Try to stay cool and have a good day! -Dave
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