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What is going on with Invest 96L in the Atlantic?

Many of you have been asking about this tropical wave in the Atlantic.  You've also seen some images of the forecast models on Facebook and Twitter showing it heading into the Gulf of Mexico and possibly toward Louisiana.  Let me tell you that you should NOT always believe what you see.

For example, one of the forecast models, the GFS, showed this system headed toward Texas on Tuesday early morning, Louisiana on Tuesday Afternoon, Texas on Tuesday Evening, AL/FL coast this morning and SE Florida as of this writing.  You can see how quickly this has changed, and it will constantly do this until an actual system has formed.  Therefore, take these forecast model plots or spaghetti plots with a grain of salt for now.  If and when a system has formed, I will have a better idea of where it could go based off of the data

Now with all of that in mind, I am watching a tropical wave out in the Atlantic Ocean that has been named Invest 96L.  It is trying to become better organized, but it is fighting some wind shear and dry air.  There is a very broad, or elongated circulation associated with it along with thunderstorms.  However, the NHC is now giving it a medium chance for some development in the next 1-2 days, and a high chance for development in the next 5 days.  It remains west of the Caribbean Sea,  but is moving west at 12 mph with estimated 30 mph winds.  Needless to say, it is still very far away from Louisiana.

Since Invest 96 is not an organized system so computer models don't have a real center to grab onto.  Therefore, do not rely heavily in the forecast of this disturbance just yet.  At the moment, the models do take whatever it becomes into the Northern Caribbean toward Hispaniola and track it right over Cuba.  If it were take , so we will be watching it very closely.  Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.  Once they get data from Invest 96L, it is then added to the forecast models, and that will give us a little more accurate depiction of how it may evolve.

So...right now it is worth watching because are in the middle of August and this is the time of year for storms to form where Invest 96L is located.  At the moment, the models forecast the system to get a little stronger and organized in a few days - possibly becoming a tropical depression, IF it can survive the dry air and wind shear.  Then the models show it tracking over Hispaniola and Cuba.  If that happens, the system would have to survive going over 10,000 ft. mountains, and that usually doesn't fair well for storms.  This will bring some heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola and Cuba.  I would venture to say that if it does develop, it would be poorly organized.  Basically, I will watch it, and we will see what happens over the next few days.  

Please keep it tuned to WWL-TV, our social media pages, and this webpage for additional updates as needed. 

Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet.

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