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Possible Strong to Severe Storms on Christmas Eve and Day for Baton Rouge

I've been looking at the latest forecast models for Christmas Eve and Day.  Unfortunately, it looks like a strong cold front will move into and through Baton Rouge with some rough weather.

Ahead of the front we will become very warm and humid at the surface thanks to a warm front that will move from the Gulf northward over us (This is the same cold front that will move through Baton Rouge on Sunday Night/Monday Morning.  It will stall along the coast on Monday.).  Plenty of energy will also be moving over us aloft.  All of this means we will have a very unstable environment in place which is favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop.  Any storms that develop ahead of the front will be capable of becoming supercells and that means they could rotate thanks to some strong wind shear aloft.  This would mean the storms could produce tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail starting on late Christmas Eve Night into Christmas Day Morning.  Everyone should be prepared for some rough weather!

The cold front will move through town by Christmas Day Evening.  The models show a squall-line will form and push through Baton Rouge.  The thunderstorms in the line are expected to be strong to severe with damaging winds being the main threat.  However, a tornado or two will still be possible due to amount of mid to upper-level wind shear in place.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has us in a Slight Risk for severe weather starting on Christmas Day at 6 AM and lasting through the day. This could be upgraded to a moderate risk in the next day.  Click on the image to the left for the details.  This is still 2 days out, and things could still change.  However, the forecast models have been pretty consistent with showing this threat for severe weather the last few days.  Hence the reason why I am addressing this now.

Once the cold front passes through Baton Rouge by Christmas Day Evening our threat for severe weather will be over.  Then the temperatures will rapidly fall from the 70s into the 50s to the 30s overnight into Wednesday.  Brrr!

I know many of you will be running around, traveling, heading to Church and taking part in family activities during the next 2 days.  However, it is very important to be aware of this developing situation even through it is Christmas.  Please have your weather radios or weather alert apps on standby to alert you to any severe weather.  Also, keep it tuned to WBRZ News 2 and our Cable Weather Channel for updates.

Stay safe, be prepared and have a Merry Christmas!  -Dave

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