The remnants of Barbara, the hurricane that hit Southern Mexico on Thursday, is now being investigated for possible tropical development in the Bay of Campeche, or Southern Gulf of Mexico. It has been called Invest 90L.
The GFS (American), ECMWF (European) and Canadian models have been picking up on this the last few days (see my blog posts from the last 2 days). It looks like it will be slow to develop thanks to some wind shear, but it will begin to relax later next week. Also, a cold front will move into the Northern Gulf Sunday Night/Monday. The front will be falling apart, and sometimes when that happens, it helps to form an area of low pressure. At the moment, the forecast models show it developing into an area of low pressure, and moving northeast into the Central Gulf of Mexico where water temperatures are in the lower 80s - you need a minimum water temperature of 80 for a storm to form. Once it is in the South-Central Gulf the models take it anywhere from Louisiana to Florida later next week. This is assuming it forms into something. I will update this blog post with the forecast spaghetti plots once they come out later today.
Whether this forms into something or not, it will likely send some pretty heavy rains across the Gulf Coast States, especially Florida, late next week.
There are 2 historical storms that have formed early in the Gulf: Cat. 1 Hurricane Allison (June 3-11, 1995) and Tropical Storm Arlene (June 8-14, 2005). Allison made landfall in the Florida Panhandle near Panama City, and Arlene made landfall near Gulf Shores/Orange Beach/Pensacola.
Needless to say, Hurricane Season starts tomorrow, June 1st, and I will be keeping an eye on it all weekend. Keep it tuned to WBRZ and my weather blogs for additional updates.
The GFS (American), ECMWF (European) and Canadian models have been picking up on this the last few days (see my blog posts from the last 2 days). It looks like it will be slow to develop thanks to some wind shear, but it will begin to relax later next week. Also, a cold front will move into the Northern Gulf Sunday Night/Monday. The front will be falling apart, and sometimes when that happens, it helps to form an area of low pressure. At the moment, the forecast models show it developing into an area of low pressure, and moving northeast into the Central Gulf of Mexico where water temperatures are in the lower 80s - you need a minimum water temperature of 80 for a storm to form. Once it is in the South-Central Gulf the models take it anywhere from Louisiana to Florida later next week. This is assuming it forms into something. I will update this blog post with the forecast spaghetti plots once they come out later today.
Whether this forms into something or not, it will likely send some pretty heavy rains across the Gulf Coast States, especially Florida, late next week.
There are 2 historical storms that have formed early in the Gulf: Cat. 1 Hurricane Allison (June 3-11, 1995) and Tropical Storm Arlene (June 8-14, 2005). Allison made landfall in the Florida Panhandle near Panama City, and Arlene made landfall near Gulf Shores/Orange Beach/Pensacola.
Needless to say, Hurricane Season starts tomorrow, June 1st, and I will be keeping an eye on it all weekend. Keep it tuned to WBRZ and my weather blogs for additional updates.
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