The tropical wave/broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean is now Invest 92L. It is becoming better organized this afternoon, and conditions appear to be somewhat favorable for development over the next few days as it moves toward the Yucatan Peninsula at 10 to 15 mph. The NHC is giving it a high chance of becoming a tropical system in the next 2 days. It could become a tropical depression before it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday. Once is crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, upper-level winds are still forecast to be somewhat favorable for development of this system by the weekend as it sits over the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
The question remains does it develop into anything, and where is it going to go? If it doesn't develop before the Yucatan Peninsula, according to the ECMWF model, then it is likely the system will continue moving to the WNW and into Mexico/Texas, but it will send some deep tropical moisture northward toward the Gulf Coast States and that will lead to a heavy rain event.
If it does develop, according to the GFS model, then we could have a tropical system in the Gulf by the end of the week. It is too early to make that call and to say how strong it could be. This model is showing the system moving northeast toward the LA/MS/AL area with some very heavy rain expected no matter how strong it will be. A cold front and trough of low pressure will be stalled along the Gulf Coast this weekend. This will help to draw the system toward it, and this will spread heavy rain from Louisiana eastward into Florida. It will NOT be good weather for the Gulf Coast Beaches. Our in house RPM model wants to make it into at least a tropical storm by the weekend and move north to the TX/LA border.
As you can tell, the models are ALL OVER THE PLACE. Remember, this system has not formed into anything yet and the models clearly do not agree. However, the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system on Thursday, if necessary. Once they start getting data on it, then the models will likely start to agree. Needless to say, I will be closely watching this system for you!
There is also an area of low pressure, Invest 93L, located WAY out in the Atlantic near the Coast of Africa and Cape Verde Islands. It has a medium chance for development as it moves to the west over the next few days.
Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet.
Stay tuned to my weather blog for additional updates over the next few days as well as WBRZ-TV! -Dave
The question remains does it develop into anything, and where is it going to go? If it doesn't develop before the Yucatan Peninsula, according to the ECMWF model, then it is likely the system will continue moving to the WNW and into Mexico/Texas, but it will send some deep tropical moisture northward toward the Gulf Coast States and that will lead to a heavy rain event.
If it does develop, according to the GFS model, then we could have a tropical system in the Gulf by the end of the week. It is too early to make that call and to say how strong it could be. This model is showing the system moving northeast toward the LA/MS/AL area with some very heavy rain expected no matter how strong it will be. A cold front and trough of low pressure will be stalled along the Gulf Coast this weekend. This will help to draw the system toward it, and this will spread heavy rain from Louisiana eastward into Florida. It will NOT be good weather for the Gulf Coast Beaches. Our in house RPM model wants to make it into at least a tropical storm by the weekend and move north to the TX/LA border.
As you can tell, the models are ALL OVER THE PLACE. Remember, this system has not formed into anything yet and the models clearly do not agree. However, the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system on Thursday, if necessary. Once they start getting data on it, then the models will likely start to agree. Needless to say, I will be closely watching this system for you!
There is also an area of low pressure, Invest 93L, located WAY out in the Atlantic near the Coast of Africa and Cape Verde Islands. It has a medium chance for development as it moves to the west over the next few days.
Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet.
Stay tuned to my weather blog for additional updates over the next few days as well as WBRZ-TV! -Dave
Comments