Invest 97L, the broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean, remains disorganized today. There have been some flare-ups of thunderstorms this morning, but they are not all wrapping around the center of circulation. It will move to the northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula today and over the Peninsula tonight. Then the system will emerge in the Southern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday.
Upper-level winds are expected to be somewhat favorable for possible development of this low Thursday and Friday and it could form into a tropical depression. Then those winds will get much stronger as the low approaches the Northern Gulf Coast thanks to a strong cold front moving across the U.S. That would prevent the low from getting stronger. We will have to wait and see how it develops throughout today and tomorrow.
As for the strength of this low...some of the forecast models are showing this could become a tropical depression or even a Tropical Storm Karen during the next few days. A few models are even hinting at this could become a hurricane. The forecast model plots are tracking the low northward toward Louisiana, but then send it more northeast as the strong cold front sweeps across the U.S.
As mentioned above, it looks like the timing of the front should send this low east of Louisiana. However, depending on the position of the low when the front arrives, we could have some heavier rain over Southeast Louisiana. If the cold front would slow down, the forecast would change and the low may directly affect part of the Gulf Coast States. Needless to say, this system will have a difficult time getting organized.
I will be closely watching the evolution of this low/system. Be sure to check my weather blog over the next few days for additional updates! -Meteorologist Dave Nussbaum
Upper-level winds are expected to be somewhat favorable for possible development of this low Thursday and Friday and it could form into a tropical depression. Then those winds will get much stronger as the low approaches the Northern Gulf Coast thanks to a strong cold front moving across the U.S. That would prevent the low from getting stronger. We will have to wait and see how it develops throughout today and tomorrow.
As for the strength of this low...some of the forecast models are showing this could become a tropical depression or even a Tropical Storm Karen during the next few days. A few models are even hinting at this could become a hurricane. The forecast model plots are tracking the low northward toward Louisiana, but then send it more northeast as the strong cold front sweeps across the U.S.
As mentioned above, it looks like the timing of the front should send this low east of Louisiana. However, depending on the position of the low when the front arrives, we could have some heavier rain over Southeast Louisiana. If the cold front would slow down, the forecast would change and the low may directly affect part of the Gulf Coast States. Needless to say, this system will have a difficult time getting organized.
I will be closely watching the evolution of this low/system. Be sure to check my weather blog over the next few days for additional updates! -Meteorologist Dave Nussbaum
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