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A Hot and Mainly Dry Week Ahead, Plus Humberto Forms In The Tropics

Short Term Forecast:  We have a warm, but somewhat pleasant morning across the Baton Rouge area.  The skies are mostly clear with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

We will have a pretty nice day with little to no rain.  An area of high pressure will start to build eastward from the Plains States and that will help to bring in some drier air.  This will make it partly cloud with only spotty showers and storms.  Highs will be in the mid 90s.  The heat index will only be around 100.

You can expect mostly clear skies tonight.  It will be warm and not too muggy.  Lows will be in the lower 70s.

Week Ahead:  As the ridge of high pressure builds to the east on Tuesday and Wednesday, Louisiana will be on the eastern edge of it.  This will allow for a few disturbances to moves southward along it, and they will track over Baton Rouge.  Those disturbances will allow for a slightly better chance of rain.  Therefore, we will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated showers and thunderstorms each day.  Highs will be in the lower 90s.  Each night will have a few clouds with lows in the lower 70s.

Thursday and Friday will have a lower chance of some rain as the ridge sits over us.  We will be partly cloudy with only stray showers possible.  Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the lower 70s.

Weekend Outlook:  The ridge of high pressure will retrograde to the west by the weekend, and a trough of low pressure will move southward along the East Coast.  This will send a cold front toward Louisiana.  The front will not really live up to its name, but it will help to set off a few showers and storms Saturday and Sunday.  Otherwise, we will be partly cloudy with highs in the lower 90s.  It will be a little less humid at night and a tad "cooler" with lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

Tropical Outlook:  Tropical Depression #9 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Humberto this morning.  It is located about 145 miles SE of the Cape Verde Islands.  Winds are up to 40 mph and the pressure is 1005 mph.  It is moving to the west at 12 mph.  It is forecast to slow down and increase in intensity.  Humberto is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday and this will be the first hurricane of the 2013 season.  If it happens after 8 AM on Wednesday, this will be the latest forming hurricane of any season in the modern satellite era!  The current latest forming hurricane ever was Gustav in 2002.  The storm is forecast to stay out at sea.

The remnants of Gabrielle are located to the 500 miles SE of Bermuda.  The is a lot of wind shear over the mass of showers and storms.  NHC is giving this system a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days as it moves to the NNE.

Lastly, a broad area of low pressure could form over the Bay of Campeche in the next few days if it remains over the warm waters.  NHC is giving this system a low to medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 2 to 5 days.

Elsewhere...the rest of the tropics are quiet and they will stay that way through Tuesday.

Try to stay cool and have a great Monday! -Dave


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