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Hot With More Scattered Storms Today

Short Term Forecast:  We have a pretty quiet start to this Tuesday with some clouds and patchy fog.  Temperatures are in the 70s.

Expect another afternoon just like we had on Monday...it will be hot and humid with partly cloudy skies to start the afternoon.  Then we will have scattered showers and storms popping up.  Some of the storms could have heavy rain at times.  High temperatures will be in the lower 90s.

The storms will continue into the evening hours before they dissipate overnight.  Then we will have a few clouds with low temperatures in the mid 70s.

Week Ahead:  We are going to have the same weather pattern on Wednesday and Thursday as an area of high pressure sits along the East Coast and continues to pump in Gulf Moisture over us.  Each day will have partly cloudy skies with isolated to scattered showers and storms thanks to the sea breeze.  It will be hot and humid with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s.

A cold front is forecast to move close to Louisiana on Friday, but it does not look like it will make it much farther south of I-10.  This means we will continue to dodge scattered afternoon showers and storms.  Highs will be in the lower 90s and lows in the mid 70s on Friday Night with some clouds and a few showers possible.

Weekend Outlook:  Since the back-door cold front does not look like it will push through Baton Rouge, we will not have the drier air coming to town.  Therefore, we will stay hot and humid with isolated showers and storms on Saturday with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s.

I will be watching a tropical wave (TUTT Low (tropical upper tropospheric upper trough)) that will be stalled over the Eastern Gulf this weekend.  It looks like it may get kicked toward Louisiana on Sunday, and this could lead to a greater chance of rain now.  I'm also watching to see where Chantal will track too.  Plan for partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and storms on Sunday.  Highs will be in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s.

Tropical Outlook:  Tropical Storm Chantal is a little stronger this morning with winds of 50 mph as it sits near Barbados.  It is still moving very fast to the WNW at 26 mph.  It will continue on this track today and move into the Eastern Caribbean.  The forecast calls for it to get stronger on Wednesday as it approaches the Island of Hispaniola with 70 mph winds.  It will weaken over the mountainous terrain of the island, and then track toward the Bahamas.  Yesterday, the forecast had it becoming a tropical depression off the East Coast of Florida by Saturday.  Now, it is expected to remain a tropical storm over the Bahamas and it could possible turn toward Florida on Sunday/Monday.  There is a chance now that is could track across Florida and move into the Gulf of Mexico next week.  Needless to say, I will be watching the trends in the forecast models over the next week to see if that holds true.  Stay tuned to more updates all week!

Below are the forecast track and forecast models:
 

Elsewhere...I'm watching another tropical wave behind Chantal.  Some of the forecast models are hinting at that system developing as well.

Other than those features, the rest of the tropics are quiet and will stay that way for the next 24 hours.

Stay dry and cool today.  Have a good one! -Dave

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