Skip to main content

What is going on with Invest 96L in the Atlantic?

Many of you have been asking about this tropical wave in the Atlantic.  You've also seen some images of the forecast models on Facebook and Twitter showing it heading into the Gulf of Mexico and possibly toward Louisiana.  Let me tell you that you should NOT always believe what you see.

For example, one of the forecast models, the GFS, showed this system headed toward Texas on Tuesday early morning, Louisiana on Tuesday Afternoon, Texas on Tuesday Evening, AL/FL coast this morning and SE Florida as of this writing.  You can see how quickly this has changed, and it will constantly do this until an actual system has formed.  Therefore, take these forecast model plots or spaghetti plots with a grain of salt for now.  If and when a system has formed, I will have a better idea of where it could go based off of the data

Now with all of that in mind, I am watching a tropical wave out in the Atlantic Ocean that has been named Invest 96L.  It is trying to become better organized, but it is fighting some wind shear and dry air.  There is a very broad, or elongated circulation associated with it along with thunderstorms.  However, the NHC is now giving it a medium chance for some development in the next 1-2 days, and a high chance for development in the next 5 days.  It remains west of the Caribbean Sea,  but is moving west at 12 mph with estimated 30 mph winds.  Needless to say, it is still very far away from Louisiana.

Since Invest 96 is not an organized system so computer models don't have a real center to grab onto.  Therefore, do not rely heavily in the forecast of this disturbance just yet.  At the moment, the models do take whatever it becomes into the Northern Caribbean toward Hispaniola and track it right over Cuba.  If it were take , so we will be watching it very closely.  Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.  Once they get data from Invest 96L, it is then added to the forecast models, and that will give us a little more accurate depiction of how it may evolve.

So...right now it is worth watching because are in the middle of August and this is the time of year for storms to form where Invest 96L is located.  At the moment, the models forecast the system to get a little stronger and organized in a few days - possibly becoming a tropical depression, IF it can survive the dry air and wind shear.  Then the models show it tracking over Hispaniola and Cuba.  If that happens, the system would have to survive going over 10,000 ft. mountains, and that usually doesn't fair well for storms.  This will bring some heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola and Cuba.  I would venture to say that if it does develop, it would be poorly organized.  Basically, I will watch it, and we will see what happens over the next few days.  

Please keep it tuned to WWL-TV, our social media pages, and this webpage for additional updates as needed. 

Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet.


Popular posts from this blog

The Unseasonably Cool Weather Continues

Short Term Forecast:  It is a very cold morning across the Capital City with clear skies and temperatures in the 30s.  A light freeze is expected!  I hope that you brought in your plants last night.  Take that jacket with you this morning.

An area of high pressure remains over the Southeast U.S. today.  This will keep us sunny and with the northwest winds over us, we will stay cool.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s.

Another freeze is expected tonight for the Baton Rouge area.  We will be clear with calm winds and very good radiational cooling.  Low temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.  The NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor from 2 AM to 8 AM Wednesday Morning.  The freeze could last 2 to 6+ hours and that would be long enough to kill any vegetation.  Make sure you bring in your plants or at least cover them tonight!  Bundle up!

Week Ahead:  The area of high pressure will stay put through Wednesday. …

Major Snowstorm Headed To Northeast US Tomorrow

For all of my friends and family that live in the Northeast is my latest analysis of the winter storm heading your way on Friday into Saturday:

The same area of low pressure that brought the heavy rain and thunderstorms to Louisiana last night and this morning will be moving up the East Coast on Friday.  It will get much stronger and become a  Nor' Easter that will impact all the major cities from Philly to NYC to Boston as well as inland areas.

Delmarva to NJ Coastal Areas:  Winter Storm Warning in effect from Friday AM until Saturday AM!  It looks like it will start out as a brief period of snow along the coast in the morning then change into a windy rain during the day.  Then go to a heavy snow late Friday into Saturday Morning.  Snow accumulations of 4-8" are possible.  Some minor ice accumulations are possible too. Winds will be sustained around 30+ mph and coastal erosion will be possible too.

NE PA: Winter Storm Warning from 10 am Friday until 7 am Saturday! …

Deadliest and Strongest Tornadoes In Louisiana History

If you are wondering what is the deadliest tornado ever to hit in the Baton Rouge was back on April 24, 1908 in Amite, LA to Purvis, MS.  (Grazulis, Thomas P. (1993). Significant Tornadoes 1680-1991: A Chronology and Analysis of Events. Environmental Films)  143 people lost their lives.  This was part of the 1908 Dixie Tornado Outbreak.  The storm started around 11:45 AM near Weiss, LA in Livingston Parish and tracked toward St. Helena Parish.  2 people were killed in Denham Springs and 2 in Montpelier.   Then it tracked toward Amite, LA where a path of damage was around 2 miles wide.  29 people were killed there.  It then traveled on the ground to Purvis, MS where the greatest damage was and most of the lives were lost.  The damage path was around 155 miles long.  

The F-Scale and  EF-Scale didn't exist then, so it was not given a rating at the time.  However, using recent technology and assessments, the storm would have been given an F-4 or EF-4 rating.  
This tornado wa…