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Better Chance For Rain and Storms This Week

Short Term Forecast:  This Labor Day is starting off with a very warm and muggy morning.  Temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s under mostly clear skies.

We will have a hot and more humid afternoon across the Baton Rouge area as the eastern edge of a ridge of high pressure moves closer to Louisiana.  At the same time, another area of high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will move to the east, and this will start to pump in Gulf Moisture over Louisiana.  This will give us partly cloudy skies with spotty showers and storms today.  However, it will not be enough rain to cancel any Labor Day plans you might have.  High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s.


Any rain that forms will dissipate by 9 PM and then we will be left with some lingering clouds overnight.  It will stay warm and muggy with lows in the mid 70s.

Week Ahead:  The eastern edge of the ridge will move over Louisiana on Tuesday and that will allow for a cold front to move closer to us from the north.  We will have plenty of Gulf Moisture over us too.  You can expect partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and storms.  Highs will be in the lower 90s.  Tuesday Night will be partly cloudy and steamy with lows in the mid 70s.


The cold front will get to Baton Rouge on Wednesday and stall over us through Thursday.  We will have scattered showers and storms on Wednesday, but more isolated storms on Thursday. Highs will be in the lower 90s before the rain starts.  Lows will be in the lower 70s each night.

The front will dissipate over us on Friday.  However, there will be just enough energy in it to set off a few afternoon thunderstorms.  Highs will be in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s on Friday Night with partly cloudy skies.

Weekend Outlook:  We will return to a more typically Summer-time weather pattern on Saturday and Sunday.  That means we will have partly cloudy skies with isolated pop-up afternoon showers and storms.  It will be hot and humid with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s each day.

Tropical Outlook:  I'm watching a weak tropical wave located over the NW Caribbean.  It will move over the Yucatan Peninsula today and into the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday.  Some development is possible starting on Tuesday through the end of the week as it moves over the warm waters.  NHC is giving it a low chance of development over the next 5 days.  I'll keep an eye on it since it will be in the Gulf, but it looks like it will track to the west and stay south of Louisiana.

I'm also watching an elongated area of low pressure (Invest 97L) stretching from the Eastern Caribbean across the Lesser Antilles and into the Atlantic Ocean.  Upper-level winds are favorable for development, but there is a lot of dry air around the disturbance, and that would prevent it from developing.  NHC is giving it a medium chance for development in the next 2 to 5 days as it moves to the WNW at 10 mph.  It will track over the Caribbean to Hispaniola and Cuba over the next few days.


There are a few more tropical waves coming off of Africa that I'm watching too, and they could possibly develop into something over the next 2 weeks.

Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet and they will stay that way through Tuesday.

I hope you have a nice Labor Day and stay cool! -Dave

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