Short Term Forecast: We have a mostly cloudy morning with showers moving across Southeast Louisiana. The rain will start to increase in coverage and thunderstorms will also pop-up as we move through the morning hours. Be sure to have your umbrella with you today! Temperatures are starting out in the 70s.
A cold front is slowly moving south into Louisiana along with a disturbance that is moving along it. Combine that with plenty of tropical moisture over Baton Rouge and daytime heating and that will give us scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be strong to severe at times. Heavy rain is very likely as well. Flash flooding could be an issue later today as rainfall totals could be around 1 to 3 inches across Southeast Louisiana, and some places could get even more. The rain will help to keep high temperatures only in the upper 80s.
The cold front will move toward the Louisiana Coast tonight. This will keep us mostly cloudy with a few showers. Low temperatures will fall to the lower 70s.
Rest of the Week: The cold front will then stall along the Northern Gulf Coast, and that is where it will stay on Thursday through the weekend. Some drier air will move in behind it, and that will help to dry us out. it will also make it a little less humid! We will be partly cloudy with only a few showers/storms possible on Thursday. Highs will be around 90. Thursday Night will be mostly clear and it will be cooler with lows in the upper 60s! How nice does that sound!?
Friday will be partly cloudy with only a slight chance for a pop-up shower. Highs will be in the lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s on Friday Night.
Weekend Forecast: The drier air will still be over us on Saturday. This will keep it partly cloudy and less humid with only a slight chance for a shower. Highs will be in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s.
The weather may start to really change on Sunday. This all depends on what Invest 92L, currently in the Caribbean, does. If this system becomes a tropical system it will be pulled northward into the Gulf by the cold front/trough of low pressure that is sitting over the Northern Gulf. This will draw up some very deep tropical moisture and that will lead to showers and storms in Baton Rouge with very heavy rain from the MS to FL Coasts. If it does not develop into a tropical system, some deep tropical moisture will stream up from the Caribbean anyway, but the heaviest rains may stay east of Louisiana. Needless to say, we will have to wait and see how Invest 92L evolves. As of right now, I'm calling for partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and storms over Baton Rouge on Sunday. Highs will be in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s.
Tropical Outlook: The tropical wave/broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean is now Invest 92L. It remains disorganized, but conditions appear to be somewhat favorable for development over the next few days as it moves toward the Yucatan Peninsula at 10 to 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to be favorable for development of this system by the end of the week as it sits over the Southern Gulf of Mexico. The question remains whether or not it develops into anything. If it doesn't, according to the ECMWF model, then it is likely the system will continue moving to the west and into Mexico, but it will send some deep tropical moisture northward toward the Gulf Coast States and that will lead to a heavy rain event.
If it does develop, according to the GFS model, then we would have a tropical system in the Gulf. It is too early to make that call and to say how strong it will be. This model is showing the system moving northeast toward the MS/AL/FL area with some very heavy rain expected no matter how strong it will be. I will be closely watching this system for you!
There is also an area of low pressure, Invest 93L, located WAY out in the Atlantic near the Coast of Africa and Cape Verde Islands. It has a medium chance for development as it moves to the west over the next few days.
Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet.
Be sure to keep your umbrella with you and watch out for some flash flooding today! Have a good day! -Dave
A cold front is slowly moving south into Louisiana along with a disturbance that is moving along it. Combine that with plenty of tropical moisture over Baton Rouge and daytime heating and that will give us scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be strong to severe at times. Heavy rain is very likely as well. Flash flooding could be an issue later today as rainfall totals could be around 1 to 3 inches across Southeast Louisiana, and some places could get even more. The rain will help to keep high temperatures only in the upper 80s.
The cold front will move toward the Louisiana Coast tonight. This will keep us mostly cloudy with a few showers. Low temperatures will fall to the lower 70s.
Rest of the Week: The cold front will then stall along the Northern Gulf Coast, and that is where it will stay on Thursday through the weekend. Some drier air will move in behind it, and that will help to dry us out. it will also make it a little less humid! We will be partly cloudy with only a few showers/storms possible on Thursday. Highs will be around 90. Thursday Night will be mostly clear and it will be cooler with lows in the upper 60s! How nice does that sound!?
Friday will be partly cloudy with only a slight chance for a pop-up shower. Highs will be in the lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s on Friday Night.
Weekend Forecast: The drier air will still be over us on Saturday. This will keep it partly cloudy and less humid with only a slight chance for a shower. Highs will be in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s.
The weather may start to really change on Sunday. This all depends on what Invest 92L, currently in the Caribbean, does. If this system becomes a tropical system it will be pulled northward into the Gulf by the cold front/trough of low pressure that is sitting over the Northern Gulf. This will draw up some very deep tropical moisture and that will lead to showers and storms in Baton Rouge with very heavy rain from the MS to FL Coasts. If it does not develop into a tropical system, some deep tropical moisture will stream up from the Caribbean anyway, but the heaviest rains may stay east of Louisiana. Needless to say, we will have to wait and see how Invest 92L evolves. As of right now, I'm calling for partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and storms over Baton Rouge on Sunday. Highs will be in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s.
Tropical Outlook: The tropical wave/broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean is now Invest 92L. It remains disorganized, but conditions appear to be somewhat favorable for development over the next few days as it moves toward the Yucatan Peninsula at 10 to 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to be favorable for development of this system by the end of the week as it sits over the Southern Gulf of Mexico. The question remains whether or not it develops into anything. If it doesn't, according to the ECMWF model, then it is likely the system will continue moving to the west and into Mexico, but it will send some deep tropical moisture northward toward the Gulf Coast States and that will lead to a heavy rain event.
If it does develop, according to the GFS model, then we would have a tropical system in the Gulf. It is too early to make that call and to say how strong it will be. This model is showing the system moving northeast toward the MS/AL/FL area with some very heavy rain expected no matter how strong it will be. I will be closely watching this system for you!
There is also an area of low pressure, Invest 93L, located WAY out in the Atlantic near the Coast of Africa and Cape Verde Islands. It has a medium chance for development as it moves to the west over the next few days.
Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet.
Be sure to keep your umbrella with you and watch out for some flash flooding today! Have a good day! -Dave
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